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Articles 1 - 30 of 101
Full-Text Articles in Economics
Testing Homogeneity In Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Qihui Chen
Testing Homogeneity In Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Qihui Chen
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper proposes a residual-based LM test for slope homogeneity in large dimensional panel data models with interactive fixed effects. We first run the panel regression under the null to obtain the restricted residuals, and then use them to construct our LM test statistic. We show that after being appropriately centered and scaled, our test statistic is asymptotically normally distributed under the null and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives. The asymptotic distributional theories are established under fairly general conditions which allow for both lagged dependent variables and conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form by relying on the concept of conditional …
Predictive Regression Under Various Degrees Of Persistence And Robust Long-Horizon Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ji Hyung Lee
Predictive Regression Under Various Degrees Of Persistence And Robust Long-Horizon Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ji Hyung Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
The paper proposes a novel inference procedure for long-horizon predictive regression with persistent regressors, allowing the autoregressive roots to lie in a wide vicinity of unity. The invalidity of conventional tests when regressors are persistent has led to a large literature dealing with inference in predictive regressions with local to unity regressors. Magdalinos and Phillips (2009b) recently developed a new framework of extended IV procedures (IVX) that enables robtist chi-square testing for a wider class of persistent regressors. We extend this robust procedure to an even wider parameter space in the vicinity of unity and apply the methods to long-horizon …
Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation For Spatial Panel Data Regressions, Zhenlin Yang
Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation For Spatial Panel Data Regressions, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This article considers quasi-maximum likelihood estimations (QMLE) for two spatial panel data regression models: mixed effects model with spatial errors and transformed mixed effects model (where response and covariates are transformed) with spatial errors. One aim of transformation is to normalize the data, thus the transformed models are more robust with respect to the normality assumption compared with the standard ones. QMLE method provides additional protection against violation of normality assumption. Asymptotic properties of the QMLEs are investigated. Numerical illustrations are provided.
Minimum Investment Requirement, Financial Integration And Economic (In)Stability: A Refinement To Matsuyama (2004), Haiping Zhang
Minimum Investment Requirement, Financial Integration And Economic (In)Stability: A Refinement To Matsuyama (2004), Haiping Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This note proposes a simple, more precise, necessary condition for symmetry breaking in Matsuyama (Financial Market Globalization, Symmetry-Breaking, and Endogenous Inequality of Nations, Econometrica, 2004 ), i.e., the positive interest rate response to income changes, which essentially arises from the assumptions of financial frictions and minimum investment size requirement of individual projects. This condition also holds under the more general settings. Thus, this note o ers an empirically testable hypothesis, i.e., Matsuyama's symmetry breaking is more likely, if the interest rate response to income changes is positive and sufficiently large.
Testing For Indirect Reciprocity In Charitable Activities, Christine Ho
Testing For Indirect Reciprocity In Charitable Activities, Christine Ho
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose a test of indirect reciprocity using US data on charitable activities in terms of both time and money. We find that expecting help from friends or relatives in the future positively affects the probability and the amount of charitable activities performed.
Identifying Latent Structures In Panel Data, Liangjun Su, Zhentao Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips
Identifying Latent Structures In Panel Data, Liangjun Su, Zhentao Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper provides a novel mechanism for identifying and estimating latent group structures in panel data using penalized regression techniques. We focus on linear models where the slope parameters are heterogeneous across groups but homogenous within a group and the group membership is unknown. Two approaches are considered -- penalized least squares (PLS) for models without endogenous regressors, and penalized GMM (PGMM) for models with endogeneity. In both cases we develop a new variant of Lasso called classifier-Lasso (C-Lasso) that serves to shrink individual coefficients to the unknown group-specific coefficients. C-Lasso achieves simultaneous classification and consistent estimation in a single …
A State Space Model Approach To Integrated Covariance Matrix Estimation With High Frequency Data, Cheng Liu, Cheng Yong Tang
A State Space Model Approach To Integrated Covariance Matrix Estimation With High Frequency Data, Cheng Liu, Cheng Yong Tang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We consider a state space model approach forhigh frequency financial data analysis. An expectationmaximization(EM) algorithm is developed for estimatingthe integrated covariance matrix of the assets. The statespace model with the EM algorithm can handle noisy financialdata with correlated microstructure noises. Difficultydue to asynchronous and irregularly spaced trading data ofmultiple assets can be naturally overcome by consideringthe problem in a scenario with missing data. Since the statespace model approach requires no data synchronization, norecord in the financial data is deleted so that it efficientlyincorporates information from all observations. Empiricaldata analysis supports the general specification of the statespace model, and simulations confirm …
Egalitarian Division Under Leontief Preferences, Jin Li, Jingyi Xue
Egalitarian Division Under Leontief Preferences, Jin Li, Jingyi Xue
Research Collection School Of Economics
We consider the problem of fairly dividing l divisible goods among n agents with the generalized Leontief preferences. We propose and characterize the class of generalized egalitarian rules which satisfy efficiency, group strategy-proofness, anonymity, resource monotonicity, population monotonicity, envy-freeness and consistency. On the Leontief domain, our rules generalize the egalitarian-equivalent rules with reference bundles. We also extend our rules to agent-specific and endowment-specific egalitarian rules. The former is a larger class of rules satisfying all the previous properties except anonymity and envy-freeness. The latter is a class of efficient, group strategy-proof, anonymous and individually rational rules when the resources are …
Limit Theory For An Explosive Autoregressive Process, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu
Limit Theory For An Explosive Autoregressive Process, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
Large sample properties are studied for a first-order autoregression (AR(1)) with a root greater than unity. It is shown that, contrary to the AR coefficient, the least-squares (LS) estimator of the intercept and its t-statistic are asymptotically normal without requiring the Gaussian error distribution, and hence an invariance principle applies. The coefficient based test and the t test have better power for testing the hypothesis of zero intercept in the explosive process than in the stationary process.
Singapore's Housing Policies: 1960-2013, Sock Yong Phang, Kyunghwan Kim
Singapore's Housing Policies: 1960-2013, Sock Yong Phang, Kyunghwan Kim
Research Collection School Of Economics
The focus of this case study is on the important role of real estate and housing policies in Singapore’s economic development. In the sphere of housing policy, Singapore is known for its high homeownership rates, the very significant role played by the government in housing supply and housing finance, and the wealth that has been created and distributed in the process.
Relook Link Between Low Wages And Foreign Workers, Hian Teck Hoon
Relook Link Between Low Wages And Foreign Workers, Hian Teck Hoon
Research Collection School Of Economics
He felt that the commonplace idea that the huge inflow of foreign workers in the past decade caused a stagnation and even decline in real wage earnings of Singaporean workers in the bottom half of the income distribution was flawed. He argued that real wage earnings of the median worker actually increased when the number of inflows of foreign workers was reaching its peak. Prof Hoon thus felt that Singapore must now find a means to gear its political and economic institutions to continue to embrace economic openness in the next half-century, in order to be able to deliver good …
From Coercion To Politics To Law: The Evolution Of Property Rights Protection, Fali Huang
From Coercion To Politics To Law: The Evolution Of Property Rights Protection, Fali Huang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper shows how property rights security improves over time as a result of increasing legal quality and political democratization in a political economy context, where political and legal institutions adapt to evolving factor composition of land and capital in the dynamic economic development process. There seems to exist a clear sequence of di⁄erent forms of protection in that it is unlikely to have a strong rule of law with an exploitative political regime, or to have a democratic political system when the distribution of potential coercive power is too skewed. The routine form of protection thus shifts from coercion …
Estimation Of Time-Varying Adjusted Probability Of Informed Trading And Probability Of Symmetric Order-Flow Shock, Daniel Preve, Yiu Kuen Tse
Estimation Of Time-Varying Adjusted Probability Of Informed Trading And Probability Of Symmetric Order-Flow Shock, Daniel Preve, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
Recently Duarte and Young (2009) study the probability of informed trading (PIN) proposed by Easley et al. (2002) and decompose it into two parts: the adjusted PIN (APIN) as a measure of asymmetric information and the probability of symmetric order-flow shock (PSOS) as a measure of illiquidity. They provide some cross-section estimates of these measures using daily data over annual periods. In this paper we propose a method to estimate daily APIN and PSOS by extending the method in Tay et al. (2009) using high-frequency transaction data. Our empirical results show that while PIN is positively contemporaneously correlated with variance, …
An Epidemiological Approach To Opinion And Price-Volume Dynamics, Dong Hong, Harrison G. Hong, Andrei Ungureanu
An Epidemiological Approach To Opinion And Price-Volume Dynamics, Dong Hong, Harrison G. Hong, Andrei Ungureanu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We develop a simple and tractable model of opinions and price-volume dynamics based on a word-of-mouth communication process widely used in epidemiology. Risk-averse investors have different opinions depending on whether they heard the news from a friend. Opinions initially diverge and then converge over time as news spreads, which leads to price adjustment and trading volume. News released to many leads to an expected difusion rate (the change in the fraction of investors with the news) that declines with time. But news initially released to few leads to an expected diffusion rate that initially increases in time and only then …
China At The Crossroads, Singapore Management University
China At The Crossroads, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
When villagers in Wukan village (乌坎) in Southern China protested against illegal land grabs in September 2011, it highlighted a main source of tension in China: the displacement of rural Chinese by rapid urbanisation, sometimes done illegally. The Seige of Wukan was a case in point, where local Communist Party officials had sold communally held farmland
Overcoming Fear Of The ‘Other’, Tan K. B. Eugene
Overcoming Fear Of The ‘Other’, Tan K. B. Eugene
Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law
In a commentary about the political and economic changes in Myanmar, SMU Associate Professor of Law and NMP Eugene Tan opined that deep-seated sectarian conflict could prove to be the Achilles heel of Myanmar’s reforms. He noted that the mere introduction of democracy anywhere will not miraculously transform voters into fair-minded citizens and that democracy requires the rule of law, a minimal level of education and political maturity, or it would degenerate into the tyranny of majority rule where might is right. Associate Prof Tan said that Myanmar must guard against this tendency and embrace the rich diversity in its …
Minimum Wage In A Deflationary Economy: The Japanese Experience, 1994-2003, Ryo Kambayashi, Daiji Kawaguchi, Ken Yamada
Minimum Wage In A Deflationary Economy: The Japanese Experience, 1994-2003, Ryo Kambayashi, Daiji Kawaguchi, Ken Yamada
Research Collection School Of Economics
The statutory minimum wage in Japan has increased continuously for a few decades until the early 2000s even during a period of deflation. This paper examines the impact of the minimum wage on wage and employment outcomes under this unusual circumstance. We find that the minimum-wage increase resulted in the compression of the lower tail of the wage distribution among women and that the wage compression is only partially attributable to the loss of employment. The continuous increase in the minimum wage accounts for one half of the reduction in lower-tail inequality that occurred among women during the period between …
Nonparametric Regression Estimation With General Parametric Error Covariance: A More Efficient Two-Step Estimator, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah, Yun Wang
Nonparametric Regression Estimation With General Parametric Error Covariance: A More Efficient Two-Step Estimator, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah, Yun Wang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Recently Martins-Filho and Yao (J Multivar Anal 100:309–333, 2009) have proposed a two-step estimator of nonparametric regression function with parametric error covariance and demonstrate that it is more efficient than the usual LLE. In the present paper we demonstrate that MY’s estimator can be further improved. First, we extend MY’s estimator to the multivariate case, and also establish the asymptotic theorem for the slope estimators; second, we propose a more efficient two-step estimator for nonparametric regression function with general parametric error covariance, and develop the corresponding asymptotic theorems. Monte Carlo study shows the relative efficiency loss of MY’s estimator in …
Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin
Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin
Research Collection School Of Economics
This study uses a newly developed bubble detection method (Phillips, Shi, and Yu, 2011) to identify real estate bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Our empirical results reveal several positive bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market, including one in 1995, a stronger one in 1997, yet another one in 2004, and a more recent one in 2008. In addition, the method identifies two negative bubbles in the data, one in 2000 and the other one in 2001. These empirical results continue to be valid for the mass segment and the luxury segment. However, this method has …
Nonparametric Dynamic Panel Data Models: Kernel Estimation And Specification Testing, Liangjun Su, Xun Lu
Nonparametric Dynamic Panel Data Models: Kernel Estimation And Specification Testing, Liangjun Su, Xun Lu
Research Collection School Of Economics
Motivated by the first-differencing method for linear panel data models, we propose a class of iterative local polynomial estimators for nonparametric dynamic panel data models with or without exogenous regressors. The estimators utilize the additive structure of the first-differenced model—the fact that the two additive components have the same functional form, and the unknown function of interest is implicitly defined as a solution of a Fredholm integral equation of the second kind. We establish the uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators. We also propose a consistent test for the correct specification of linearity in typical dynamic panel data …
An Exploratory Study On The Adoption And Use Of Ict In Myanmar, Sim Kim Lau, Graham K. Winley, Sim Yee Lau, Kim Song Tan
An Exploratory Study On The Adoption And Use Of Ict In Myanmar, Sim Kim Lau, Graham K. Winley, Sim Yee Lau, Kim Song Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
This exploratory study investigates the adoption and use of information and communication technologies in Myanmar by examining the nature and structure of the information technology profession. The investigation is based on a theoretical framework consisting of three components: domains of information technology professional expertise; the scope of the information technology professional’s knowledge, skills and experience; and specific knowledge and skills associated with the domains of professional expertise. The findings show that specialist skills in systems development, database, network and communications are important. This paper also provides insights that are not found in current literature which investigates information technology skills in …
Robust Virtual Implementation With Almost Complete Information, Takashi Kunimoto
Robust Virtual Implementation With Almost Complete Information, Takashi Kunimoto
Research Collection School Of Economics
Artemov, Kunimoto, and Serrano (2013a,b, henceforth, AKS) study amechanism design problem where arbitrary restrictions are placed on the setof first-order beliefs of agents. Calling these restrictions Δ, they adopt Δ-rationalizability (Battigalli and Siniscalchi (2003)) and show that Δ-incentivecompatibility and Δ-measurability are necessary and sufficient conditions forrobust virtual implementation. By appropriately defining Δ in order to restrictattention to complete information environments, I exploit the implicationsof AKS and show that the permissive implementation result of Abreu andMatsushima (1992a) is robust to how the underlying type space is specified.However, AKS need to fix a complete information environment throughouttheir analysis and therefore does not …
Affordable Fares, Sustainable Public Transport: The Fare Review Mechanism Committee Report, Sock Yong Phang
Affordable Fares, Sustainable Public Transport: The Fare Review Mechanism Committee Report, Sock Yong Phang
Research Collection School Of Economics
The public transport system in Singapore is the main mode of transport for the majority of the population. It is important that public transport remains generally affordable and accessible, with measures to help various commuter groups through fare assistance schemes. Household surveys show that public transport has become more affordable as a proportion of monthly household income over the years. Public transport fares have increased, but at a much lower rate than increases in income. At the same time, increasing fuel costs and other changes in the public transport landscape since 2005 mean that the public transport industry faces declining …
A Spatial Analysis Of The Italian Second Republic, Massimiliano Landi, Ricardo Pelizzo
A Spatial Analysis Of The Italian Second Republic, Massimiliano Landi, Ricardo Pelizzo
Research Collection School Of Economics
The Optimal Classification method is applied to a newly created data set to provide a spatial map of the Italian Second Republic (1996–2008). A bi-dimensional political space was found in the XIII Legislature and virtually a one-dimensional political space in the XIV and XV Legislatures. In addition, the main dimension is explained along the government–opposition dimension rather than on the traditional left–right dimension. During the Second Republic, Italy experienced changes in the electoral system and in the format of parties. The data are used to discuss the implications of either change on the dimensionality space. It was found that the …
Modeling Myopia: Application To Non-Renewable Resource Extraction, Tomoki Fujii
Modeling Myopia: Application To Non-Renewable Resource Extraction, Tomoki Fujii
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a parsimonious model of myopia with an infinitesimal period of commitment as an extension to a standard dynamic optimization in a continuous-time environment. We clearly distinguish the processes of planning future controls and choosing the current control, which makes the model both analytically and numerically convenient. In its application to a simple non-renewable resource extraction problem, we show that whether the terminal time is free or fixed determines the appropriateness of the approximation to myopic agents by constant discounting. We also show that the expiry of extraction permits may be useful in the presence of myopia.
Shrinkage Empirical Likelihood Estimator In Longitudinal Analysis With Time-Dependent Covariates: Application To Modeling The Health Of Filipino Children, Denis H. Y. Leung, Dylan S. Small, Jing Qin, Min Zhu
Shrinkage Empirical Likelihood Estimator In Longitudinal Analysis With Time-Dependent Covariates: Application To Modeling The Health Of Filipino Children, Denis H. Y. Leung, Dylan S. Small, Jing Qin, Min Zhu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The method of generalized estimating equations (GEE) is a popular tool for analysing longitudinal (panel) data. Often, the covariates collected are time-dependent in nature, for example, age, relapse status, monthly income. When using GEE to analyse longitudinal data with time-dependent covariates, crucial assumptions about the covariates are necessary for valid inferences to be drawn. When those assumptions do not hold or cannot be verified, Pepe and Anderson (1994, Communications in Statistics, Simulations and Computation 23, 939–951) advocated using an independence working correlation assumption in the GEE model as a robust approach. However, using GEE with the independence correlation assumption may …
Robust Bayesian Model Selection, Yong Li, Jun Yu
Robust Bayesian Model Selection, Yong Li, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper extends the robust Bayesian inference in misspecified models of Müller (2013, Econometrica) to Bayesian model selection of a set of misspecified models. It is shown that when a model is misspecified, under the Kullback-Leibler loss function, the risk associated with Müller's posterior is less (weakly) than that with the original posterior distribution asymptotically. Based on this new result, two new information criteria are proposed for model selection under model misspecification. Sufficient conditions are provided for the risk associated with Müller's posterior to be strictly smaller.
Grandchild Care, Intergenerational Transfers, And Grandparents’ Labor Supply, Christine Ho
Grandchild Care, Intergenerational Transfers, And Grandparents’ Labor Supply, Christine Ho
Research Collection School Of Economics
One-fifth of children aged below five with employed mothers benefit from grandparent provided child care as their main source of daycare in the U.S. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we investigate how grandchild care needs relate to intergenerational transfers of time and money and grandparents’ labor supply behavior. We find that grandparents with a new born grandchild are more likely to provide grandchild care while married grandparents are also more likely to be employed and provide financial help. Grandparents with grandchildren living close by provided higher time transfers while married grandmothers with resident grandchildren also worked longer …
Heteroskedasticity And Non-Normality Robust Lm Tests Of Spatial Dependence, Badi H. Baltagi, Zhenlin Yang
Heteroskedasticity And Non-Normality Robust Lm Tests Of Spatial Dependence, Badi H. Baltagi, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
The standard LM tests for spatial dependence in linear and panel regressions are derived under the normality and homoskedasticity assumptions of the regression disturbances. Hence, they may not be robust against non-normality or heteroskedasticity of the disturbances. Following Born and Breitung (2011), we introduce general methods to modify the standard LM tests so that they become robust against heteroskedasticity and non-normality. The idea behind the robustification is to decompose the concentrated score function into a sum of uncorrelated terms so that the outer product of gradient (OPG) can be used to estimate its variance. We also provide methods for improving …
Semiparametric Estimation In Triangular System Equations With Nonstationarity, Jiti Gao, Peter C. B. Phillips
Semiparametric Estimation In Triangular System Equations With Nonstationarity, Jiti Gao, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
A system of multivariate semiparametric nonlinear time series models is studied with possible dependence structures and nonstationarities in the parametric and nonparametric components. The parametric regressors may be endogenous while the nonparametric regressors are assumed to be strictly exogenous. The parametric regressors may be stationary or nonstationary and the nonparametric regressors are nonstationary integrated time series. Semiparametric least squares (SLS) estimation is considered and its asymptotic properties are derived. Due to endogeneity in the parametric regressors, SLS is not consistent for the parametric component and a semiparametric instrumental variable (SIV) method is proposed instead. Under certain regularity conditions, the SIV …