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Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
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- Binomial economy (4)
- Collateral equilibrium (4)
- Default (4)
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- Matrix games (4)
- Bounded rationality (3)
- Diluted leverage (3)
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- Dissemination of asymmetric information (2)
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- Experimental gaming (2)
- Efficiency of security markets (2)
- Health reform (2)
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- Kantian equilibrium (2)
- Local to unity (2)
- Minimally-rational agents (2)
- Multiple equilibria (2)
- Nash equilibrium (2)
- Nota Bene (2)
- Predictive regression (2)
- Rational expectations (2)
- Social ethos (2)
- Solution concepts (2)
Articles 31 - 58 of 58
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
A Web Gaming Facility For Research And Teaching, Martin Shubik
A Web Gaming Facility For Research And Teaching, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This essay considers the potential for utilizing web games for research and teaching. It discusses a specific gaming facility that has been constructed and utilized. The gaming facility can be made available for use for those interested in utilizing it for teaching and/or research purposes. The goal is to have this facility be of use for both single play and repeated matrix games. Much of the discussion here is aimed at single play games as a desirable benchmark preliminary to the study of repeated games. Properties of the one stage games are discussed and instructions for the use of the …
A Web Gaming Facility For Research And Teaching, Martin Shubik
A Web Gaming Facility For Research And Teaching, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This essay considers the potential for utilizing web games for research and teaching. It discusses a specific gaming facility that has been constructed and utilized. The gaming facility can be made available for use for those interested in utilizing it for teaching and/or research purposes. The goal is to have this facility be of use for both single play and repeated matrix games. Much of the discussion here is aimed at single play games as a desirable benchmark preliminary to the study of repeated games. Properties of the one stage games are discussed and instructions for the use of the …
Is Fiscal Stimulus A Good Idea?, Ray C. Fair
Is Fiscal Stimulus A Good Idea?, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The results in this paper, using a structural multi-country macroeconometric model, suggest that there is at most a small gain from fiscal stimulus in the form of increased transfer payments or increased tax deductions if the increased debt generated must eventually be paid back. The gain in output and employment on the way up is roughly offset by the loss in output and employment on the way down as the debt from the initial stimulus is paid off. This conclusion is robust to different assumptions about monetary policy. To the extent that there is a gain, the longer one waits …
Competing For Customers In A Social Network (R), Pradeep Dubey, Rahul Garg, Bernard De Meyer
Competing For Customers In A Social Network (R), Pradeep Dubey, Rahul Garg, Bernard De Meyer
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
There are many situations in which a customer’s proclivity to buy the product of any firm depends not only on the classical attributes of the product such as its price and quality, but also on who else is buying the same product. Under quite general circumstances, it turns out that customers’ influence on each other dynamically converges to a steady state. Thus we can model these situations as games in which firms compete for customers located in a “social network.” A canonical example is provided by competition for advertisement on the web. Nash Equilibrium (NE) in pure strategies exist in …
Nota Bene: News From The Yale Library, Yale University Library
Nota Bene: News From The Yale Library, Yale University Library
Nota Bene
Nota Bene is published during the academic year to acquaint the Yale community and others with the resources of the Yale Library.
The Allocation Of A Prize (R), Pradeep Dubey, Siddhartha Sahi
The Allocation Of A Prize (R), Pradeep Dubey, Siddhartha Sahi
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Consider agents who undertake costly effort to produce stochastic outputs observable by a principal. The principal can award a prize deterministically to the agent with the highest output, or to all of them with probabilities that are proportional to their outputs. We show that, if there is sufficient diversity in agents’ skills relative to the noise on output, then the proportional prize will, in a precise sense, elicit more output on average, than the deterministic prize. Indeed, assuming agents know each others’ skills (the complete information case), this result holds when any Nash equilibrium selection, under the proportional prize, is …
Multi-Dimensional Mechanism Design With Limited Information, Dirk Bergemann, Ji Shen, Yun Xu, Edmund M. Yeh
Multi-Dimensional Mechanism Design With Limited Information, Dirk Bergemann, Ji Shen, Yun Xu, Edmund M. Yeh
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We analyze a nonlinear pricing model with limited information. Each buyer can purchase a large variety, d , of goods. His preference for each good is represented by a scalar and his preference over d goods is represented by a d -dimensional vector. The type space of each buyer is given by a compact subset of R d + with a continuum of possible types. By contrast, the seller is limited to offer a finite number M of d -dimensional choices. We provide necessary conditions that the optimal finite menu of the social welfare maximizing problem has to satisfy. We …
Does Reducing Spatial Differentiation Increase Product Differentiation? Effects Of Zoning On Retail Entry And Format Variety, Sumon Datta, K. Sudhir
Does Reducing Spatial Differentiation Increase Product Differentiation? Effects Of Zoning On Retail Entry And Format Variety, Sumon Datta, K. Sudhir
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper investigates the impact of spatial zoning restrictions on retail market outcomes. We estimate a structural model of entry, location and format choice across a large number of markets in the presence of zoning restrictions. The paper contributes to the literature in three ways: First, the paper demonstrates that the omission of zoning restrictions in the extant literature on entry and location choice leads to biased estimates of the factors affecting market potential and competitive intensity. Second, the cross-market variations in zoning regulations helps us test and provide evidence for the theory that constraints on spatial differentiation will lead …
Kantian Optimization: An Approach To Cooperative Behavior, John E. Roemer
Kantian Optimization: An Approach To Cooperative Behavior, John E. Roemer
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Although evidence accrues in biology, anthropology and experimental economics that homo sapiens is a cooperative species, the reigning assumption in economic theory is that individuals optimize in an autarkic manner (as in Nash and Walrasian equilibrium). I here postulate a cooperative kind of optimizing behavior, called Kantian. It is shown that in simple economic models, when there are negative externalities (such as congestion effects from use of a commonly owned resource) or positive externalities (such as a social ethos reflected in individuals’ preferences), Kantian equilibria dominate Nash-Walras equilibria in terms of efficiency. While economists schooled in Nash equilibrium may view …
Bounded Rationality And Limited Datasets: Testable Implications, Identification, And Out-Of-Sample Prediction, Geoffroy De Clippel, Kareen Rozen
Bounded Rationality And Limited Datasets: Testable Implications, Identification, And Out-Of-Sample Prediction, Geoffroy De Clippel, Kareen Rozen
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Theories of bounded rationality are typically characterized over an exhaustive data set. How does one tell whether observed choices are consistent with a theory if the data is incomplete? How can out-of-sample predictions be made? What can be identified about preferences? This paper aims to operationalize some leading bounded rationality theories when the available data is limited, as is the case in most practical settings. We also point out that the recent bounded rationality literature has overlooked a methodological pitfall that can lead to ‘false positives’ and ‘empty’ out-of-sample predictions when testing choice theories with limited data.
Getting At Systemic Risk Via An Agent-Based Model Of The Housing Market, John Geanakoplos, Robert Axtell, J. Doyne Farmer, Peter Howitt, Benjamin Conlee, Jonathan Goldstein, Matthew Hendrey
Getting At Systemic Risk Via An Agent-Based Model Of The Housing Market, John Geanakoplos, Robert Axtell, J. Doyne Farmer, Peter Howitt, Benjamin Conlee, Jonathan Goldstein, Matthew Hendrey
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Systemic risk must include the housing market, though economists have not generally focused on it. We begin construction of an agent-based model of the housing market with individual data from Washington, DC. Twenty years of success with agent-based models of mortgage prepayments give us hope that such a model could be useful. Preliminary analysis suggests that the housing boom and bust of 1997-2007 was due in large part to changes in leverage rather than interest rates.
Kantian Optimization, Social Ethos, And Pareto Efficiency, John E. Roemer
Kantian Optimization, Social Ethos, And Pareto Efficiency, John E. Roemer
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Although evidence accrues in biology, anthropology and experimental economics that homo sapiens is a cooperative species, the reigning assumption in economic theory is that individuals optimize in an autarkic manner (as in Nash and Walrasian equilibrium). I here postulate an interdependent kind of optimizing behavior, called Kantian. It is shown that in simple economic models, when there are negative externalities (such as congestion effects from use of a commonly owned resource) or positive externalities (such as a social ethos reflected in individuals’ preferences), Kantian equilibria dominate Nash-Walras equilibria in terms of efficiency. While economists schooled in Nash equilibrium may view …
Short Run Needs And Long Term Goals: A Dynamic Model Of Thirst Management, Guofang Huang, Ahmed Khwaja, K. Sudhir
Short Run Needs And Long Term Goals: A Dynamic Model Of Thirst Management, Guofang Huang, Ahmed Khwaja, K. Sudhir
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Beverage consumption occurs many times a day in response to a variety of needs that change throughout the day. In making their choices, consumers self-regulate their consumption by managing short run needs (e.g., hydration and mood pickup) with long-term goals (e.g., health). Using unique intra-day beverage consumption, activity and psychological needs data, we develop and estimate a model of high frequency consumption choices that accounts for both intra-day changes in short run needs and individual level unobserved heterogeneity in the degree of self-regulation. A novel feature of the model is that it allows for dynamics of consumption and stockpiling at …
Improved Estimates Of Using Luminosity As A Proxy For Economic Statistics: New Results And Estimates Of Precision, William D. Nordhaus, Xi Chen
Improved Estimates Of Using Luminosity As A Proxy For Economic Statistics: New Results And Estimates Of Precision, William D. Nordhaus, Xi Chen
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Previous work has analyzed whether luminosity data contain useful information for estimating economic output and concluded that there was significant promise for regions with poor quality economic statistics. The present paper examines alternative measures of the precision of the estimates using bootstrap and prior estimates of the errors for both the luminosity quality and the national accounts quality. Based on the new results, we conclude: First, for countries with high quality systems, there is no reason to use luminosity data as a supplement to standard data in any context where standard data are available. Second, we find that there is …
Mandate-Based Health Reform And The Labor Market: Evidence From The Massachusetts Reform, Jonathan T. Kolstad, Amanda E. Kowalski
Mandate-Based Health Reform And The Labor Market: Evidence From The Massachusetts Reform, Jonathan T. Kolstad, Amanda E. Kowalski
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We model the labor market impact of the three key provisions of the recent Massachusetts and national “mandate-based” health reforms: individual and employer mandates and expansions in publicly-subsidized coverage. Using our model, we characterize the compensating differential for employer-sponsored health insurance (ESHI) — the causal change in wages associated with gaining ESHI. We also characterize the welfare impact of the labor market distortion induced by health reform. We show that the welfare impact depends on a small number of sufficient statistics” that can be recovered from labor market outcomes. Relying on the reform implemented in Massachusetts in 2006, we estimate …
Sieve Inference On Semi-Nonparametric Time Series Models, Xiaohong Chen, Zhipeng Liao, Yixiao Sun
Sieve Inference On Semi-Nonparametric Time Series Models, Xiaohong Chen, Zhipeng Liao, Yixiao Sun
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The method of sieves has been widely used in estimating semiparametric and nonparametric models. In this paper, we first provide a general theory on the asymptotic normality of plug-in sieve M estimators of possibly irregular functionals of semi/nonparametric time series models. Next, we establish a surprising result that the asymptotic variances of plug-in sieve M estimators of irregular (i.e., slower than root-T estimable) functionals do not depend on temporal dependence. Nevertheless, ignoring the temporal dependence in small samples may not lead to accurate inference. We then propose an easy-to-compute and more accurate inference procedure based on a “pre-asymptotic” sieve variance …
Demand Externalities From Co-Location, Boudhayan Sen, Jiwoong Shin, K. Sudhir
Demand Externalities From Co-Location, Boudhayan Sen, Jiwoong Shin, K. Sudhir
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We illustrate an approach to measure demand externalities from co-location by estimating household level changes in grocery spending at a supermarket among households that also buy gas at a co-located gas station, relative to those who do not. Controlling for observable and unobserved selection in the use of gas station, we find significant demand externalities; on average a household that buys gas has 7.7% to 9.3% increase in spending on groceries. Accounting for differences in gross margins, the profit from the grocery spillovers is 130% to 150% the profit from gasoline sales. The spillovers are moderated by store loyalty, with …
On The Limit Equilibrium Payoff Set In Repeated And Stochastic Games, Johannes Hörner, Satoru Takahashi, Nicolas Vieille
On The Limit Equilibrium Payoff Set In Repeated And Stochastic Games, Johannes Hörner, Satoru Takahashi, Nicolas Vieille
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper provides a dual characterization of the limit set of perfect public equilibrium payoffs in stochastic games (in particular, repeated games) as the discount factor tends to one. As a first corollary, the folk theorems of Fudenberg, Levine and Maskin (1994), Kandori and Matsushima (1998) and Hörner, Sugaya, Takahashi and Vieille (2011) obtain. As a second corollary, in the context of repeated games, it follows that this limit set of payoffs is a polytope (a bounded polyhedron) when attention is restricted to equilibria in pure strategies. We provide a two-player game in which this limit set is not a …
Unpacking EugèNe Giraudet’S Library: Dance, Books, And International Relations In Fin-De-SièCle Paris, Dominique Bourassa
Unpacking EugèNe Giraudet’S Library: Dance, Books, And International Relations In Fin-De-SièCle Paris, Dominique Bourassa
Library Staff Publications
Eugène Giraudet (1861-19?) was an exceptionally prolific and influential Parisian dance teacher, choreographer, author, and bibliophile. His library catalog, published in his 1900 Traité de la danse, Tome II, Grammaire de la danse et du bon ton, is more than a simple record of the books he owned. It also serves as a wish list and a directory of prominent dance personalities. As a whole, it presents an unparalleled conspectus of dance teaching, book collecting, business, and international networks radiating from a major metropolis—the historical urban center of the dance world—in the late-nineteenth century.
Yul Annual Report; 2011-2012, Yale University Library
Yul Annual Report; 2011-2012, Yale University Library
Yale University Library Annual Reports
No abstract provided.
Computational Phylogenetics And The Internal Structure Of Pama-Nyungan, Claire Bowern, Quentin Atkinson
Computational Phylogenetics And The Internal Structure Of Pama-Nyungan, Claire Bowern, Quentin Atkinson
Linguistics Faculty Publications
No abstract provided.
Specification Sensitivity In Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing For Explosive Behavior, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, Jun Yu
Specification Sensitivity In Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing For Explosive Behavior, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, Jun Yu
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specification used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to provide some empirical guidelines for the practical implementation of right-tailed unit root tests, focussing on the sup ADF test of Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011), which implements a right-tailed ADF test repeatedly on a sequence of forward sample recursions. We analyze and compare the limit theory of the sup ADF test under different hypotheses and model specifications. The …
Lag Length Selection For Unit Root Tests In The Presence Of Nonstationary Volatility, Giuseppe Cavaliere, Peter C.B. Phillips, Stephan Smeekes, A. M. Rober Taylor
Lag Length Selection For Unit Root Tests In The Presence Of Nonstationary Volatility, Giuseppe Cavaliere, Peter C.B. Phillips, Stephan Smeekes, A. M. Rober Taylor
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A number of recently published papers have focused on the problem of testing for a unit root in the case where the driving shocks may be unconditionally heteroskedastic. These papers have, however, assumed that the lag length in the unit root test regression is a deterministic function of the sample size, rather than data-determined, the latter being standard empirical practice. In this paper we investigate the finite sample impact of unconditional heteroskedasticity on conventional data-dependent methods of lag selection in augmented Dickey-Fuller type unit root test regressions and propose new lag selection criteria which allow for the presence of heteroskedasticity …
Vars With Mixed Roots Near Unity, Peter C.B. Phillips, Ji Hyung Lee
Vars With Mixed Roots Near Unity, Peter C.B. Phillips, Ji Hyung Lee
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Limit theory is developed for nonstationary vector autoregression (VAR) with mixed roots in the vicinity of unity involving persistent and explosive components. Statistical tests for common roots are examined and model selection approaches for discriminating roots are explored. The results are useful in empirical testing for multiple manifestations of nonstationarity — in particular for distinguishing mildly explosive roots from roots that are local to unity and for testing commonality in persistence.
Testing For Multiple Bubbles, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, Jun Yu
Testing For Multiple Bubbles, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, Jun Yu
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Identifying and dating explosive bbles when there is periodically collapsing behavior over time has been a major concern in the economics literature and is of great importance for practitioners. The complexity of the nonlinear structure inherent in multiple bubble phenomena within the same sample period makes econometric analysis particularly difficult. The present paper develops new recursive procedures for practical implementation and surveillance strategies that may be employed by central banks and fiscal regulators. We show how the testing procedure and dating algorithm of Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011, PWY) are affected by multiple bubbles and may fail to be consistent. …
Efficient Auctions And Interdependent Types, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris, Satoru Takahashi
Efficient Auctions And Interdependent Types, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris, Satoru Takahashi
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We consider the efficient allocation of a single good with interdependent values in a quasi-linear environment. We present an approach to modelling interdependent preferences distinguishing between “payoff types” and “belief types” and report a characterization of when the efficient allocation can be partially Bayesian implemented on a finite type space. The characterization can be used to unify a number of sufficient conditions for efficient partial implementation in this classical auction setting. We report how a canonical language for discussing interdependent types — developed in a more general setting by Bergemann, Morris and Takahashi (2011) — applies in this setting and …
Discounted Stochastic Games With Voluntary Transfers, Sebastian Kranz
Discounted Stochastic Games With Voluntary Transfers, Sebastian Kranz
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies discounted stochastic games perfect or imperfect public monitoring and the opportunity to conduct voluntary monetary transfers. We show that for all discount factors every public perfect equilibrium payoff can be implemented with a simple class of equilibria that have a stationary structure on the equilibrium path and optimal penal codes with a stick and carrot structure. We develop algorithms that exactly compute or approximate the set of equilibrium payoffs and find simple equilibria that implement these payoffs.
Health Reform, Health Insurance, And Selection: Estimating Selection Into Health Insurance Using The Massachusetts Health Reform, Martin B. Hackmann, Jonathan T. Kolstad, Amanda E. Kowalski
Health Reform, Health Insurance, And Selection: Estimating Selection Into Health Insurance Using The Massachusetts Health Reform, Martin B. Hackmann, Jonathan T. Kolstad, Amanda E. Kowalski
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We implement an empirical test for selection into health insurance using changes in coverage induced by the introduction of mandated health insurance in Massachusetts. Our test examines changes in the cost of the newly insured relative to those who were insured prior to the reform. We find that counties with larger increases in insurance coverage over the reform period face the smallest increase in average hospital costs for the insured population, consistent with adverse selection into insurance before the reform. Additional results, incorporating cross-state variation and data on health measures, provide further evidence for adverse selection.