Probability Commons^™

Static And Dynamic State Estimation Applications In Power Systems Protection And Control Engineering, Ibukunoluwa Olayemi Korede

Doctoral Dissertations

The developed methodologies are proposed to serve as support for control centers and fault analysis engineers. These approaches provide a dependable and effective means of pinpointing and resolving faults, which ultimately enhances power grid reliability. The algorithm uses the Least Absolute Value (LAV) method to estimate the augmented states of the PCB, enabling supervisory monitoring of the system. In addition, the application of statistical analysis based on projection statistics of the system Jacobian as a virtual sensor to detect faults on transmission lines. This approach is particularly valuable for detecting anomalies in transmission line data, such as bad data or …

Large Deviations For Self Intersection Local Times Of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Processes, Apostolos Gournaris

Doctoral Dissertations

In the area of large deviations, people concern about the asymptotic computation of small probabilities on an exponential scale. The general form of large deviations can be roughly described as: P{Yn ∈ A} ≈ exp{−bnI(A)} (n → ∞), for a random sequence {Yn}, a positive sequence bn with bn → ∞, and a coefficient I(A) ≥ 0. In applications, we often concern about the probability that the random variables take large values, that is we concern about the P{Yn ≥ λ}, where λ > 0. Here, we consider the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, study the properties of the local times and self intersection …

Dynamic Neuromechanical Sets For Locomotion, Aravind Sundararajan

Doctoral Dissertations

Most biological systems employ multiple redundant actuators, which is a complicated problem of controls and analysis. Unless assumptions about how the brain and body work together, and assumptions about how the body prioritizes tasks are applied, it is not possible to find the actuator controls. The purpose of this research is to develop computational tools for the analysis of arbitrary musculoskeletal models that employ redundant actuators. Instead of relying primarily on optimization frameworks and numerical methods or task prioritization schemes used typically in biomechanics to find a singular solution for actuator controls, tools for feasible sets analysis are instead developed …

Nonparametric Bayesian Deep Learning For Scientific Data Analysis, Devanshu Agrawal

Doctoral Dissertations

Deep learning (DL) has emerged as the leading paradigm for predictive modeling in a variety of domains, especially those involving large volumes of high-dimensional spatio-temporal data such as images and text. With the rise of big data in scientific and engineering problems, there is now considerable interest in the research and development of DL for scientific applications. The scientific domain, however, poses unique challenges for DL, including special emphasis on interpretability and robustness. In particular, a priority of the Department of Energy (DOE) is the research and development of probabilistic ML methods that are robust to overfitting and offer reliable …

Dependence Structures In Lévy-Type Markov Processes, Eddie Brendan Tu

Doctoral Dissertations

In this dissertation, we examine the positive and negative dependence of infinitely divisible distributions and Lévy-type Markov processes. Examples of infinitely divisible distributions include Poissonian distributions like compound Poisson and α-stable distributions. Examples of Lévy-type Markov processes include Lévy processes and Feller processes, which include a class of jump-diffusions, certain stochastic differential equations with Lévy noise, and subordinated Markov processes. Other examples of Lévy-type Markov processes are time-inhomogeneous Feller evolution systems (FES), which include additive processes. We will provide a tour of various forms of positive dependence, which include association, positive supermodular association (PSA), positive supermodular dependence (PSD), and positive …

Numerical Solutions Of Stochastic Differential Equations, Liguo Wang

Doctoral Dissertations

In this dissertation, we consider the problem of simulation of stochastic differential equations driven by Brownian motions or the general Levy processes. There are two types of convergence for a numerical solution of a stochastic differential equation, the strong convergence and the weak convergence. We first introduce the strong convergence of the tamed Euler-Maruyama scheme under non-globally Lipschitz conditions, which allow the polynomial growth for the drift and diffusion coefficients. Then we prove a new weak convergence theorem given that the drift and diffusion coefficients of the stochastic differential equation are only twice continuously differentiable with bounded derivatives up to …

Advanced Sequential Monte Carlo Methods And Their Applications To Sparse Sensor Network For Detection And Estimation, Kai Kang

Doctoral Dissertations

The general state space models present a flexible framework for modeling dynamic systems and therefore have vast applications in many disciplines such as engineering, economics, biology, etc. However, optimal estimation problems of non-linear non-Gaussian state space models are analytically intractable in general. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods become a very popular class of simulation-based methods for the solution of optimal estimation problems. The advantages of SMC methods in comparison with classical filtering methods such as Kalman Filter and Extended Kalman Filter are that they are able to handle non-linear non-Gaussian scenarios without relying on any local linearization techniques. In this …

Numerical Methods For Deterministic And Stochastic Phase Field Models Of Phase Transition And Related Geometric Flows, Yukun Li

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation consists of three integral parts with each part focusing on numerical approximations of several partial differential equations (PDEs). The goals of each part are to design, to analyze and to implement continuous or discontinuous Galerkin finite element methods for the underlying PDE problem.

Part One studies discontinuous Galerkin (DG) approximations of two phase field models, namely, the Allen-Cahn and Cahn-Hilliard equations, and their related curvature-driven geometric problems, namely, the mean curvature flow and the Hele-Shaw flow. We derive two discrete spectrum estimates, which play an important role in proving the sharper error estimates which only depend on a …

Numerical Approximation Of Stochastic Differential Equations Driven By Levy Motion With Infinitely Many Jumps, Ernest Jum

Doctoral Dissertations

In this dissertation, we consider the problem of simulation of stochastic differential equations driven by pure jump Levy processes with infinite jump activity. Examples include, the class of stochastic differential equations driven by stable and tempered stable Levy processes, which are suited for modeling of a wide range of heavy tail phenomena. We replace the small jump part of the driving Levy process by a suitable Brownian motion, as proposed by Asmussen and Rosinski, which results in a jump-diffusion equation. We obtain L^p [the space of measurable functions with a finite p-norm], for p greater than or equal to …

Monte Carlo Methods In Finance, Je Guk Kim

Doctoral Dissertations

Monte Carlo method has received significant consideration from the context of quantitative finance mainly due to its ease of implementation for complex problems in the field. Among topics of its application to finance, we address two topics: (1) optimal importance sampling for the Laplace transform of exponential Brownian functionals and (2) analysis on the convergence of quasi-regression method for pricing American option. In the first part of this dissertation, we present an asymptotically optimal importance sampling method for Monte Carlo simulation of the Laplace transform of exponential Brownian functionals via Large deviations principle and calculus of variations the closed form …

Asymptotic Behavior Of A Class Of Spdes, Parisa Fatheddin

Doctoral Dissertations

We establish the large and moderate deviation principles for a class of stochastic partial differential equations with a non-Lipschitz continuous coefficient. As an application we derive these principles for an important population model, Fleming-Viot Process. In addition, we establish the moderate deviation principle for another classical population model, super-Brownian motion.

Long Time Asymptotics Of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Processes In Poisson Random Media, Fei Xing

Doctoral Dissertations

The Models of Random Motions in Random Media (RMRM) have been shown to have fruitful applications in various scientific areas such as polymer physics, statistical mechanics, oceanography, etc. In this dissertation, we consider a special model of RMRM: the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process in a Poisson random medium and investigate the long time evolution of its random energy. We give complete answers to the long time asymptotics of the exponential moments of the random energy with both positive and negative coefficients, under both quenched and annealed regimes. Through these results, we find out a dramatic difference between the long time behavior of …

Automating Large-Scale Simulation Calibration To Real-World Sensor Data, Richard Everett Edwards

Doctoral Dissertations

Many key decisions and design policies are made using sophisticated computer simulations. However, these sophisticated computer simulations have several major problems. The two main issues are 1) gaps between the simulation model and the actual structure, and 2) limitations of the modeling engine's capabilities. This dissertation's goal is to address these simulation deficiencies by presenting a general automated process for tuning simulation inputs such that simulation output matches real world measured data. The automated process involves the following key components -- 1) Identify a model that accurately estimates the real world simulation calibration target from measured sensor data; 2) Identify …

Stability Of Nonlinear Filters And Branching Particle Approximations To The Filtering Problems, Zhiqiang Li

Doctoral Dissertations

Various particle filters have been proposed and their convergence to the optimal filter are obtained for finite time intervals. However, uniform convergence results have been established only for discrete time filters. We prove the uniform convergence of a branching particle filter for continuous time setup when the optimal filter itself is exponentially stable.

The short interest rate process is modeled by an asymptotically stationary diffusion process. With the counting process observations, a filtering problem is formulated and its exponential stability is derived. Base on the stability result, the uniform convergence of a branching particle filter is proved.

Moderate Deviation Of Intersection Of Ranges Of Random Walks In The Stable Case, Justin Anthony Grieves

Doctoral Dissertations

Given p independent, symmetric random walks on d-dimensional integer lattice that are the domain of attraction for a stable distribution, we calculate the moderate deviation of the intersection of ranges of the random walks in the case where the walks intersect infinitely often as time goes to infinity. That is to say, we establish a weak law convergence of intersection of ranges to intersection local time of stable processes and use this convergence as a link to establish deviation results.