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Articles 1 - 25 of 25
Full-Text Articles in Behavioral Economics
Prediction Markets To Forecast Electricity Demand, Peter Cramton, Luciano De Castro
Prediction Markets To Forecast Electricity Demand, Peter Cramton, Luciano De Castro
Luciano I. de Castro
Forecasting electricity demand for future years is an essential step in resource planning. A common approach is for the system operator to predict future demand from the estimates of individual distribution companies. However, the predictions thus obtained may be of poor quality, since the reporting incentives are unclear. We propose a prediction market as a form of forecasting future demand for electricity. We describe how to implement a simple prediction market for continuous variables, using only contracts based on binary variables. We also discuss specific issues concerning the implementation of such a market.
Competition-Based Environmental Policy: An Analysis Of Farmland Preservation In Maryland, John K. Horowitz, Lori Lynch, Andrew J. Stocking
Competition-Based Environmental Policy: An Analysis Of Farmland Preservation In Maryland, John K. Horowitz, Lori Lynch, Andrew J. Stocking
Andrew J Stocking
Policy makers have turned to competition-based voluntary-enrollment programs as a cost-effective way to achieve preferred land uses. This paper studies bidder behavior in an innovative auction-based program in which farmers compete to sell and retire the right to develop their land. We derive a reduced-form bidding model that includes private and common values. This model allows us to estimate the role of bidder competition, winner’s curse correction, and the underlying distribution of private values. We estimate that the auction enrolled as many as 3,000 acres (12%) more than a take-it-or-leave-it offer would have enrolled for the same budgetary cost.
Rationality And Humanity: A View From Feminist Economics, Julie A. Nelson
Rationality And Humanity: A View From Feminist Economics, Julie A. Nelson
Economics Faculty Publication Series
DOES RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY (RCT) HAVE SOMETHING IMPORTANT to contribute to the humanities? Usually the arguments for answering “yes” to this question go something like the following: The application of RCT has proved to be a powerful tool in economics and the social sciences, leading to clear and rigorous insights unattainable from less precise methods. Therefore, by also harnessing this power, the disciplines in the humanities could advance toward becoming more elegant, rational, and forceful in their explorations of human behavior. As an economist, I’d like to address this argument on its home ground. Has the use of RCT advanced …
Rationality And Humanity: A View From Feminist Economics, Julie A. Nelson
Rationality And Humanity: A View From Feminist Economics, Julie A. Nelson
Julie A. Nelson
DOES RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY (RCT) HAVE SOMETHING IMPORTANT to contribute to the humanities? Usually the arguments for answering “yes” to this question go something like the following: The application of RCT has proved to be a powerful tool in economics and the social sciences, leading to clear and rigorous insights unattainable from less precise methods. Therefore, by also harnessing this power, the disciplines in the humanities could advance toward becoming more elegant, rational, and forceful in their explorations of human behavior. As an economist, I’d like to address this argument on its home ground. Has the use of RCT advanced …
A Nation In Dilemma, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed
A Nation In Dilemma, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed
Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed
following the Global financial Crisis there were economic collapses in all the world. Sudan officials claimed that the country was immune from that epidemic. Such declaration were truly weird as it has been deeply affected from the first instant. That article presented many questions about the economic and social conditions and the eminent southern Sudan, Darfur crises.
Teaching Ecological And Feminist Economics In The Principles Course, Julie A. Nelson, Neva Goodwin
Teaching Ecological And Feminist Economics In The Principles Course, Julie A. Nelson, Neva Goodwin
Economics Faculty Publication Series
It can be difficult to incorporate ecological and feminist concerns into introductory courses, when one is also obliged to teach neoclassical analysis. In this essay we briefly describe how one might extend existing “multi-paradigmatic” approaches to feminist and ecological concerns, and then present an new alternative approach that may be more suitable for some students. This “broader questions and bigger toolbox” approach can be applied in both microeconomics and macroeconomics introductory classrooms.
There Should Be Little Or No Liquidity Discounts For Controlling Interests In Closely Held Businesses, Michael Sack Elmaleh
There Should Be Little Or No Liquidity Discounts For Controlling Interests In Closely Held Businesses, Michael Sack Elmaleh
Michael Sack Elmaleh
The application of liquidity discounts to the appraised values of controlling interests in closely held businesses reflects a failure of the valuation community to fully appreciate the fact that these equity interests belong to a fundamentally different investment class than publicly traded securities. Investors in publicly traded securities have dramatically different expectations about the benefits and sacrifices of such investments, compared to the expectations of benefits and sacrifices of investors in closely held companies. Investors in publicly traded securities expect their minority interest investments to be highly liquid, yield free cash flow, and require no participation in the management of …
Teaching Ecological And Feminist Economics In The Principles Course, Julie A. Nelson
Teaching Ecological And Feminist Economics In The Principles Course, Julie A. Nelson
Julie A. Nelson
It can be difficult to incorporate ecological and feminist concerns into introductory courses, when one is also obliged to teach neoclassical analysis. In this essay we briefly describe how one might extend existing “multi-paradigmatic” approaches to feminist and ecological concerns, and then present an new alternative approach that may be more suitable for some students. This “broader questions and bigger toolbox” approach can be applied in both microeconomics and macroeconomics introductory classrooms.
The Janjaweed And The Armed Movements Of Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed
The Janjaweed And The Armed Movements Of Sudan, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed
Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed
The emergence of the Janjaweed as an armed force working with the government to suppress rebellions in Darfur region outraged the international community. They were marked by brutality, destruction, burning, killings and mass rapes. They were also described as Arabs. However, that was not the whole picture, no one observed the living conditions of the Arabs or how were they victims also as the other inhabitants of Darfur. No one also observed that they were used by the Ingaz government to execute the dirty work and bear the consequences. The Arab tribes however, also had other thoughts as they realized …
Assessing The Viability Of Investment In Sudan (1979-2008), Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed
Assessing The Viability Of Investment In Sudan (1979-2008), Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed
Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed
Most developing and underdeveloped countries beside Sudan suffer from low levels of income in addition to the low savings that are result from the lack of public savings channels. Hence, investments depend on the individuals' abilities on savings where they are major motivating vehicle for economic activity due to its direct correlation with capital accumulation process that increases the productive capacity for the national economy and help to create job opportunities and achieving economic development. Subsequently, the importance of the investment comes from the effective role that can be practiced on the national product. Currently, Sudan endures severe economic crisis …
Charitable Memberships, Volunteering, And Discounts: Evidence From A Large-Scale Online Field Experiment, Andreas Lange, Andrew J. Stocking
Charitable Memberships, Volunteering, And Discounts: Evidence From A Large-Scale Online Field Experiment, Andreas Lange, Andrew J. Stocking
Andrew J Stocking
Despite the increasing use by charities, significant uncertainty exists about optimal online fundraising mechanisms, especially when large donor pools show substantial heterogeneities. We use an online natural field experiment with over 700,000 subjects to test theory on price discounts and show large differences in donation behavior between donors who have previously given money and/or volunteered. For example, framing the charity’s membership price as a discount increases response rates and decreases conditional contributions from former volunteers, but not from past money donors. Our study thereby demonstrates the importance of conditioning fundraising strategies on the specifics of past donation dimensions.
Rogue Counrty And Potential Cooperation: The United States And Sudan And Feasible Economic Partnership, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed
Rogue Counrty And Potential Cooperation: The United States And Sudan And Feasible Economic Partnership, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed
Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed
The United States declared Sudan as a rogue country in 1995 due to many political considerations. It has imposed many economic and political sanctions against it since that time which represented hindrance to development and resulted in economic crises. Oil explorations started long time by Total Oil Company and resumed by Chevron that halted her activities in Sudan after the flaring of the civil war between the Northern and Southern parts of the country. That work was resumed in 1996 by Chinese companies and was crowned by success and commercial production in 1999. Although the economic situations of Sudan improved …
Who Cries For Sudan: من الذي يرثي السودان, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed
Who Cries For Sudan: من الذي يرثي السودان, Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed
Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed
The institutional collapse in Sudan started long time ago. However, it has accelerator in the past years since Nivasha Comprehensive Peace Agreement and Darfur war.
A Two-Sided Auction For Legacy Loans, Peter Cramton
A Two-Sided Auction For Legacy Loans, Peter Cramton
Peter Cramton
On Monday, 23 March 2009, Treasury Secretary Geithner presented the Public-Private Investment Program as a key instrument to resolve the financial crisis (www.financialstability.gov). The Treasury’s description still leaves many issues unanswered. We flesh out the auction design for legacy loans. A two-sided auction is required. Both banks and private investors must compete in a transparent and competitive process.
Foreword To Ross Baldick's 'Single Clearing Price In Electricity Markets', Peter Cramton
Foreword To Ross Baldick's 'Single Clearing Price In Electricity Markets', Peter Cramton
Peter Cramton
Argues that consumers and suppliers are better off with the clearing-price auction in electricity markets.
Podcast: Economic Expressions: A Conversation With The Economist Julie Nelson, Julie A. Nelson
Podcast: Economic Expressions: A Conversation With The Economist Julie Nelson, Julie A. Nelson
Economics Faculty Publication Series
No abstract provided.
Bringing Growth Theory Down To Earth, Andrew J. Stocking, Ramon Lopez
Bringing Growth Theory Down To Earth, Andrew J. Stocking, Ramon Lopez
Andrew J Stocking
Explicitly accounting for certain basic physical laws governing the “earth” sector dramatically enriches our ability to explain a high degree of diversity in observed patterns of economic growth. We provide a theoretical explanation of why some countries have been able to sustain a more or less constant and positive rate of economic growth for many decades while so many others have failed to do so. The analysis predicts that countries that have an over abundance of physical capital (a concept that is precisely defined in the text) may be unable to sustain a positive rate of economic growth over the …
John Langshaw Austin: Evolution, Communication And Language Daily (John Langshaw Austin: Evolución, Comunicación Y Lenguaje Cotidiano) Spanish, Fernando Estrada
John Langshaw Austin: Evolution, Communication And Language Daily (John Langshaw Austin: Evolución, Comunicación Y Lenguaje Cotidiano) Spanish, Fernando Estrada
Fernando Estrada
In this paper the main purpose is to expose the relevance of focus of John L. Austin and their opposition a conception type on the communication. Austin elaborates - in its own terms - to “linguistic phenomenology,” with which revises some places thrashed critically. Those “you force illocutionary” and those “speech acts,” they will be central concepts in this analytic company. In the perspective of Austin should not make a mistake communication with information. The work that here develop it proposes some usually notices in defense of the normative functions of the language ordinary.
Labyrinth Of Modernity, Interpretation Of The Old Regime And The Revolution Of Alexis De Tocqueville (Laberinto De La Modernidad. Interpretación Del Antiguo Régimen Y La Revolución De Alexis De Tocqueville) Spanish, Fernando Estrada, José Daniel Parra
Labyrinth Of Modernity, Interpretation Of The Old Regime And The Revolution Of Alexis De Tocqueville (Laberinto De La Modernidad. Interpretación Del Antiguo Régimen Y La Revolución De Alexis De Tocqueville) Spanish, Fernando Estrada, José Daniel Parra
Fernando Estrada
CIPE in this book presents an interpretation of the Old Regime and the Revolution of Alexis de Tocqueville.
Meditations On Machiavelli (Meditaciones En Maquiavelo) Spanish, Fernando Estrada, José Daniel Parra
Meditations On Machiavelli (Meditaciones En Maquiavelo) Spanish, Fernando Estrada, José Daniel Parra
Fernando Estrada
The presentation of Machiavelli in the field of studies of Finance, Government and International Relations is twofold. First, show that we can better understand the problems of our time in the footsteps comprehensive than classical authors have left us. A student can recognize progressive power that were taking concepts such as politics, power, status, conflict, political parties, institutions, representation and social movements, from writing original authors as Florentine thinker.
How Best To Auction Natural Resources, Peter Cramton
How Best To Auction Natural Resources, Peter Cramton
Peter Cramton
I study the design of auctions of natural resources, such as oil or mineral rights. A good auction design promotes both an efficient assignment of rights and competitive revenues for the seller. The structure of bidder preferences and the degree of competition are key factors in determining the best design. With weak competition and additive values, a simultaneous first-price sealed-bid auction may suffice. With more complex value structures, a dynamic auction with package bids, such as the clock-proxy auction, likely is needed to promote the efficiency and revenue objectives. Bidding on production shares, rather than bonuses, typically increases government take …
Auctioning The Digital Dividend, Peter Cramton
Auctioning The Digital Dividend, Peter Cramton
Peter Cramton
I begin by describing some of the problems of the simultaneous ascending auction. Then I present the package clock auction, which retains the benefits, while addressing the weaknesses, of the simultaneous ascending auction. I emphasize two essential elements of the package clock auction: the pricing rule and the activity rule. Along the way, I summarize both experimental and field results with the package clock auction.
If The Large Wta-Wtp Gap For Public Goods Is Real (And There Are Good Reasons To Think So) Conventional Welfare Measures Are Simply Incorrect, Philip E. Graves
If The Large Wta-Wtp Gap For Public Goods Is Real (And There Are Good Reasons To Think So) Conventional Welfare Measures Are Simply Incorrect, Philip E. Graves
PHILIP E GRAVES
A robust finding in economics is that decision-makers often exhibit a much smaller dollar willingness to pay (WTP) for an item than the minimum amount that they claim to be willing to accept (WTA) to part with it. The spread between these two numbers is particularly large for public goods, raising serious public policy concerns regarding which number, if either, is appropriate for valuing such goods. A traditional utility maximizing model is presented here that predicts–as both measures are currently calculated–that WTA will exceed WTP, quite plausibly by a substantial amount for public goods. Moreover, it is shown here that …
Podcast: Economic Expressions: A Conversation With The Economist Julie Nelson, Julie A. Nelson
Podcast: Economic Expressions: A Conversation With The Economist Julie Nelson, Julie A. Nelson
Julie A. Nelson
No abstract provided.
Monotone Imitation, Carlos Oyarzun, Johannes Ruf
Monotone Imitation, Carlos Oyarzun, Johannes Ruf
Carlos Oyarzun
We analyze the social learning process of a group of individuals who have limited information about the payoff distributions of each action. We say that a behavioral rule is first-order monotone (FOM) if the number of individuals who play actions with first-order stochastic dominant payoff distributions is expected to increase in any environment. We provide a characterization of FOM rules. Both Imitate if Better and Schlag’s (J Econ Theory 78:130-156, 1998) Proportional Imitation rule are FOM. No FOM rule is dominant in the sense of having the best performance in every environment.