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Full-Text Articles in Economics

Vocational Rehabilitation And Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence From World War I Veterans, Ethan Schmick Apr 2022

Vocational Rehabilitation And Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence From World War I Veterans, Ethan Schmick

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This article uses a linked sample of World War I Army veterans from the state of Missouri to study the impact of vocational rehabilitation on labor market outcomes for men wounded and disabled during the war. Veterans’ military service abstracts are linked to the 1940 US Census and a subset are linked to rehabilitation records. This creates a new dataset that contains information on military service, rehabilitation, and labor market outcomes. I find that 70 percent of veterans that were both wounded in action and disabled when discharged from the army participated in the rehabilitation program. These same veterans had …


Cafos And Surface Water Quality: Evidence From Wisconsin, Zach Raff, Andrew G. Meyer Jan 2022

Cafos And Surface Water Quality: Evidence From Wisconsin, Zach Raff, Andrew G. Meyer

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) – animal feeding operations with over 1,000 animal units in confined spaces – have proliferated over the past 30 years in the United States. CAFOs provide operational cost savings, but higher animal concentrations in confined spaces can generate external costs, e.g., non-point source water pollution. In this study, we improve on previous research designs to estimate the relationship between the growth in CAFOs and surface water quality using longitudinal data on a large spatial scale. We use a panel dataset from 1995-2017 that links CAFO intensity with nearby surface water quality readings in Wisconsin to …


Do Economic Conditions Affect Climate Change Beliefs And Support For Climate Action? Evidence From The Us In The Wake Of The Great Recession, Andrew G. Meyer Jan 2022

Do Economic Conditions Affect Climate Change Beliefs And Support For Climate Action? Evidence From The Us In The Wake Of The Great Recession, Andrew G. Meyer

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

I show that climate skepticism increases with negative economic shocks and that the effects are concentrated among individuals in the labor force. I primarily employ a panel of US individuals in the period following the Great Recession, but also find consistent results with an alternative instrumental variables strategy. Among labor force participants, a one‐percentage point increase in the local unemployment rate leads to a three to five percentage point decrease in the probability of believing climate change is real and requires action. I conclude that support for climate change policies could depend on labor market conditions.


Gender Differences In The Returns To Education Over Time For Married Couples, Nikki Brendemuehl, Nicholas A. Jolly Aug 2021

Gender Differences In The Returns To Education Over Time For Married Couples, Nikki Brendemuehl, Nicholas A. Jolly

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

Using US Census data from 1960 to 2000 and American Community Survey data from 2010, this paper analyzes gender differences in the return to education for married couples. Results from this analysis show that the return to schooling has increased over time for both genders; however, the relative return to schooling for females has fallen since the 1990s. In 2010, married women who are under age 35 and are in the top 20 percent of the income distribution had lower returns to schooling compared to men. These results are consistent with several demographic shifts that occurred during the last half …


Incorporating Beliefs And Experiences Into Choice Experiment Analysis: Implications For The National Park Service, Sahan T. Dissanayake, Andrew G. Meyer Jun 2021

Incorporating Beliefs And Experiences Into Choice Experiment Analysis: Implications For The National Park Service, Sahan T. Dissanayake, Andrew G. Meyer

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

We show that respondents' beliefs about future outcomes and prior recreational experiences affect policy recommendations from choice experiments. For New England residents, we find that willingness to pay for a new national park in Maine differs based on respondents' stated beliefs about the status quo long-term land use. We also find that respondents who do (do not) hunt or snowmobile would pay significantly more (less) for a park allowing these activities. Land managers may find a two-park solution (one allowing the activities and one prohibiting them) would be best; this insight would be missed when neglecting to model conflicting recreational …


Shifts In Precipitation And Agricultural Intensity Increase Phosphorus Concentrations And Loads In An Agricultural Watershed, Donald M. Waller, Andrew G. Meyer, Zach Raff, Steven I. Apfelbaum Apr 2021

Shifts In Precipitation And Agricultural Intensity Increase Phosphorus Concentrations And Loads In An Agricultural Watershed, Donald M. Waller, Andrew G. Meyer, Zach Raff, Steven I. Apfelbaum

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

Fertilizers and manure applied to cropland to increase yields are often lost via surface erosion, soil leaching, and runoff, increasing nutrient loads in surface and sub-surface waters, degrading water quality, and worsening the ‘dead zone’ in the Gulf of Mexico. We leverage spatial and temporal variation in agricultural practices and precipitation events to examine how these factors affect stream total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and loads in the Sugar River (Wisconsin), recently listed as impaired. To perform our analysis, we first collected water quality data from 1995 to 2017 from 40 sites along the Sugar River and its tributaries. Starting in …


Learning And The Effectiveness Of Central Bank Forward Guidance, Stephen J. Cole Feb 2021

Learning And The Effectiveness Of Central Bank Forward Guidance, Stephen J. Cole

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This paper examines the link between expectations formation and the effectiveness of central bank forward guidance. A standard New Keynesian model is extended to include forward guidance shocks in the monetary policy rule. Agents form expectations about future macro-economic variables via either the standard rational expectations hypothesis or an adaptive learning model. The results show that the assumption of rational expectations overstates the effects of forward guidance relative to adaptive learning during an economic crisis. Thus, if monetary policy is based on a model with rational expectations, the results of forward guidance could be potentially misleading.


The Housing Risk Premium In A Production Economy, Sungjun Huh, Insu Kim Jan 2021

The Housing Risk Premium In A Production Economy, Sungjun Huh, Insu Kim

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This article studies how the housing risk premium is determined in a simple real business cycle model. We present a consumption-based asset pricing model for the housing risk premium and evaluate whether the model is able to explain the observed housing risk premium. Our findings show that a real business cycle model with generalized recursive preferences is able to match the observed housing risk premium. We also find that the volatility of the housing demand shock plays a crucial role in determining the risk–return relationship for housing.


Growth Forecast Revisions Over Business Cycles: Evidence From The Survey Of Professional Forecasters, Sungjun Huh, Insu Kim Nov 2020

Growth Forecast Revisions Over Business Cycles: Evidence From The Survey Of Professional Forecasters, Sungjun Huh, Insu Kim

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This paper studies how expectations regarding current and future output growth are revised as the state of the economy evolves. We study this issue using GDP growth forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find an asymmetric relationship between forecast revisions and GDP growth. Forecasters make larger forecast revisions during contractions than during expansions when the deviation of the economy from its normal state is controlled for.


Experiential Learning In The Jesuit Business School Context: The Agbl Program, Nicholas J C Santos, Heather Kohls, Jennifer S. Maney Sep 2020

Experiential Learning In The Jesuit Business School Context: The Agbl Program, Nicholas J C Santos, Heather Kohls, Jennifer S. Maney

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

In an attempt to engage Jesuit business school students in transformational learning, Marquette University offers the Applied Global Business Learning (AGBL) Program. This program embodies the Ignatian pedagogy paradigm of helping students gain an understanding of a business need in a different part of the world, engages them in action, and has them reflect on and evaluate the experience as it relates to how they take the experience to change the world. This paper discusses the program’s relation to the Jesuit tradition, the history of the program including where students go and what they do, the impact on student learning, …


The Influence Of Learning And Price-Level Targeting On Central Bank Forward Guidance, Stephen J. Cole Sep 2020

The Influence Of Learning And Price-Level Targeting On Central Bank Forward Guidance, Stephen J. Cole

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This paper examines how the effectiveness of central bank forward guidance depends on two key channels: the expectations formation process and the monetary policy regime. The results show that rational expectations relative to an adaptive learning rule amplifies the positive benefits a price-level targeting central bank creates for forward guidance. Specifically, forward guidance generates greater amounts of output and inflation under a price-level than inflation targeting monetary policy regime, but rational expectations overstates these positive benefits compared to adaptive learning. The different responses of expectations between rational expectations and adaptive learning to forward guidance are driving this performance gap. Thus, …


The Limits Of Central Bank Forward Guidance Under Learning, Stephen J. Cole Sep 2020

The Limits Of Central Bank Forward Guidance Under Learning, Stephen J. Cole

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This paper investigates the effectiveness of central bank forward guidance while relaxing two standard macroeconomic assumptions: rational expectations and frictionless financial markets. The results show that the addition of financial frictions amplifies the differences between rational expectations and adaptive learning to forward guidance. During a period of economic crisis, output under rational expectations displays more favorable responses to forward guidance than under adaptive learning. These differences are exacerbated when compared with a similar analysis without financial frictions. Thus, monetary policymakers should consider the way in which expectations and credit frictions are modeled when examining the effects of forward guidance.


Competitive Blind Spots And The Cyclicality Of Investment: Experimental Evidence, Cortney S. Rodent, Andrew Smyth Jul 2020

Competitive Blind Spots And The Cyclicality Of Investment: Experimental Evidence, Cortney S. Rodent, Andrew Smyth

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

We report laboratory experiments investigating the cyclicality of profit‐enhancing investment in a competitive environment. In our setting, optimal investment is counter‐cyclical when investment costs fall following market downturns. However, we do not observe counter‐cyclical investment. Instead, we see much less strategic behavior than our rational investment model anticipates. Our participants exhibit what Porter (1980) terms a competitive blind spot, and heuristic investment models where individuals invest a fixed percentage of their liquidity, or a fixed percentage of anticipated market demand, better fit our data than does optimal investment. We also report a control treatment without cost changes and a treatment …


International Trade Policy Preferences: Evidence Of The Interaction Of Socio-Tropic Influences And Uncertainty Shocks, Joseph Daniels, Emily Kapszukiewicz, Marc Von Der Ruhr Mar 2020

International Trade Policy Preferences: Evidence Of The Interaction Of Socio-Tropic Influences And Uncertainty Shocks, Joseph Daniels, Emily Kapszukiewicz, Marc Von Der Ruhr

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This paper provides new evidence supporting the hypothesis that patriotism and nationalism influence personal trade policy preferences in addition to the typical economic determinants. It also examines the interaction of the 9/11 terrorist attacks along with patriotism and nationalism on policy preferences. Using the Heckscher-Ohlin model as a theoretical framework, ordered probit estimations were applied to survey responses from an International Social Survey Program survey question about preferences towards limiting imports. Extensions of the model were sequentially estimated to investigate the impact of national identity on policy preferences. The model was augmented to test how feelings of nationalism and patriotism …


An Experiment On Innovation And Collusion, Andrew Smyth Jul 2019

An Experiment On Innovation And Collusion, Andrew Smyth

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This paper examines the relationship between product innovation and the success of price collusion using novel laboratory experiments. Average market prices in low innovation (LO) experiments are significantly higher than those in high innovation, but otherwise identical experiments. This price difference is attributed to LO experimental subjects' greater common market experience. The data illustrate how collusion can be perceived as the "only way to make it" in LO markets where product innovation is not a viable strategy for increasing profits. They suggest that product homogeneity can be a proximate cause, and product innovation an ultimate cause, of collusion.


Elite Influence On Climate Change Skepticism: Evidence From Close Gubernatorial Elections, Andrew G. Meyer Jul 2019

Elite Influence On Climate Change Skepticism: Evidence From Close Gubernatorial Elections, Andrew G. Meyer

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

Many theorize that public opinion follows political elite on climate change skepticism, yet evidence of a causal link is lacking. I use a regression discontinuity design to establish the impact of the political party of a governor on constituents’ global warming beliefs. I find that, relative to the election of a Democratic governor, the election of a Republican governor significantly decreases the probability of a Republican constituent believing in global warming by approximately 11–15 percentage points; there is no significant impact on Democratic constituents. I also find a negative effect of a Republican governor on belief in human-caused global warming …


The Great Recession And Public Education, William N. Evans, Robert M. Schwab, Kathryn L. Wagner Apr 2019

The Great Recession And Public Education, William N. Evans, Robert M. Schwab, Kathryn L. Wagner

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

We examine the impact of the Great Recession on public education finance and employment. Five major themes emerge from our work. First, nearly 300,000 school employees lost their jobs. Second, schools that were heavily dependent financially on state governments were particularly vulnerable to the recession. Third, local revenues from the property tax actually increased during the recession, primarily because millage rates rose in response to declining property values. Fourth, inequality in school spending rose sharply during the Great Recession. We argue, however, that we need to be very cautious about this result. School spending inequality has risen steadily since 2000; …


State-Level Fdi And Within-Occupation Wage Inequality In The United States, Miao Wang, M. C. Sunny Wong, Hong Zhuang Jan 2019

State-Level Fdi And Within-Occupation Wage Inequality In The United States, Miao Wang, M. C. Sunny Wong, Hong Zhuang

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

Our paper explores the relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and within-occupation wage inequality at the state level in the U.S. We argue that sectoral FDI may affect different occupations differently, and our study looks at possible heterogeneous effects of sectoral FDI on wage inequality for 22 occupations. Using data over 1999–2007, our results show that state-level manufacturing FDI tends to reduce wage inequality, measured by the ratio of the 90th percentile wage and the 10th percentile wage in an occupation. Manufacturing FDI is significantly associated with less wage inequality in the production occupations and the construction and extraction …


Expected Inflation And The Sacrifice Ratio, Joseph Daniels, Sandeep Mazumder, David D. Vanhoose Jan 2019

Expected Inflation And The Sacrifice Ratio, Joseph Daniels, Sandeep Mazumder, David D. Vanhoose

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

Using inflation forecasts from the OECD Economic Outlook as proxy measures of inflation expectations, we examine the impact of inflation expectations on the sacrifice ratio for 20 OECD countries. The regression analysis considers four different empirical models of the determinants of the sacrifice ratio typically found in the existing literature. The impact of the level of inflation expectations is negative and significant, implying that a higher level of expected inflation is associated with lower sacrifice ratios. This result is consistent with the theoretical role of nominal wage and price rigidities in that reductions in wage and price stickiness diminish the …


Bank Efficiency And Regional Economic Growth: Evidence From China, Hong Zhuang, Haiyan Yin, Miao Grace Wang, Jiawen Yang Jan 2019

Bank Efficiency And Regional Economic Growth: Evidence From China, Hong Zhuang, Haiyan Yin, Miao Grace Wang, Jiawen Yang

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This paper examines for the first time the relationship between bank efficiency and regional economic growth in China with provincial data over 1995 - 2014. We find consistent and strong evidence that bank efficiency positively affects regional economic growth. Further, bank efficiency exerts a more pronounced impact on economic growth in inland provinces than coastal regions. The insignificant effect of the quantity of credit in our regressions suggests that a mere expansion of financial volume is not effective in promoting regional economic growth, whereas the improvement in the quality of financial intermediation plays an important role fostering provincial economic growth.


Team Payroll, Pitcher And Hitter Payrolls And Team Performance: Evidence From The U.S. Major League Baseball, Xing Lu, Jason Matthews, Miao Wang, Hong Zhuang Jun 2018

Team Payroll, Pitcher And Hitter Payrolls And Team Performance: Evidence From The U.S. Major League Baseball, Xing Lu, Jason Matthews, Miao Wang, Hong Zhuang

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

We use the U.S. Major League Baseball team level data in 1985-2015 and find an inverse U-shaped relationship between team payrolls and winning percentages. Furthermore, when investigating the winning effects of pitcher and hitter payrolls, we find the similar curvilinear relationship between pitcher/hitter salaries and team performance.


Testing The Boundaries Of The Double Auction: The Effects Of Complete Information And Market Power, Erik O. Kimbrough, Andrew Smyth Jun 2018

Testing The Boundaries Of The Double Auction: The Effects Of Complete Information And Market Power, Erik O. Kimbrough, Andrew Smyth

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

We report boundary experiments testing the robustness of price convergence in double auction markets for non-durable goods in which there is extreme earnings inequality at the competitive equilibrium (CE). Following up on a conjecture by Smith (1976a), we test whether the well-known equilibrating power of the double auction institution is robust to the presence of complete information about traders’ values and costs and the presence of symmetric market power. We find that complete information is insufficient to impede convergence to CE prices; however, introducing market power consistently causes prices to deviate from the CE, whether or not subjects possess complete …


Shakeout In The Early Commercial Airframe Industry, Taylor Jaworski, Andrew Smyth May 2018

Shakeout In The Early Commercial Airframe Industry, Taylor Jaworski, Andrew Smyth

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

The commercial airframe industry in the US experienced a shakeout from the early 1930s into the post‐Second World War period. Unlike shakeouts in automobiles, tyres, or televisions, the commercial airframe industry's early life cycle was affected by external factors, particularly government demand. Using newly digitized data on all planes introduced in the commercial market between 1926 and 1965, we find that commercial airframe manufacturers with bomber contracts during the Second World War were more likely to have postwar market share than firms without such contracts, controlling for plane characteristics and other forms of government contracting. We attribute the effect of …


The Effectiveness Of Central Bank Forward Guidance Under Inflation And Price-Level Targeting, Stephen J. Cole Mar 2018

The Effectiveness Of Central Bank Forward Guidance Under Inflation And Price-Level Targeting, Stephen J. Cole

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This paper examines the effectiveness of central bank forward guidance under inflation and price-level targeting monetary policies. The results show that the beneficial effects of forward guidance increase if a central bank pursues price-level targeting instead of inflation targeting. Output and inflation respond more favorably to forward guidance with price-level targeting than inflation targeting. A monetary policy rule that aggressively reacts to inflation and includes interest rate inertia narrows the performance gap between the two policy regimes. However, forward guidance with price-level targeting is still preferred to forward guidance with inflation targeting after performing multiple robustness checks.


Free Trade Agreements And Volatility Of Stock Returns And Exchange Rates: Evidence From Nafta, Bram Daelemans, Joseph P. Daniels, Farrokh Nourzad Feb 2018

Free Trade Agreements And Volatility Of Stock Returns And Exchange Rates: Evidence From Nafta, Bram Daelemans, Joseph P. Daniels, Farrokh Nourzad

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This paper uses GARCH models and daily data to investigate the effect of the Canada – U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) and NAFTA on the volatility of, and the relationship between stock market returns and changes in bilateral exchange rates of the member countries. Empirical results indicate that the CUSFTA had a stabilizing effect on the Canadian and U.S. equity markets while increasing the volatility of the CAD/USD exchange rate. NAFTA further reduced the two stock markets’ volatility, however unlike CUSFTA, NAFTA also reduced the volatility of the CAD/USD exchange rate. Additional results indicate that during NAFTA, the Mexican stock …


Religious Identity Formation: Constraints Imposed On Religious Institutions And Implications For The Meaning Of Religious Affiliation, Marc Von Der Ruhr, Paul Ngo, Joseph Daniels Jan 2018

Religious Identity Formation: Constraints Imposed On Religious Institutions And Implications For The Meaning Of Religious Affiliation, Marc Von Der Ruhr, Paul Ngo, Joseph Daniels

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

Religiosity in the United States remains a strong social force. The United States persistently demonstrates higher religious participation than Europe. Some recent trends documented by the Pew Research Center in its 2008 and 2015 publications on the U.S. religious landscape, however, cite evidence that different religious groups are experiencing very different trends in participation. These trends show a recent and significant decline among many moderate Protestant denominations but a modest increase in participation at fundamentalist churches. The Pew Research Center similarly documents significant inconsistencies between what a religious hierarchy teaches versus what individuals personally choose to believe. For example, and …


Revenue Sharing And Player Salaries In Major League Baseball, James Richard Hill, Nicholas A. Jolly Dec 2017

Revenue Sharing And Player Salaries In Major League Baseball, James Richard Hill, Nicholas A. Jolly

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This article analyzes how changes made to the revenue sharing agreement in the 2007 Major League Baseball collective bargaining agreement influenced the salaries of position players and pitchers. The tax rates associated with revenue sharing decreased following ratification of the 2007 agreement. Theoretically, these changes should increase players’ marginal revenue product and, therefore, salaries. Results indicate that position players experienced an increase in salary following the 2007 agreement. Pitchers’ salaries also increased, but by a smaller amount. The effect of the 2007 agreement was different throughout the salary distribution for position players, but uniform throughout the distribution for pitchers.


Does Athletic Success Influence Persistence At Higher Education Institutions? New Evidence Using Panel Data, Daniel C. Hickman, Andrew G. Meyer Oct 2017

Does Athletic Success Influence Persistence At Higher Education Institutions? New Evidence Using Panel Data, Daniel C. Hickman, Andrew G. Meyer

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This study examines the relationship between athletic success and student persistence toward a degree. We build an updated panel of National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division I institutions and utilize within-institution variation to identify the effects of athletic success. Using a ranking of all institutions, we find that having more successful men's basketball and football teams has a significant positive effect on first-year retention rates. We also find some evidence that improved basketball rankings increase graduation rates, and that success in the NCAA tournament may have a sizable impact on retention. Although the estimated effects are generally modest in scale, …


Perceptions Of Institutional Quality: Evidence Of Limited Attention To Higher Education Rankings, Andrew G. Meyer, Andrew R. Hanson, Daniel C. Hickman Oct 2017

Perceptions Of Institutional Quality: Evidence Of Limited Attention To Higher Education Rankings, Andrew G. Meyer, Andrew R. Hanson, Daniel C. Hickman

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

Rankings of colleges and universities provide information about quality and potentially affect where prospective students send applications for admission. We find evidence of limited attention to the popular U.S. News and World Report rankings of America’s Best Colleges. We estimate that applications discontinuously drop by 2%–6% when the rank moves from inside the top 50 to outside the top 50 whereas there is no evidence of a corresponding discontinuous drop in institutional quality. Notably, the ranking of 50 corresponds to the first page cutoff of the printed U.S. News guides. The choice of college is typically a one-time decision with …


Do College Admissions Counselors Discriminate? Evidence From A Correspondence-Based Field Experiment, Andrew Hanson Oct 2017

Do College Admissions Counselors Discriminate? Evidence From A Correspondence-Based Field Experiment, Andrew Hanson

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

I design and implement a correspondence based field experiment to test for race and gender discrimination among college admissions counselors in the student information gathering stage. The experiment uses names to identify student race and gender, and student grade, SAT score, and writing differences to reflect varying levels of applicant quality. I find that counselors do not respond differently by race in most cases, but there are measurable differences in response/non-response and in the type of correspondence sent that favor female students. I also find that the quality of the student induces large differences in the type of response.