Economics Commons^™

The Effect Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy On Public Debt In Egypt, Malak Mohamed

Theses and Dissertations

The thesis aims to examine the effect of monetary policies and fiscal policies on public debt in Egypt during the period from 2006 until 2021. Egypt is witnessing aggravated levels of debt, with limited fiscal and monetary space. Therefore, the objective of the paper is to analyze the effect of discount rates, inflation rates, subsidies, taxes and economic growth on debt-to-GDP in Egypt using a VAR model with an extended test of Impulse Response Function. The results suggest that a positive shock in government expenditures initially decreases public debt but leads to a fluctuating increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio in …

Profit Shares And Cost-Push Inflation: Examining The Distributional Nature Of U.S. Inflation And The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy, Devin Herbinger

Economics Student Theses and Capstone Projects

The sharp increase in post-pandemic inflation coincided with a profit explosion characterized by a growing share of profit in output. This paper argues that the record profit share in the nonfinancial corporate sector entails a redistribution of income against real wages due to the current institutional and structural conditions of the U.S. economy. Using profit share as a proxy for markups, the results of this paper highlight the macroeconomic implications of excessive profitability in the face of a global exogenous shock. Chiefly, rising profit share correlates with accelerating CPI inflation from 2021-22. Moreover, this surge in profit share occurred when …

Roger Altman’S 2008 Public Policy Analysis: At Fault Without The Blame, Isaac Deak

Helm's School of Government Conference - American Revival: Citizenship & Virtue

Roger Altman published “Globalism in Retreat” in 2009, in which he offers analysis of the 2008 financial crisis, blaming free-markets and globalism as causes of the calamity, only to praise China’s “state-capitalism”, which he believes allowed the Chinese to emerge ahead of the globalists in recovery. This article, despite its age, provides a timeless example of a dangerous tendency in public policy. It demonstrates how policymakers can implement deleterious policies which result in inevitable crisis, and then, they subsequently escape blame by explaining away the crisis with bad analysis and even worse policy suggestions for the future. Policy suggestions, in …

Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Inflation Expectations In India? Evidences From Surveys Of Household And Professional Forecasters, Irfan Ali Kc

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study examines whether inflation targeting (IT) anchors household and professional forecasters expectations in India. It investigates whether food and non-food inflation affect anchoring inflation expectations differently. Primarily, the results indicate significant decreases in the level and variability of expectations. Further, it provides evidence of successful anchoring for professional forecasters' and household expectations. However, it also found food inflation assist anchoring of expectations, while the non-food inflation doesn't. The results suggest the central bank to emphasize more on non-food inflation for better anchoring prospects. Additionally, the study identifies food inflation as the primary contributor to headline inflation variability.

House Bubbles, Global Imbalances And Monetary Policy In The Us, Anastasios Evgenidis, A. (Tassos) G. Malliaris

School of Business: Faculty Publications and Other Works

This paper examines the factors driving housing price exuberance in the United States, specifically the influence of expansionary monetary policies and the global saving glut. We employ medium scale Bayesian VAR and time-varying VAR models to estimate the effects of monetary policy and global saving glut shocks on US housing bubbles. We find that, prior to the Global Financial Crisis, the impact of the saving glut shock is more enduring, powerful, and rapid in generating housing bubbles compared to monetary policy shocks. However, the recent housing boom that commenced in 2019 demonstrates a different pattern. Our results suggest that both …

Monetary Policy And Stagflation: A Trade-Off Between Price Stability And Economic Growth?, Leef H. Dierks

Journal of New Finance

Several euro area economies are likely to experience a stagflation in 2023. This situation is characterized by a combination of economic stagnation, i.e., GDP growth falling below its potential growth rate, and a pronounced increase in inflation as was last observed during the 1970s’ oil crisis. A stagflation presents the European Central Bank with a dilemma. Should it further tighten its monetary policy in an attempt to align euro area inflation (expectations) with its target of two per cent p.a. in the medium term? Or should the ECB re-adopt a more accommodative stance so as to stimulate economic growth in …

Essays On Macroeconomics, Mauricio Torres Ferro

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

My dissertation consists of three essays on Macroeconomics. In the first two chapters, I study the implications of uncertain expenses for households' savings and for their consumption adjustment in response to monetary policy. In the third chapter, I study how asset liquidity affects households’ ability to smooth idiosyncratic income shocks.

In the first chapter, I characterize uncertain expenses using U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey data. Here, my goals are twofold. First, I classify households’ spending that captures uncertainties in expenses (for example, car and home repairs or out-of-pocket medical expenses) and measure their overall importance. Second, I aim to understand how …

Cbdc: Context, Challenges, And Conditions For A Successful Adoption, Charlie Nhuc Hiang Lay

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Central bank digital currencies (CBDC) are the digital version of physical notes and coins. They are the latest milestone in the evolution of money over the centuries due to technological advancements. This digitalisation of physical money primarily serves as a medium of exchange that has a central bank anchor. There are two versions of CBDC, wholesale and retail. This thesis focuses on retail CBDC, which targets the general public and small daily transactions. It discusses the issues and the plausible implementation of a retail CBDC. A CBDC will preserve monetary sovereignty, foster financial stability, and counter private network effects, i.e., …

Sellers’ Inflation, Profits And Conflict: Why Can Large Firms Hike Prices In An Emergency?, Isabella M. Weber, Evan Wasner

Economics Department Working Paper Series

The dominant view of inflation holds that it is macroeconomic in origin and must always be tackled with macroeconomic tightening. In contrast, we argue that the US COVID-19 inflation is predominantly a sellers’ inflation that derives from microeconomic origins, namely the ability of firms with market power to hike prices. Such firms are price makers, but they only engage in price hikes if they expect their competitors to do the same. This requires an implicit agreement which can be coordinated by sector-wide cost shocks and supply bottlenecks. We review the long-standing literature on price-setting in concentrated markets and survey earnings …

Three Essays On Macroeconomic Shocks, Chase Coleman

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

This dissertation looks at the role that various macroeconomic shocks have on the economy through the lens of both macro- and micro-economic perspectives. In the macro realm, I examine the importance of how researchers measure shocks; functional shocks reveal information latent in scalar shocks. From the micro point of view, I examine the impact of a change in national tax policy.

In Chapter 2, I analyze the effect of monetary policy shocks on household consumption. Measuring shocks as shifts in the entire term structure of interest rates reveals a heterogeneous response of households to conventional and unconventional policies. I find …

Special Remarks, Kingsley Obiora

Economic and Financial Review

This is the special remark delivered by the Deputy Governor, Economic Policy at the 28th edition of the CBN Executive Seminar, jointly organised by the Research and Capacity Development Departments for Executive staff of the Bank. The theme of the Seminar is, “Digitalisation of Money and Monetary Policy in Nigeria”

Welcome Address, Michael A. Adebiyi

Economic and Financial Review

This is the Welcome Address presented by the Director of Research, Central Bank of Nigeria during the 28th Edition of the CBN Executive Seminar held at Transcorp Hilton, Abuja. The year’s theme: ‘Digitalisation of Money and Monetary Policy in Nigeria’ was motivated by the need to keep pace with monetary policy design and implementation in the digital age.

Goodwill Message, Muhammad M. Bello

Economic and Financial Review

This is the keynote address delivered by the Honourable Minister of Federal Capital Territory during the Central Bank of Nigeria Executive Seminar, taking place in the city of Abuja. The theme of the seminar was “The Digitisation of Money and Monetary Policy in Nigeria."

Three Essays On Financial Economics, Megersa Daksa

Dissertations

This study presents three essays on financial economics. In the first essay, we examine how monetary policy shocks affect risk aversion and uncertainty, as well as how risk aversion and uncertainty spread across financial markets. Although a recent study shows that monetary policy influences risk aversion and uncertainty in global stock markets, there are no studies on risk aversion and uncertainty spillover across stock, currency, and commodity markets. Following the method of Bekaert et al. (2013), we decompose the implied volatility indexes (VIX's) for the SP500, U.S. exchange rate, gold and crude oil into risk aversion and uncertainty. The decomposition …

Development Of The Payment Systems: An Economic Need Or A Technological Deed, Heba Mekawy

Future Journal of Social Science

This paper is mainly concerned with showing most of the economic aspects related to both banking transactions, payments, and eventually the payment systems and their development. The economic aspects are discussed on both the macroeconomic and the microeconomic one as well. The discussion in the paper also covers the economic implications of the payment systems and the economic rationale behind their development. The paper has concluded that the economic need of the financial market is the main driver behind the development of payment systems. They also serve as outcomes concerning the well-functioning of the financial market. Thus, the technological development …

Three Essays On The Political Economy Of The Cfa Franc, Francis Perez

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation is organized into three essays. The second essay provides a historical overview of the CFA franc and explores why the CFA franc has survived for so long. It argues that a historical and dialectical materialist analysis of the CFA’s history can best explain both its extraordinary longevity and the periodic major reforms to its functioning. The third essay assesses whether the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) has an independent monetary policy by examining the relationships between BCEAO’s foreign reserves and base money, and between BCEAO and the European Central Banks’s policy rates. The fourth essay evaluates …

Managing External Volatility: Policy Frameworks In Non-Reserve-Issuing Economies, Hélène Poirson, Nathan Porter, Ghada Fayad, Itai Agur, Ran Bi, Jiaqian Chen, Johannes Eugster, Stefan Laseen, Jeta Menkulasi, Kenji Moriyama, Céline Rochon, Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, Camilo Tovar, Zhongxia Zhang, Aleksandra Zdzienicka

Journal of Financial Crises

Since the Global Financial Crisis, non-reserve-issuing economies (NREs) have been highly sensitive to episodes of external pressures. With monetary policy independence constrained by this sensitivity, many NREs have utilized other policy instruments. This paper confirms the vulnerability of NREs to external shocks and finds that, in some circumstances, managing such shocks with multiple instruments can both lessen the policy response required from any one policy tool to financial and external shocks and increase the effectiveness of policies in stabilizing macrofinancial conditions. Effectiveness, however, does not always imply appropriateness, which rests on an evaluation of potential trade-offs and unintended consequences.

Essays On Spillover Effects Across U.S And China, Zhuo Xi

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter1: With the rapid development and continuous advancement of economic globalization, the links between countries around the world have become increasingly tight. Among them, the United States, as the world's largest economy, its monetary policy is bound to cause significant spillover effects on other economies around the world. By constructing a Threshold SVAR model with monthly data from 1996 to 2019, this paper empirically investigates the spillover effects of US monetary policy on China's economy during different U.S policy regimes. The transmission mechanism of such effects has been tested through different channels including policy channel, trade channel, asset value channel …

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 August, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The latest survey results on the largest five economies (Big5) were revised markedly relative to the prior release (pre-Russia-Ukraine conflict), generally indicating weaker growth and higher inflation coupled with incremental ambiguity on the policy front.

Essays On The Economic Effects Of Income Inequality, Adir Dos Santos Mancebo Junior

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Income inequality has been rising throughout the world. In the United States, for example, the income share of the population at the top 10% of the income distribution rose 34% from 1980 to 2019 according to data from the World Inequality Database. This dissertation studies how increasing levels of income inequality might affect the economy.

In the first chapter, I show that changes in the level of income inequality may affect consumption volatility through changes in household aggregate marginal propensity to consume (MPC). I propose a simple theoretical framework to explain this dynamic and evaluate it empirically, combining data from …

Prudential Policy With Distorted Beliefs, Eduardo Dávila, Ansgar Walther

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies leverage regulation when equity investors and/or creditors have distorted beliefs relative to a planner. We characterize how the optimal regulation responds to arbitrary changes in investors’/creditors’ beliefs, relating our results to practical scenarios. We show that the optimal regulation depends on the type and magnitude of such changes. Optimism by investors calls for looser leverage regulation, while optimism by creditors, or jointly by both investors/creditors, calls for tighter leverage regulation. Our results apply to environments with i) planners with imperfect knowledge of investors’/creditors’ beliefs, ii) monetary policy, iii) bailouts and pecuniary externalities, and iv) endogenous beliefs.

Modern Monetary Theory: Merits, Critiques, And Contemporary Implications, Rebecca Singleton, Thomas Herndon

Honors Thesis

The study of macroeconomics is a diverse field, with conflicting opinions and numerous camps of thought. The election of 2016 brought this to the public attention, as the appointment of Stephanie Kelton as Senator Bernie Sanders’s campaign economic advisor brought Dr. Kelton’s heterodox school of macroeconomic policy to the attention of mass media. In particular, Modern Monetary Theory became a public discussion, particularly in the wake of stimulus spending during the COVID-19 pandemic. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), a heterodox macroeconomic theory most discussed in far-left and post-Keynesian academic circles, has faced backlash from a centrist mass media. I investigate the …

Three Essays On Monetary Policy And Exchange Rates, Liang Fu

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Chapter 1 is the product of joint work with Chun-Yu Ho. China’s monetary policy framework has evolved considerably in the past two decades, increasingly moving from using quantity-based instruments and targets to using price-based instruments and targets. This paper assesses the effectiveness of monetary policy in China by examining the influence of monetary policy on market interest rates using an event-study approach. We find that the effectiveness of price-based instruments in impacting market interest rates increases over time, and that price-based instruments are as effective as quantity instruments during the period since the completion of interest rates liberalization. Furthermore, central …

Sandwiched Between A Rock And A Hard Place?, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The policy gap between US and China is likely to be widening further, potentially raising and unevenly distributing the risks of negative spillovers for Asia and the rest of the world.

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 February, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The latest survey results on the largest five economies (Big5), based on submissions prior to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, imply a more intricate growth, inflation and policy dynamic.

Introduction To Macroeconomics, Kenny Christianson

Economics Faculty Scholarship

The textbook begins by looking at basic economic concepts and models, such as scarcity, choice, model-building, opportunity cost, production possibilities curves, comparative advantage, and supply and demand analysis. After a chapter exploring the relationships between markets and government, the text then delves into a rigorous analysis of the theory and practice of macroeconomics. Topics include the measurement of macroeconomic variables, macroeconomic models, and fiscal and monetary policy. The text emphasizes the connections between theory and policy in exploring the field of macroeconomics.

The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School of Economics

The economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Singapore was more severe and protracted than the global financial crisis. Singapore responded with easing of the monetary policy stance, reinforcing financial stability, helping individuals to reduce debt obligations, easing business cashflow constraints, adjusting financial regulatory and supervisory protocols to cope with immediate challenges, and enabling the financial sectors to build long-term capabilities. Fiscal responses were unprecedented with four consecutive budgets and two ministerial statements, initially focusing on immediate assistance in respect of jobs, businesses, households, and later refined to providing more sector-specific assistance as the pandemic evolved with more detailed information …

Empirical Evidences On Pricing Mechanism In Pakistan: A Duration Analysis, Fauzia Sohail, Ambreen Fatima

Business Review

This study evaluates the price setting behavior across main cities of Pakistan by employing the micro data from retail price survey. The most contemporary research technique of Duration Analysis is employed where survivor functions are estimated by most illustrious nonparametric Kaplan-Meier and Nelson-Aalen Estimators. Hazard Functions for various product groups are also estimated by employing parametric Weibull Hazard Model. Results confirm that perishable food items have shortest duration of one week for most of the spells, where government regulation caused prices to change more frequently. It is found that on average small cities faced lower hazard and thus comparably lesser …

The Federal Reserve’S Qe Practices Impact On Inflation: A Comparative Analysis Of The Gfc And Covid-Eras, Robert Driscoll

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates and compares the effects of the Fed’s quantitative easing policies on US inflation during the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-era up to February of 2022. As inflation continues to rise, a quantitative measurement of the Fed’s monetary policy response to recessions and its resulting effect on the price level is becoming increasingly relevant. Supporting the quantity monetary theory, I test the impact of the Fed’s increasing their total assets and securities on their balance sheet on CPI and core CPI. Using multiple time series regressions and a single lag component on the analyzed variables. The model …

Investigating The Impacts Of Monetary Policy On Income Inequality In Developed Nations: Case Study Of The Euro Area, Japan And The United States, Hector Martinez Garcia

Masters Theses

This paper tries to evaluate the effect that unconventional monetary policy has had on income inequality for the set of Eurozone countries, the United States and Japan using an unbalanced panel data model over the period from 1980 to 2021, first jointly and then individually, using different regressions for each case. Based on the regression model analyzed, the study attempts to analyze the relationship between money supply and income inequality as measured by the Gini index using fixed effects and random effects for our panel data model. The study reveals the importance of the money supply variable in reducing inequality …