Probability Commons^™

Statistical Analysis Of Momentum In Basketball, Mackenzi Stump

Honors Projects

The “hot hand” in sports has been debated for as long as sports have been around. The debate involves whether streaks and slumps in sports are true phenomena or just simply perceptions in the mind of the human viewer. This statistical analysis of momentum in basketball analyzes the distribution of time between scoring events for the BGSU Women’s Basketball team from 2011-2017. We discuss how the distribution of time between scoring events changes with normal game factors such as location of the game, game outcome, and several other factors. If scoring events during a game were always randomly distributed, or …

Making Models With Bayes, Pilar Olid

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

Bayesian statistics is an important approach to modern statistical analyses. It allows us to use our prior knowledge of the unknown parameters to construct a model for our data set. The foundation of Bayesian analysis is Bayes' Rule, which in its proportional form indicates that the posterior is proportional to the prior times the likelihood. We will demonstrate how we can apply Bayesian statistical techniques to fit a linear regression model and a hierarchical linear regression model to a data set. We will show how to apply different distributions to Bayesian analyses and how the use of a prior affects …

Statistical Modelling, Optimal Strategies And Decisions In Two-Period Economies, Jiang Wu

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Motivated by some real problems, our thesis puts forward two general two-period pricing models and explore optimal buying and selling strategies in two states of the two-period decision, when buyer/seller's decisions in the two periods are uncertain: commodity valuations may or may not be independent, may or may not follow the same distribution, be heavily or just lightly influenced by exogenous economic conditions, and so on. For both the example of buying laptops and the example of selling houses, the connections between each example and the two-envelope paradox encourage us to explore optimal strategies based on the works of McDonnell …

A Geometric Derivation Of The Irwin-Hall Distribution, James E. Marengo, Lucas Stefanic, David L. Farnsworth

Articles

The Irwin-Hall distribution is the distribution of the sum of a finite number of independent identically distributed uniform random variables on the unit interval. Many applications arise since round-off errors have a transformed Irwin-Hall distribution and the distribution supplies spline approximations to normal distributions. We review some of the distribution’s history. The present derivation is very transparent, since it is geometric and explicitly uses the inclusion-exclusion principle. In certain special cases, the derivation can be extended to linear combinations of independent uniform random variables on other intervals of finite length.The derivation adds to the literature about methodologies for finding distributions …

Burden Of Atopic Dermatitis In The United States: Analysis Of Healthcare Claims Data In The Commercial, Medicare, And Medi-Cal Databases, Sulena Shrestha, Raymond Miao, Li Wang, Jingdong Chao, Huseyin Yuce, Wenhui Wei

Publications and Research

Comparative data on the burden of atopic dermatitis (AD) in adults relative to the general population are limited. We performed a large-scale evaluation of the burden of disease among US adults with AD relative to matched non-AD controls, encompassing comorbidities, healthcare resource utilization (HCRU), and costs, using healthcare claims data. The impact of AD disease severity on these outcomes was also evaluated.

Gilmore Girls And Instagram: A Statistical Look At The Popularity Of The Television Show Through The Lens Of An Instagram Page, Brittany Simmons

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

After going on the Warner Brothers Tour in December of 2015, I created a Gilmore Girls Instagram account. This account, which started off as a way for me to create edits of the show and post my photos from the tour turned into something bigger than I ever could have imagined. In just over a year I have over 55,000 followers. I post content including revival news, merchandise, and edits of the show that have been featured in Entertainment Weekly, Bustle, E! News, People Magazine, Yahoo News, & GilmoreNews.

I created a dataset of qualitative and quantitative outcomes from my …

Inference On The Stress-Strength Model From Weibull Gamma Distribution, Mahmoud Mansour, Rashad El-Sagheer, M. A. W. Mahmoud Prof.

Basic Science Engineering

No abstract provided.

Statistical Analysis Of Markovian Queueing Models Of Limit Order Books, Yiyao Luo

Arts & Sciences Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The objective of this thesis is to investigate the suitability of some Markovian queueing models in being able to effectively describe the dynamical properties of a limit order book more specifically. We review and compare the assumptions proposed by Huang et al.[Quantitative Finance,12,547-557(2012)] and Cont et al.[SIAM Journal for Financial Mathematics,4,1- 25(2013)], and estimate the intensity parameters in both ways, based on real data of a stock on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Trough comparing by cumulative distribution functions of first-passage time to state 0, we will hsow that the estimators of Cont’s model fit our data better and we put …

Inference In Networking Systems With Designed Measurements, Chang Liu

Doctoral Dissertations

Networking systems consist of network infrastructures and the end-hosts have been essential in supporting our daily communication, delivering huge amount of content and large number of services, and providing large scale distributed computing. To monitor and optimize the performance of such networking systems, or to provide flexible functionalities for the applications running on top of them, it is important to know the internal metrics of the networking systems such as link loss rates or path delays. The internal metrics are often not directly available due to the scale and complexity of the networking systems. This motivates the techniques of inference …

The Battle Against Malaria: A Teachable Moment, Randy K. Schwartz

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

Malaria has been humanity’s worst public health problem throughout recorded history. Mathematical methods are needed to understand which factors are relevant to the disease and to develop counter-measures against it. This article and the accompanying exercises provide examples of those methods for use in lower- or upper-level courses dealing with probability, statistics, or population modeling. These can be used to illustrate such concepts as correlation, causation, conditional probability, and independence. The article explains how the apparent link between sickle cell trait and resistance to malaria was first verified in Uganda using the chi-squared probability distribution. It goes on to explain …

Quantifying The Effect Of The Shift In Major League Baseball, Christopher John Hawke Jr.

Senior Projects Spring 2017

Baseball is a very strategic and abstract game, but the baseball world is strangely obsessed with statistics. Modern mainstream statisticians often study offensive data, such as batting average or on-base percentage, in order to evaluate player performance. However, this project observes the game from the opposite perspective: the defensive side of the game. In hopes of analyzing the game from a more concrete perspective, countless mathemeticians - most famously, Bill James - have developed numerous statistical models based on real life data of Major League Baseball (MLB) players. Large numbers of metrics go into these models, but what this project …