Economics Commons^™

Navigating The Threat Posed By The Chinese Communist Party, Adam Opp

Helm's School of Government Conference - American Revival: Citizenship & Virtue

For decades, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the economic growth of China has become a threat to the United States. Beginning in 1978, the CCP issued a series of economic, market-oriented reforms which led to a period of economic growth and productivity increase in China. The CCP turned to diplomacy with the United States and other nations to increase foreign investment and implemented the Belt and Road initiative. The impressive scale of Chinese economic growth poses an economic and hegemonic threat to the United States, as China’s economy is projected to outpace the United States and the CCP has …

Is Inflation Caused By Conflict?, Nicolas Cachanosky, Emilio Ocampo

Hunt Institute Working Paper Series

We offer a critique of a paper recently published Lorenzoni and Werning (2023) that seeks to make an original contribution to the hypothesis that inflation is primarily caused by conflict and reconcile the Post-Keynesian and New-Keynesian traditions. L&W’s paper has two sections. In the first they develop a barter model that allows them to prove that inflation can occur with conflict and without money. In the second section they incorporate the conflict hypothesis into a broader framework compatible with New Keynesian models. We question the logical consistency and empirical validity of the barter model and the testability of the model …

Experimental Research On Contests, Subhashish M. Chowdhury, Dan Kovenock, Anwesha Mukherjee

ESI Working Papers

Contests are situations in which agents compete by irreversibly expending costly resources in an attempt to win a prize. Due to their applications in conflict, rent-seeking, organizational incentives, sports, litigation, and political campaigns, contests are widely applied in the social sciences. In this survey we summarize some main results and recent developments of experimental studies in contest theory. We also point out their broader applications in the social sciences.

Religion And Growth, Sascha O. Becker, Jared Rubin, Ludger Woessmann

ESI Working Papers

We use the elements of a macroeconomic production function—physical capital, human capital, labor, and technology—together with standard growth models to frame the role of religion in economic growth. Unifying a growing literature, we argue that religion can enhance or impinge upon economic growth through all four elements because it shapes individual preferences, societal norms, and institutions. Religion affects physical capital accumulation by influencing thrift and financial development. It affects human capital through both religious and secular education. It affects population and labor by influencing work effort, fertility, and the demographic transition. And it affects total factor productivity by constraining or …

Climate & Conflict: View Into A Warming World, Faelynn Carroll

Master's Theses

Unlike weather patterns, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a large-scale, cyclical climate system that is now predictable for up to a year and a half in advance. ENSO cycles occur every two to seven years for approximately two years at a time, affecting large swaths of the globe with plausibly random variation in the exact location and strength of local effects. However, its systemic nature allows for aggregate effects to be accounted for by its outcomes. This research uses novel 0.5 x 0.5 degree ENSO teleconnection analysis for precipitation and temperature to uncover environmental mechanisms that underly the …

Social Capital And Conflict In The Post-Suharto Regime In Indonesia, Andar Ristabet Hesda, Rus'an Nasrudin

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study explores the relationship between social capital and conflict in the post Suharto regime in Indonesia. We employed a combination of cross-section datasets from the Social and Cultural Module of the 2009 National Socio- Economic Survey (SUSENAS) and the media-based conflict data from National Violence Monitoring System (NVMS) of 2010–2014 in Indonesia. Using Binomial Negative Regression, our empirical analysis shows that the past social capital stocks negatively correlate with future conflict intensity. This pattern applies to most conflict types. This result indicates that the social capital stock in 2009 is more likely to be the starting point determining the …

An Economic Analysis Of The United Kingdom Given The Possible Effects Of Overthrowing The Northern Ireland Protocol, Joshua P. Brink

Honors Thesis

This research paper examines the current conflict between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol negotiation. This negotiation was created following the UK’s decision to leave the EU in an event known as Brexit. The conflict has occurred because many Brexiteers in the UK want to override parts of the Protocol since it is a burden for the UK’s economy. The EU, however, has threatened to retaliate since this would be breaking the agreement between these two parties. Furthermore, this paper attempts to evaluate the conflict as a whole, examining all perspectives of …

Blessed Are The Peacemakers: The Future Burden Of Intrastate Conflict On Poverty, Jonathan D. Moyer

Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures: Faculty Scholarship

Intrastate conflict generally undermines human development but its effect on global poverty across different income thresholds remains poorly understood. This paper analyzes how many people will live in poverty due to intrastate civil conflict in 2030, 2050, and 2070 using the International Futures model and shared socioeconomic pathways, forecasting 12 scenarios for 179 countries. A baseline conflict scenario leads to an additional 148.2 million (range: 50.7 to 186.0 million) people living in extreme poverty (Sustainable Development Goal.

Fixing Prior Consultation For Indigenous Empowerment, Marcela Torres-Wong, Elia Méndez-García

The Journal of Social Encounters

Over the last three decades, extractive conflicts in Latin America have become increasingly violent. Hundreds of Indigenous activists have been murdered for defending their land against extractive interests. The international formula for addressing this type of conflict is for governments to conduct prior consultation procedures with Indigenous communities before affecting indigenous territories. However, the misuse of consultations by governments and companies to legitimize ecologically destructive projects has led a sector of Indigenous organizations to reject prior consultation, while others continue advocating for free, prior, and informed consent. We compare two cases of Indigenous communities from Oaxaca and Yucatán in Mexico …

Extractivism And Conflict: Comparative Study Of Serbia And The Drc, Borislava Manojlovic, Espoir Kabanga

The Journal of Social Encounters

This study explores how populations in Serbia and the DRC have been affected by and responded to natural resource extraction. Specifically, protests and other activist engagement were examined by surveying social movements’ participants from civil society and academia. Both qualitative and quantitative methods of inquiry were used. Data was collected from multiple sources, including academic and online sources pertaining to the topic of extractivism, and a survey of 71 participants. The results indicate that both Congolese and Serbian participants have grave concerns about extractivism and its impact on the environment, peace, stability, health, and well-being but differ in their ability …

Economic Interdependence And Conflict: An International Relations Theory Analysis, Sam M. Arkin

Glatfelter Gazette

Theories of International Relations are constructed to help make sense of how power is divided amongst international actors. Three prominent theories: Realism, Liberalism, and Neo-Marxism, interpret international phenomena differently based on their assumptions about structures of global power. Economic interdependence is seen by each theory to impact who has power and how that power is maintained. These theories diverge in interpreting how economic interdependence impacts forms of conflict. These pieces do not interpret which theory is correct but work to emphasize the contextual foundations and analytical framework for how each theory perceives the entanglement of economic interdependence and conflict.

Do Rational Agents Steal, Randy Hill

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Do Rational Agents Steal?

Modern economists from Adam Smith to the present have broadly assumed that rational agents respect property rights. This respect for property rights has been a feature of nearly all economic models from the beginning. This paper examines a simple two person, production and trade model where the agents are allowed to choose to steal. Even within this simple model, there are a broad range of parameters that affect the agents' choices. In most parameter sets, the agents choose to steal as the reward for conflict outweighs the opportunity cost of not engaging in conflict. The parameter …

Essays On The All-Pay Auction, Henk Schouten

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Three all-pay auction models are examined. The first is a symmetric two-player binary-signal all-pay auction with correlated signals and interdependent valuations. The first chapter provides a complete characterization of each form of equilibrium and gives conditions for their existence. The main finding is that there generically exists a unique equilibrium. The unique equilibrium can only be one of four forms of equilibria. I apply my all-pay auction model to elections, where a candidate that receives good news from the polls behaves in a rationally overconfident manner and reduces her equilibrium effort. Consequently, the other candidate can win the election in …

The Effect Of Economic Shocks On Religious Freedom Violations: Evidence From Eritrea, Ethiopia, Nigeria, And Sudan, Rachel Miner

Undergraduate Honors Theses

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, global religious freedom violations are on the rise, especially against religious minorities, as government leaders have used the pandemic as a mechanism to increase oppression (USCIRF 2021). The first week of February 2022, the international community recognized the one-year mark since the Myanmar government launched a coup and genocide campaign against Rohingya Muslims (Paddock 2022). As the Winter Olympics unfolds on the world stage, there is increased attention surrounding the nearly two million Uighur Muslims currently held in concentration camps in China (Abbas 2022). And even with growing headline reports, uncertainty surrounding how …

Conflict In The Pool: A Field Experiment, Loukas Balafoutas, Marco Faravelli, Roman Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

We conduct a field experiment on conflict in swimming pools. When all lanes are occupied, an actor joins the least crowded lane and asks one of the swimmers to move to another lane. The lane represents a contested scarce resource. We vary the actor’s valuation (high and low) for the good through the message they deliver. Also, we take advantage of the natural variation in the number of swimmers to proxy for their valuation. Consistent with theoretical predictions, a swimmer’s propensity to engage in conflict increases in scarcity (incentive effect) and decreases in the actor’s valuation (discouragement effect). We complement …

Disease, Development, And Disorder: Examining The Effect Of Health On Subnational Development And Conflict In Sub-Saharan Africa, Dlorah C. Jenkins

Doctor of International Conflict Management Dissertations

Progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has been uneven across and within countries - particularly in Africa, least developed countries, and low-income countries. The COVID-19 pandemic has threatened to reverse much of the progress made towards achieving the SDGs, especially SDG 3, which aims to “ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages”.

The tendency for disease, underdevelopment, and conflict to occur concomitantly suggests potential causal mechanisms linking them. This study attempts to address two pieces of the puzzle: the causal effect of disease on underdevelopment and the impact of development on conflict risk. Focusing …

Essays On Diversity And Public Policy, Saumya Deojain

Arts & Sciences Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation is divided into three chapters, each of which explores a particular aspect of the effect of socio-political institutions on cooperation and conflict between diverse individuals. The first chapter shows how the relationship between diversity and cooperation changes with social norms. The second chapter investigates the relationship between cultural conflict and government regulation. The third chapter describes conditions on the distribution of preferences of legislators that allow legislative coalitions to induce a legislative gridlock and block reform.

In the first chapter, the notion of a `norm of compromise' is introduced and its importance for cooperation among agents with diverse …

Economic Experiments On Conflict, Information Acquisition, And Public Goods, Jeffrey Braxton Gately

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation contains essays on economic experiments. The first chapter, “Well, at Least I Tried: Partial Willful Ignorance, Information Acquisition, and Social Preferences,” focuses on the effects of information acquisition on social decision-making. The second chapter, “Paved With Good Intentions: Partial Willful Ignorance and Group Identity in Public Goods Games,” focuses on the effect of information acquisition on contributions to public goods. I also explore human conflict in the third chapter, “Risk Preferences and Reform Paths: Experimental Evidence.”

In my first chapter, “Well, at Least I Tried: Partial Willful Ignorance, Information Acquisition, and Social Preferences”, I investigate whether remaining partially …

Shutdown Policies And Worldwide Conflict, Nicolas Berman, Mathieu Couttenier, Nathalie Monnet, Rohit Ticku

ESI Working Papers

We provide real-time evidence on the impact of Covid-19 restrictions policies on conflicts globally. We use daily information on conflict events and government policy responses to limit the spread of coronavirus to study how conflict levels vary following shutdown and lockdown policies. We use the staggered implementation of restriction policies across countries to identify their effect on conflict incidence and intensity. Our results show that imposing a nation-wide shutdown reduces the likelihood of daily conflict by around 9 percentage points. The reduction is driven by a drop in the incidence of battles, protests and violence against civilians. Across actors the …

The Impact Of Armed Conflict On Maternal Health In Colombia, Madeleine Squibb

Honors Projects

This study combines data from the 2010 Demographic and Health Survey and the Conflict Analysis Resource Center (CERAC) to examine the impact of conflict on maternal health service utilization and outcomes in Colombia. The primary results indicate a significant, negative relationship between conflict level and antenatal and postnatal care utilization. Conflict is insignificant in determining the use of professional assistance at delivery. Although rural women are, overall, less likely to access maternal health services, further analysis along rural-urban lines reveals that the negative effect of violence on prenatal and postnatal care is stronger among urban women. Secondary estimation of the …

The Effects Of Conflict On Household Agricultural Investment In Nigeria, Harrison Mitchell

Economics Honors Projects

While the negative effects of conflict on health and education are well established, studies identifying the effects of conflict on household agricultural investment are sparser. I combine a household panel dataset from Nigeria’s Living Standards Measurement Survey - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) with detailed data on conflict events from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED). Using an event studies framework, these data allow me to estimate the effects of conflict on a variety of household agricultural decisions. I find evidence that conflict involving Fulani pastoralists reduces a household’s cattle holdings in the following season. Additionally, I find …

Spreadsheets-In-Space: A Quantitative Exploration Of Movement, Currency Creation, And Conflict Within Eve Online, Christopher Alan Pryor

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

EVE Online is a massively-multiplayer online game with complex interactions between players and their unique, virtual environment. These relationships are the ongoing results of a conflict-driven economy, but they vary both in duration and by location.

This study attempts to quantify the direct effects of movement and indirect effects of conflict upon economic activity in the form of currency creation and delineate how successfully these relationships can be quantified by narrower time-spans and areas. Results of the mediation models used in this exploration indicate the changing relationship between movement (Ship Jumps), conflict (Ship Kills), and currency creation (Faction Kills) is …

The Relationship Between Conflict And Longevity: A Panel Data Analysis, Felicitas Adu-Acheampong

Wayne State University Dissertations

With a series of multivariate regression models this study investigates the association of conflict, health and non-health inputs with different facets of longevity in OECD, emerging and African countries. Using a country-level panel data set covering the period 1990 through 2014, five facets of longevity are examined: infant mortality, life expectancy for males at birth, life expectancy for females at birth, life expectancy for males at age 65, and life expectancy for females at age 65 among OECD and emerging countries. With country-level data spanning 1997 through 2016 from 50 African nations, production functions are also estimated for four distinct …

A Full Characterization Of Best-Response Functions In The Lottery Colonel Blotto Game, Dan Kovenock, David Rojo Arjona

ESI Working Papers

We fully characterize best-response functions in Colonel Blotto games with lottery contest success functions.

The Supply Side Determinants Of Territory And Conflict, Jordan Adamson, Erik O. Kimbrough

ESI Working Papers

What determines the geographic extent of territory? We microfound and extend Boulding’s “Loss of Strength Gradient” to predict the extensive and intensive margins of conflict across space. We show how economies of scale in the production of violence and varying costs of projecting violence at a distance combine to affect the geographic distribution of conflict and territory. We test and probe the boundaries of this model in an experiment varying the fixed costs of conflict entry. As predicted, higher fixed costs increase the probability of exclusive territories; median behavior closely tracks equilibrium predictions in all treatments.

Living A Lie: Theory And Evidence On Public Preference Falsification, John Duffy, Jonathan Lafky

Department of Economics Working Paper Series

We propose a model of how public behavior changes in response to the evolution of privately held preferences. Our aim is to rationalize the tendency for individuals who hold minority viewpoints to falsely report their preferences by taking actions favored by the majority. We do this using a game involving a tension between honest expression of one’s true preferences and a desire to conform to the behavior of others. In an experimental test of our model, we find confirmatory support for the model’s main predictions, that even after a majority of the population shares what was previously an unpopular minority …

8.2 Conflict, Food And Water Security In Ethiopia, Desalegn Dagnew

International Conference on African Development

Ethiopia and its people are kind and hospitable to all humanity irrespective of race, tribe, ethnicity, religion or creed. It has been, and still is, a refuge to hundreds of thousands of people who seek shelter and safety. The world knows Ethiopians as people who love their country and who do not hesitate to defend it by giving their dear lives, as was the case during the fascist Italian invasions of 1895 and 1936 where thousands of Ethiopians died fighting to preserve Ethiopia’s identity as the only country in Africa that has never been ruled by a European colonial power. …

Globalization, Conflict, And The Effects Of The Rate Of Change Of Globalization: An Empirical Analysis, Ashley Stephens

Honors Projects

The world is becoming increasingly more interconnected with technological advances leading to more and more globalization. It is important to see how globalization affects society, especially in the lesser developed post-conflict regions of Africa. The theories of liberalism, Marxism, and realism all offer plausible, yet strikingly different theories on the relationship between globalization and conflict. This paper conceptually examines the dominant theories of globalization and conflict, then uses open-source panel data on globalization and conflict in Africa to empirically test which theory is supported by the data, then tests if there is a correlation between the rate of globalization and …

The Role Of Conflict In Sub-Saharan Africa, Samy Lemos

CMC Senior Theses

Sub-Saharan Africa is the provider of many critical natural resources. With such resources, one would expect these countries to have thriving economies. Why is the opposite case true? To answer such a question, this paper examines a few critical causes that may justify the current economic situation these African countries are experiencing. Specifically, the paper observes the economic impact of civil war and terrorist conflict in sub-Saharan Africa from 1971 to 2016. To explore the changes in GDP per capita for all these years, this thesis sheds light on three independent variables: year of conflict, education level, and foreign direct …

The Opportunity Cost Of Violence: An Analysis Of The Relationship Between Foreign Aid And Terrorism In Sub-Saharan Africa, Brendan T. Byrne

Senior Projects Spring 2018

Senior Project submitted to The Division of Social Studies of Bard College.