Survival Analysis Commons^™

A Bayesian Framework For Estimating Seismic Wave Arrival Time, Hua Zhong

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Because earthquakes have a large impact on human society, statistical methods for better studying earthquakes are required. One characteristic of earthquakes is the arrival time of seismic waves at a seismic signal sensor. Once we can estimate the earthquake arrival time accurately, the earthquake location can be triangulated, and assistance can be sent to that area correctly. This study presents a Bayesian framework to predict the arrival time of seismic waves with associated uncertainty. We use a change point framework to model the different conditions before and after the seismic wave arrives. To evaluate the performance of the model, we …