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Full-Text Articles in Statistical Methodology
A Hypothesis Test For The End Of A Common Source Outbreak, Ron Brookmeyer, Xiaojun You
A Hypothesis Test For The End Of A Common Source Outbreak, Ron Brookmeyer, Xiaojun You
Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers
The objective of this paper is to develop a hypothesis testing procedure to determine whether a common source outbreak has ended. We do not assume that the calendar date of exposure to the pathogen is known. We assume an underlying parametric model for the incubation period distribution of a 2-paramter exponential model with a guarantee time, although the parameters are not assumed to be known. The hypothesis testing procedure is based on the spacings between ordered calendar dates of disease onset of the cases. A simulation study was performed to evaluate the robustness of the methods to a lognormal model …
Effect Of Misreported Family History On Mendelian Mutation Prediction Models, Hormuzd A. Katki
Effect Of Misreported Family History On Mendelian Mutation Prediction Models, Hormuzd A. Katki
Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers
People with familial history of disease often consult with genetic counselors about their chance of carrying mutations that increase disease risk. To aid them, genetic counselors use Mendelian models that predict whether the person carries deleterious mutations based on their reported family history. Such models rely on accurate reporting of each member's diagnosis and age of diagnosis, but this information may be inaccurate. Commonly encountered errors in family history can significantly distort predictions, and thus can alter the clinical management of people undergoing counseling, screening, or genetic testing. We derive general results about the distortion in the carrier probability estimate …