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Articles 1 - 9 of 9
Full-Text Articles in Economics
On The Effect And Remedies Of Shrinkage On Classification Probability Estimation, Zhengxiao Wu, Yufeng Liu, Zhengxiao Wu
On The Effect And Remedies Of Shrinkage On Classification Probability Estimation, Zhengxiao Wu, Yufeng Liu, Zhengxiao Wu
Research Collection School of Economics
Shrinkage methods have been shown to be effective for classification problems. As a form of regularization, shrinkage through penalization helps to avoid overfitting and produces accurate classifiers for prediction, especially when the dimension is relatively high. Despite the benefit of shrinkage on classification accuracy of resulting classifiers, in this article, we demonstrate that shrinkage creates biases on classification probability estimation. In many cases, this bias can be large and consequently yield poor class probability estimation when the sample size is small or moderate. We offer some theoretical insights into the effect of shrinkage and provide remedies for better class probability …
Allocative Efficiency, Mark-Ups, And The Welfare Gains From Trade, Thomas J. Holmes, Wen-Tai Hsu, Sanghoon Lee
Allocative Efficiency, Mark-Ups, And The Welfare Gains From Trade, Thomas J. Holmes, Wen-Tai Hsu, Sanghoon Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops an index of allocative efficiency that depends upon the distribution of mark-ups across goods and is separable from an index of standard Ricardian gains from trade. It determines how changes in trade frictions affect allocative efficiency in an oligopoly model of international trade, decomposing the effect into the cost-change channel and the price-change channel. Formulas are derived shedding light on the signs and magnitudes of the two channels. In symmetric country models, trade tends to increase allocative efficiency through the cost-change channel, yielding a welfare benefit beyond productive efficiency gains. In contrast, the price-change channel has ambiguous …
‘Educating Indonesia’ And The Minister Who’S Making It Happen, Singapore Management University
‘Educating Indonesia’ And The Minister Who’S Making It Happen, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
Energy and optimism were highlights of the recent speech given by Indonesia’s Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan during the SMU Presidential Distinguished Lecturer Series. While the optimism may be rooted deeply in the potential of Indonesia’s current demographic — more than 30 percent of its population is aged between 19 and 24, and more than 50 percent is under 29, making it one of the youngest productive populations in the world — its economic success story is fact, reflected in its G-20 membership, where it is the second fastest growing economy.Yet much remains to be done to unleash the full potential …
Host Country Financial Development And Mnc Activity, L. Kamran Bilir, Davin Chor, Manova Kalina
Host Country Financial Development And Mnc Activity, L. Kamran Bilir, Davin Chor, Manova Kalina
Research Collection School Of Economics
Multinational corporations (MNCs) manage complex operations, often blending features of three modes of FDI that are well understood in isolation but not in tandem, namely: horizontal, vertical and export-platform FDI. We develop a three-country model with heterogeneous firms, in order to analyze how financing constraints in the FDI host country affect the relative strength of these three motives for FDI. In our model, financial development in the host country fosters entry by domestic firms, making the local market more competitive for MNC products. This leads MNCs to orient their affiliate sales away from the local market toward other markets instead. …
Entropy-Based Analysis And Bioinformatics-Inspired Integration Of Global Economic Information Transfer, Jinkyu Kim, Gunn Kim, Sungbae An, Young-Kyun Kwon, Sungroh Yoon
Entropy-Based Analysis And Bioinformatics-Inspired Integration Of Global Economic Information Transfer, Jinkyu Kim, Gunn Kim, Sungbae An, Young-Kyun Kwon, Sungroh Yoon
Research Collection School Of Economics
The assessment of information transfer in the global economic network helps to understand the current environment and the outlook of an economy. Most approaches on global networks extract information transfer based mainly on a single variable. This paper establishes an entirely new bioinformatics-inspired approach to integrating information transfer derived from multiple variables and develops an international economic network accordingly. In the proposed methodology, we first construct the transfer entropies (TEs) between various intra- and inter-country pairs of economic time series variables, test their significances, and then use a weighted sum approach to aggregate information captured in each TE. Through a …
Impact Of Sovereign Debt Restructuring On Financial Flows: The Case Of Indonesia, Hwee Kwan Chow, C. Adams
Impact Of Sovereign Debt Restructuring On Financial Flows: The Case Of Indonesia, Hwee Kwan Chow, C. Adams
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Can A Financial Conditions Index Guide Monetary Policy? The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow
Can A Financial Conditions Index Guide Monetary Policy? The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this study, we explore the issue of whether a financial conditions index can serve as a useful guide to monetary policy in the context of Singapore. To this end, we construct an index that comprises not only the usual monetary variables like interest rates, exchange rates and credit expansions but also asset prices such as stock prices and house prices. The choice of these constituent series is motivated by the role they play in the monetary transmission mechanism with consideration given to the key role leverage plays in modern business cycles and the risk-taking channel magnified by the prolonged …
Financial Development, International Capital Flows, And Aggregate Output, Jürgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
Financial Development, International Capital Flows, And Aggregate Output, Jürgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a tractable two-country overlapping-generations model and show that cross-country differences in financial development can explain three recent empirical patterns of international capital flows: Financial capital flows from relatively poor to relatively rich countries, while foreign direct investment flows in the opposite direction; net capital flows go from poor to rich countries; despite its negative net international investment positions, the United States receives a positive net investment income. International capital mobility affects output in each country directly through the size of domestic investment and indirectly through the aggregate saving rate. Under certain conditions, the indirect effect may dominate the …
Monetary Regime Choice In Singapore: Would A Tayor Rule Outperform Exchange-Rate Management?, Hwee Kwan Chow, G.C. Lim, P. Mcnelis
Monetary Regime Choice In Singapore: Would A Tayor Rule Outperform Exchange-Rate Management?, Hwee Kwan Chow, G.C. Lim, P. Mcnelis
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper adopts a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium-vector autorgressive (DSGE-VAR) approach to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore. We examine if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate and adopting a Taylor rule. Our results show that, in terms of overall inflation volatility, the exchange rate rule has a comparative advantage over the Taylor rule when export price shocks are the major sources of real volatility, while a Taylor rule dominates when domestic productivity shocks drive real volatility. The exchange-rate rule also dominates the Taylor rule for reducing inflation persistence.