Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Economics Commons™

Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Selected Works

Discipline
Keyword
Publication Year
Publication
File Type

Articles 91 - 120 of 5623

Full-Text Articles in Economics

Understanding The Decline Of U.S. Manufacturing Employment, Susan N. Houseman Jun 2018

Understanding The Decline Of U.S. Manufacturing Employment, Susan N. Houseman

Susan N. Houseman

U.S. manufacturing experienced a precipitous and historically unprecedented decline in employment in the 2000s. Many economists and other analysts—pointing to decades of statistics showing that manufacturing real (inflation-adjusted) output growth has largely kept pace with private sector real output growth, that productivity growth has been much higher, and that the sector’s share of aggregate employment has been declining—argue that manufacturing’s job losses are largely the result of productivity growth (assumed to reflect automation) and are part of a long-term trend. Since the 1980s, however, the apparently robust growth in manufacturing real output and productivity have been driven by a relatively …

Go to article

The Causal Effects Of Short-Selling Bans: Evidence From Eligibility Thresholds, Alan D. Crane, Kevin Crotty, Sebastien Michenaud, Patricia L. Naranjo Jun 2018

The Causal Effects Of Short-Selling Bans: Evidence From Eligibility Thresholds, Alan D. Crane, Kevin Crotty, Sebastien Michenaud, Patricia L. Naranjo

Sébastien Michenaud

We identify the causal effects of short-selling bans on stock prices using regression discontinuity (RD). We exploit three threshold-based rules that determine a stock’s short-selling eligibility on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Short-selling bans have a large effect on short-selling volume at all thresholds. Despite this, bans do not affect stock prices. Stock returns, volatility, and crash risk are not different for banned versus unrestricted stocks when appropriate counterfactual stocks are used to measure a ban’s effects. Our findings suggest that short-selling bans are not as costly as previously argued, but are ineffective at reducing volatility or buttressing prices.

Go to article

Inversion Copulas From Nonlinear State Space Models With An Application To Inflation Forecasting, Michael S. Smith, Worapree Ole Maneesoonthorn May 2018

Inversion Copulas From Nonlinear State Space Models With An Application To Inflation Forecasting, Michael S. Smith, Worapree Ole Maneesoonthorn

Michael Stanley Smith

We propose the construction of copulas through the inversion of nonlinear state space models. These copulas allow for new time series models that have the same serial dependence structure as a state space model, but with an arbitrary marginal distribution, and flexible density forecasts. We examine the time series properties of the copulas, outline serial dependence measures, and estimate the models using likelihood-based methods. Copulas constructed from three example state space models are considered: a stochastic volatility model with an unobserved component, a Markov switching autoregression, and a Gaussian linear unobserved component model. We show that all three inversion copulas …

Go to article

Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith May 2018

Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

There is a growing interest in allowing for asymmetry in the density forecasts of macroeconomic variables. 
In multivariate time series, this can be achieved with a copula model, where both serial and cross-sectional dependence is captured by a copula function, and the margins are nonparametric. Yet most existing copulas cannot capture heteroskedasticity well, which is a feature of many economic and financial time series. To do so, we propose a new copula created by the inversion of a multivariate unobserved component stochastic volatility model, and show how to estimate it using Bayesian methods. We fit the copula model to real-time data on five …

Go to article

Political Competition In Legislative Elections, Stefan Krasa, Mattias K. Polborn May 2018

Political Competition In Legislative Elections, Stefan Krasa, Mattias K. Polborn

Mattias K Polborn

We develop a theory of political competition in legislative elections based upon the notion that majority  party legislators collaboratively influence policy.
Because of this team aspect, a candidate's party label  matters for voters, in addition to his own policy positions.  In equilibrium, candidates may be unable to escape the burden of their party association, and primary voters in both parties can often nominate extremist candidates and still win.
We also show that gerrymandering affects the equilibrium platforms not only in those districts that become more extreme, but also in those that ideologically do not change.

Go to article

Distance-Varying Assortativity And Clustering Of The International Trade Network, Angela Abbate, Luca De Benedictis, Giorgio Fagiolo, Lucia Tajoli May 2018

Distance-Varying Assortativity And Clustering Of The International Trade Network, Angela Abbate, Luca De Benedictis, Giorgio Fagiolo, Lucia Tajoli

Luca De Benedictis

In this paper we study how the topology of the International Trade Network (ITN) changes in geographical space, and along time. We employ geographical distance between countries in the World to filter the links in the ITN, building a sequence of sub-networks, each one featuring trade links occurring at similar distance. We then test if the assortativity
and clustering of ITN subnetworks changes as distance increases, and we nd that this is indeed the case: distance strongly impacts, in a non-linear way, the topology of the ITN.We show that the ITN is disassortative at long distances while it is assortative …

Go to article

What Works To Help Manufacturing-Intensive Local Economies?, Timothy J. Bartik May 2018

What Works To Help Manufacturing-Intensive Local Economies?, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

No abstract provided.

Go to article

The Decline Of U.S. Manufacturing Employment - Automation And Trade, Susan N. Houseman May 2018

The Decline Of U.S. Manufacturing Employment - Automation And Trade, Susan N. Houseman

Susan N. Houseman

No abstract provided.

Go to article

Imitation In Heterogeneous Populations, Jonas Hedlund, Carlos Oyarzun Apr 2018

Imitation In Heterogeneous Populations, Jonas Hedlund, Carlos Oyarzun

Carlos Oyarzun

Abstract We study a boundedly rational model of imitation when payoff distributions of actions differ across types of individuals. Individuals observe others' actions and payoffs, and a comparison signal. Two possible inefficiencies may arise: (i) uniform adoption, i.e., all individuals choose the action that is optimal for one type but sub-optimal for the other, or (ii) dual incomplete learning, i.e., only a fraction of each type chooses its optimal action. Which one occurs depends on the composition of the population and how critical the choice is for different types of individuals. In an application, we show that a monopolist serving …

Go to article

Re-Imagining The Labor Movement As A Social Movement, James Patin Mar 2018

Re-Imagining The Labor Movement As A Social Movement, James Patin

James Patin

This paper presents a new theoretical contribution which seeks to provide a framework
for the labor movement to be rebuilt by engaging both in traditional labor struggles and in social
movements. I argue that the labor movement must use labor power to fight for social change on
all fronts, using demands which bridge member consciousness to social movement
consciousness, as well as framing and organizing tactics which unite the community around the
union. This paper provides a theoretical analysis of labor movement and social movement theory
and practice. We demonstrate that Marxist Theory has been historically present, but that it …

Go to article

Progressive Policy, Howard J. Sherman Mar 2018

Progressive Policy, Howard J. Sherman

HOWARD J SHERMAN

This article is based, with some improvements and updating, on chapter 15 of Howard Sherman and Paul Sherman, INEQUALITY, BOOM AND BUST: FROM BILLIONAIRE CAPITALISM TO EQUALITY AND FULL EMPLOYMENT (London and New York: Rutledge, 2018 - see book on this site to read chapter 1). There are two important findings about the United States (U.S.) economy from Sherman (2018). First, each expansion of capitalism during the business cycle causes increased income and wealth inequality. Second, rising inequality is the major cause of recessions, depressions, and unemployment.

The policy proposals in this article are based on those championed by …

Go to article

Improving Economic Development Incentives, Timothy J. Bartik Mar 2018

Improving Economic Development Incentives, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

No abstract provided.

Go to article

Who Benefits From Economic Development Incentives? How Incentive Effects On Local Incomes And The Income Distribution Vary With Different Assumptions About Incentive Policy And The Local Economy, Timothy J. Bartik Mar 2018

Who Benefits From Economic Development Incentives? How Incentive Effects On Local Incomes And The Income Distribution Vary With Different Assumptions About Incentive Policy And The Local Economy, Timothy J. Bartik

Timothy J. Bartik

This report presents results from a simulation model that examines the effects of economic development incentives (e.g., tax incentives such as property tax abatements or job creation tax credits) provided to businesses by state and local governments in the United States. The model simulates effects of incentive policies on the incomes of local residents, both for different income types (e.g., labor income versus property income) and for different income quintiles, under different assumptions about the economy’s workings and public policy. Net benefits of incentives for local incomes are greater if the incentives have greater job-creation effects conditional on their effects …

Go to article

Degrees Of Poverty: The Relationship Between Family Income Background And The Returns To Education, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein Mar 2018

Degrees Of Poverty: The Relationship Between Family Income Background And The Returns To Education, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein

Timothy J. Bartik

Drawing on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we document a startling empirical pattern: the career earnings premium from a four-year college degree (relative to a high school diploma) for persons from low-income backgrounds is considerably less than it is for those from higher-income backgrounds. For individuals whose family income in high school was above 1.85 times the poverty level, we estimate that career earnings for bachelor’s graduates are 136 percent higher than earnings for those whose education stopped at high school. However, for individuals whose family income during high school was below 1.85 times the poverty level, the career …

Go to article

Degrees Of Poverty: The Relationship Between Family Income Background And The Returns To Education, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein Mar 2018

Degrees Of Poverty: The Relationship Between Family Income Background And The Returns To Education, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein

Brad J. Hershbein

Drawing on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we document a startling empirical pattern: the career earnings premium from a four-year college degree (relative to a high school diploma) for persons from low-income backgrounds is considerably less than it is for those from higher-income backgrounds. For individuals whose family income in high school was above 1.85 times the poverty level, we estimate that career earnings for bachelor’s graduates are 136 percent higher than earnings for those whose education stopped at high school. However, for individuals whose family income during high school was below 1.85 times the poverty level, the career …

Go to article

Inequality, Boom, And Bust: From Billionaire Capitalism To Equality And Full Employment, Howard J. Sherman, Paul Sherman Mar 2018

Inequality, Boom, And Bust: From Billionaire Capitalism To Equality And Full Employment, Howard J. Sherman, Paul Sherman

HOWARD J SHERMAN

There is enormous inequality between the income and wealth of the richest 1 percent and all other Americans. While the top 1 percent own 42 percent of all wealth in America, the lower half on the income ladder has only 2 percent of all of the wealth. This book develops a viewpoint contrary to the prevailing conservative paradigm, setting out both reasons for this inequality and the impact of this. To explain inequality, conservative economists focus on individual characteristics such as intelligence and hard work. This book puts forward new evidence to show that changes in economic inequality are primarily …

Go to article

Inequality, Boom, And Bust: From Billionaire Capitalism To Equality And Full Employment, Howard J. Sherman, Paul Sherman Mar 2018

Inequality, Boom, And Bust: From Billionaire Capitalism To Equality And Full Employment, Howard J. Sherman, Paul Sherman

HOWARD J SHERMAN

There is enormous inequality between the income and wealth of the richest 1 percent and all other Americans. While the top 1 percent own 42 percent of all wealth in America, the lower half on the income ladder has only 2 percent of all of the wealth. This book develops a viewpoint contrary to the prevailing conservative paradigm, setting out both reasons for this inequality and the impact of this. To explain inequality, conservative economists focus on individual characteristics such as intelligence and hard work. This book puts forward new evidence to show that changes in economic inequality are primarily …

Go to article

Do Medical Marijuana Laws Reduce Addictions And Deaths Related To Pain Killers?, David Powell, Rosalie Pacula, Mireille Jacobson Feb 2018

Do Medical Marijuana Laws Reduce Addictions And Deaths Related To Pain Killers?, David Powell, Rosalie Pacula, Mireille Jacobson

David Powell

Recent work finds that medical marijuana laws reduce the daily doses filled for opioid analgesics among Medicare Part-D and Medicaid enrollees, as well as population-wide opioid overdose deaths. We replicate the result for opioid overdose deaths and explore the potential mechanism. The key feature of a medical marijuana law that facilitates a reduction in overdose death rates is a relatively liberal allowance for dispensaries.  As states have become more stringent in their regulation of dispensaries, the protective value generally has fallen. These findings suggest that broader access to medical marijuana facilitates substitution of marijuana for powerful and addictive opioids. 

Go to article

Sacred Heart Federal Reserve Challenge List.Docx, Jonathan Herrmann Feb 2018

Sacred Heart Federal Reserve Challenge List.Docx, Jonathan Herrmann

Jonathan Herrmann

No abstract provided.

Go to article

The Heterogeneous Cyclicality Of Income And Wages Among The Distribution In The Uk, Maria Cervini, Antonia Lopez, José I. Silva Feb 2018

The Heterogeneous Cyclicality Of Income And Wages Among The Distribution In The Uk, Maria Cervini, Antonia Lopez, José I. Silva

José Ignacio Silva

We investigate the cyclicality of real hourly wages and income using individual data for the UK over the 1991-2013 period. By paying special attention to the heterogeneity among different earnings and income groups, we document
that individuals at the top of the distribution are more cyclical than lower ones. We also show that real wages and income are roughly acyclical for low wage and income workers. In particular, we present evidence that the adjustment for low-paid workers takes place through transitions to and from unemployment.

Go to article

Re-Conceptualizing The Economic Incorporation Of Immigrants: A Comparison Of The Mexican And Vietnamese, Shannon Gleeson Feb 2018

Re-Conceptualizing The Economic Incorporation Of Immigrants: A Comparison Of The Mexican And Vietnamese, Shannon Gleeson

Shannon Gleeson

Using data from the 2000 5 per cent Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, this article advocates three shifts in our theoretical and empirical approaches to understanding immigrant economic incorporation. First, through a comparison of Mexican and Vietnamese immigrants, these findings highlight the importance of an immigrant population’s relationship to the state for economic outcomes, and cautions against analyses that aggregate the foreign-born population. Second, through a joint analysis of unemployment and poverty outcomes, these findings call for researchers to be specific about the varied aspects of ‘‘economic incorporation’’ and distinguish between factors that drive labor market access, and those that …

Go to article

Understanding Financial Risk Through Complexity: Application To Real Time Series, Catherine Kyrtsou, Anastasios Malliaris, Christina Mikropoulou Feb 2018

Understanding Financial Risk Through Complexity: Application To Real Time Series, Catherine Kyrtsou, Anastasios Malliaris, Christina Mikropoulou

A. (Tassos) Malliaris

No abstract provided.

Go to article

Do Deterrents Prevent Undeclared Work? An Evaluation Of The Rational Economic Actor Approach, Ioana Horodnic, Colin C. Williams Jan 2018

Do Deterrents Prevent Undeclared Work? An Evaluation Of The Rational Economic Actor Approach, Ioana Horodnic, Colin C. Williams

Colin C Williams

Across the member states of the European Union and beyond, paid transactions occur that are not declared to the state for tax, social security and/or labour law purposes when they should be declared. This is not a minority practice. The undeclared economy is estimated to be equivalent to 17.9 per cent of the EU28 GDP in 2016. Similarly, it is estimated that 9.3 per cent of total labour input in the private sector in the EU28 is undeclared and that undeclared work constitutes on average 14.3 per cent of gross value added in the private sector. Furthermore, in 2013, 4 …

Go to article

Is Microfinance Raising Village Income? The Issue Of Excess Entry, Catherine C. De Fontenay Jan 2018

Is Microfinance Raising Village Income? The Issue Of Excess Entry, Catherine C. De Fontenay

Catherine de Fontenay

This paper provides new insight into the question of why we have not seen microfinance pro- grams lift beneficiary regions out of poverty. We suggest that the explanation may lie in the industry choice of microfinance participants: if borrowers tend to enter imperfectly competitive sectors, such as retail, there may be a “business-stealing” effect that reduces incomes of existing businesses. Our model shows that microfinance may lower total incomes at the village level. The result is related to the classic Mankiw and Whinston result on excess entry. The results imply that microfinance organizations may want to steer recipients away from …

Go to article

'They Come Here To Work': An Evaluation Of The Economic Argument In Favor Of Immigrant Rights, Shannon Gleeson Jan 2018

'They Come Here To Work': An Evaluation Of The Economic Argument In Favor Of Immigrant Rights, Shannon Gleeson

Shannon Gleeson

Advocates commonly highlight the exploitation that hard-working undocumented immigrants commonly suffer at the hands of employers, the important contribution they make to the US economy, and the fiscal folly of border militarization and enhanced immigration enforcement policies. In this paper, I unpack these economic rationales for expanding immigrant rights, and examine the nuanced ways in which advocates deploy this frame. To do so, I rely on statements issued by publicly present immigrant rights groups in six places: California, Florida, Illinois, New York, Texas, and Washington, DC. I also draw on interviews with immigrant advocates in San Jose, CA and Houston, …

Go to article

International Migration In Macro-Perspective: Bringing Power Back In, Marcel Paret, Shannon Gleeson Jan 2018

International Migration In Macro-Perspective: Bringing Power Back In, Marcel Paret, Shannon Gleeson

Shannon Gleeson

This paper challenges the inward looking perspective of recent immigration research by situating migration to the United States within a global and historical context. This macro-stratification perspective breaks out of the confines of national contexts to explore how international migration is shaped by global power divides. We argue that in order to fully understand international migration, it is necessary to account for both the emergence of global power structures and the historical domination of Europe. We develop our argument by first outlining the significance of global power divides, with a particular focus on the United States. We then demonstrate how …

Go to article

Temperature And Human Capital In The Short- And Long-Run, Joshua Graff Zivin, Solomon Hsiang, Matthew Neidell Dec 2017

Temperature And Human Capital In The Short- And Long-Run, Joshua Graff Zivin, Solomon Hsiang, Matthew Neidell

Joshua Graff Zivin

We provide the first estimates of the potential impact of climate change on cognitive performance and attainment, focusing on the impacts from both short-run weather and long-run climate. Exploiting the longitudinal structure of the NLSY79 and random fluctuations in weather across interviews, we identify the effect of temperature in models with child-specific fixed effects. We find that short-run changes in temperature lead to statistically significant decreases in cognitive performance on math (but not reading) beyond 26C (78.8F). In contrast, our long-run analysis, which relies upon long-difference and rich cross-sectional models, reveals an imprecisely estimated effect that is significantly smaller than …

Go to article

Precarious Paradise: The Financial Well-Being Of Hispanic Immigrant Day Laborers In Malibu, Luisa Blanco, Lila M. Carlsen, Daniel R. Morrison, George Carlsen, Ashley Chaparro, Erick Molina Dec 2017

Precarious Paradise: The Financial Well-Being Of Hispanic Immigrant Day Laborers In Malibu, Luisa Blanco, Lila M. Carlsen, Daniel R. Morrison, George Carlsen, Ashley Chaparro, Erick Molina

Lila McDowell Carlsen

Using a mixed method approach we conducted a study consisting of written surveys, focus groups, and individual interviews with 58 men and women who were seeking employment through the Malibu Community Labor Exchange (MCLE) at the time of the study and were predominantly Hispanic immigrants. A central aim of this study is to develop an understanding of how Spanish-speaking Hispanic immigrant day laborers have fared financially in the aftermath of the economic crisis of 2007-2008. We find in our study that weak labor market conditions and intersecting inequities have led to job insecurity, job scarcity, and wage stagnation among workers …

Go to article

Investor Valuations Of Japan's Adoption Of A Territorial Tax Regime: Quantifying The Direct And Competitive Effects Of International Tax Reform, Sebastien J. Bradley, Estelle Dauchy, Makoto Hasegawa Dec 2017

Investor Valuations Of Japan's Adoption Of A Territorial Tax Regime: Quantifying The Direct And Competitive Effects Of International Tax Reform, Sebastien J. Bradley, Estelle Dauchy, Makoto Hasegawa

Sebastien J Bradley

Despite an extensive literature on the normative implications of different international tax regimes and an empirical literature addressing individual specific predictions, there exists little evidence encompassing the broad range of effects of taxing corporations' foreign-source income on a worldwide or territorial basis. This paper takes a more comprehensive quantitative approach by examining stock market reactions surrounding four events over the course of which Japan's 2009 adoption of a dividend exemption system was developed into proposed law. Using an event study methodology which leverages individual firm characteristics and accounts for contemporaneous financial market developments, we find that Japanese firms with less …

Go to article

Simulating Hospital Merger Simulations, David J. Balan, Keith Brand Dec 2017

Simulating Hospital Merger Simulations, David J. Balan, Keith Brand

David J. Balan

We assess the performance of three hospital merger simulation methods by means of a Monte Carlo experiment. We fi#12;rst specify a rich theoretical model of hospital markets and use it to generate "true" price eff#11;ects of a large number of hospital mergers. We then use the theoretical model to generate the data that would be available in a real-world prospective merger analysis and apply the merger simulation methods to those data. Finally, we compare the predictions of the merger simulation methods to the true price eff#11;ects. While there is some heterogeneity in performance, all three simulation methods perform reasonably well.

Go to article

First Prev Next Last