Probability Commons^™

Risk-Based Machine Learning Approaches For Probabilistic Transient Stability, Umair Shahzad

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Power systems are getting more complex than ever and are consequently operating close to their limit of stability. Moreover, with the increasing demand of renewable wind generation, and the requirement to maintain a secure power system, the importance of transient stability cannot be overestimated. Considering its significance in power system security, it is important to propose a different approach for enhancing the transient stability, considering uncertainties. Current deterministic industry practices of transient stability assessment ignore the probabilistic nature of variables (fault type, fault location, fault clearing time, etc.). These approaches typically provide a conservative criterion and can result in expensive …

Pretrial Release And Failure-To-Appear In Mclean County, Il, Jonathan Monsma

Stevenson Center for Community and Economic Development—Student Research

Actuarial risk assessment tools increasingly have been employed in jurisdictions across the U.S. to assist courts in the decision of whether someone charged with a crime should be detained or released prior to their trial. These tools should be continually monitored and researched by independent 3^rd parties to ensure that these powerful tools are being administered properly and used in the most proficient way as to provide socially optimal results. McLean County, Illinois began using the Public Safety Assessment-Court^TM (PSA-Court or simply PSA) risk assessment tool beginning in 2016. This study culls data from the McLean County Jail …

Expert Mining And Required Disclosure, Jonah B. Gelbach

All Faculty Scholarship

No abstract provided.

Against 'Individual Risk': A Sympathetic Critique Of Risk Assessment, Matthew D. Adler

All Faculty Scholarship

"Individual risk" currently plays a major role in risk assessment and in the regulatory practices of the health and safety agencies that employ risk assessment, such as EPA, FDA, OSHA, NRC, CPSC, and others. Risk assessors use the term "population risk" to mean the number of deaths caused by some hazard. By contrast, "individual risk" is the incremental probability of death that the hazard imposes on some particular person. Regulatory decision procedures keyed to individual risk are widespread. This is true both for the regulation of toxic chemicals (the heartland of risk assessment), and for other health hazards, such as …

Estimating The Probability Of Severe Convective Storms: A Local Perspective For The Central And Northern Plains, Preston W. Leftwich Jr.

NOAA Technical Reports and Related Materials

Summary and Conclusions

A procedure to estimate probabilities of the occurrence of severe convective storms within local areas has been described. Probabilities were based on a simulated climatology and the relative frequency of severe convective events when a selected site was contained within an operational Outlook or Watch. Combined data from five local areas were used to develop a general model for local probabilities within the central and northern Plains region. Attachment of probabilities to specific products placed values within a framework familiar to both forecasters and "end-users." Application of results in an operational scenario demonstrated representative local probabilities and …