Probability Commons^™

Exchangeability And A Model Of Biological Evolution, Renee Haddad

Honors Scholar Theses

A sequence of random variables (RVs) is exchangeable if its distribution is invariant under permutations. For example, every sequence of independent and identically distributed (IID) RVs is exchangeable. The main result on exchangeable sequences of random variables is de Finetti's theorem, which identifies exchangeable sequences as conditionally IID. In this thesis, we explore exchangeability, provide an elementary proof of de Finetti's theorem, and present two applications: the classical Polya's urn model and a toy model for biological evolution.

Utility In Time Description In Priority Best-Worst Discrete Choice Models: An Empirical Evaluation Using Flynn's Data, Sasanka Adikari, Norou Diawara

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Discrete choice models (DCMs) are applied in many fields and in the statistical modelling of consumer behavior. This paper focuses on a form of choice experiment, best-worst scaling in discrete choice experiments (DCEs), and the transition probability of a choice of a consumer over time. The analysis was conducted by using simulated data (choice pairs) based on data from Flynn's (2007) 'Quality of Life Experiment'. Most of the traditional approaches assume the choice alternatives are mutually exclusive over time, which is a questionable assumption. We introduced a new copula-based model (CO-CUB) for the transition probability, which can handle the dependent …

Machine Learning Approaches For Cyberbullying Detection, Roland Fiagbe

Data Science and Data Mining

Cyberbullying refers to the act of bullying using electronic means and the internet. In recent years, this act has been identifed to be a major problem among young people and even adults. It can negatively impact one’s emotions and lead to adverse outcomes like depression, anxiety, harassment, and suicide, among others. This has led to the need to employ machine learning techniques to automatically detect cyberbullying and prevent them on various social media platforms. In this study, we want to analyze the combination of some Natural Language Processing (NLP) algorithms (such as Bag-of-Words and TFIDF) with some popular machine learning …

Mixing Measures For Trees Of Fixed Diameter, Ari Holcombe Pomerance

Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science Honors Projects

A mixing measure is the expected length of a random walk in a graph given a set of starting and stopping conditions. We determine the tree structures of order n with diameter d that minimize and maximize for a few mixing measures. We show that the maximizing tree is usually a broom graph or a double broom graph and that the minimizing tree is usually a seesaw graph or a double seesaw graph.

On Characterization Of The Exponential Distribution Via Hypoexponential Distributions, George Yanev

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

The sum of independent, but not necessary identically distributed, exponential random variables follows a hypoexponential distribution. We focus on a particular case when all but one rate parameters of the exponential variables are identical. This is known as exponentially modified Erlang distribution in molecular biology. We prove a characterization of the exponential distribution, which complements previous characterizations via hypoexponential distribution with all rates different from each other.

Controlled Branching Processes With Continuous Time, Miguel Gonzalez, Manuel Molina, Ines Del Puerto, Nikolay Yanev, George Yanev

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

A class of controlled branching processes with continuous time is introduced and some limiting distributions are obtained in the critical case. An extension of this class as regenerative controlled branching processes with continuous time is proposed and some asymptotic properties are considered.

Application Of Randomness In Finance, Jose Sanchez, Daanial Ahmad, Satyanand Singh

Publications and Research

Brownian Motion which is also considered to be a Wiener process and can be thought of as a random walk. In our project we had briefly discussed the fluctuations of financial indices and related it to Brownian Motion and the modeling of Stock prices.

Continuous-Time Controlled Branching Processes, Ines Garcia, George Yanev, Manuel Molina, Nikolay Yanev, Miguel Velasco

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Controlled branching processes with continuous time are introduced and limiting distributions are obtained in the critical case. An extension of this class as regenerative controlled branching processes with continuous time is proposed and some asymptotic properties are considered.

On The Evolution Equation For Modelling The Covid-19 Pandemic, Jonathan Blackledge

Books/Book chapters

The paper introduces and discusses the evolution equation, and, based exclusively on this equation, considers random walk models for the time series available on the daily confirmed Covid-19 cases for different countries. It is shown that a conventional random walk model is not consistent with the current global pandemic time series data, which exhibits non-ergodic properties. A self-affine random walk field model is investigated, derived from the evolutionary equation for a specified memory function which provides the non-ergodic fields evident in the available Covid-19 data. This is based on using a spectral scaling relationship of the type 1/ωα where ω …

Em Estimation For Zero- And K-Inflated Poisson Regression Model, Monika Arora, N. Rao Chaganty

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Count data with excessive zeros are ubiquitous in healthcare, medical, and scientific studies. There are numerous articles that show how to fit Poisson and other models which account for the excessive zeros. However, in many situations, besides zero, the frequency of another count k tends to be higher in the data. The zero- and k-inflated Poisson distribution model (ZkIP) is appropriate in such situations The ZkIP distribution essentially is a mixture distribution of Poisson and degenerate distributions at points zero and k. In this article, we study the fundamental properties of this mixture distribution. Using stochastic representation, we …

Exponential And Hypoexponential Distributions: Some Characterizations, George Yanev

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

The (general) hypoexponential distribution is the distribution of a sum of independent exponential random variables. We consider the particular case when the involved exponential variables have distinct rate parameters. We prove that the following converse result is true. If for some n ≥ 2, X1, X2, . . . , Xn are independent copies of a random variable X with unknown distribution F and a specific linear combination of Xj ’s has hypoexponential distribution, then F is exponential. Thus, we obtain new characterizations of the exponential distribution. As corollaries of the main results, we extend some previous characterizations established recently …

Dynamic Attribute-Level Best Worst Discrete Choice Experiments, Amanda Working, Mohammed Alqawba, Norou Diawara

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Dynamic modelling of decision maker choice behavior of best and worst in discrete choice experiments (DCEs) has numerous applications. Such models are proposed under utility function of decision maker and are used in many areas including social sciences, health economics, transportation research, and health systems research. After reviewing references on the study of such experiments, we present example in DCE with emphasis on time dependent best-worst choice and discrimination between choice attributes. Numerical examples of the dynamic DCEs are simulated, and the associated expected utilities over time of the choice models are derived using Markov decision processes. The estimates are …

Unified Methods For Feature Selection In Large-Scale Genomic Studies With Censored Survival Outcomes, Lauren Spirko-Burns, Karthik Devarajan

COBRA Preprint Series

One of the major goals in large-scale genomic studies is to identify genes with a prognostic impact on time-to-event outcomes which provide insight into the disease's process. With rapid developments in high-throughput genomic technologies in the past two decades, the scientific community is able to monitor the expression levels of tens of thousands of genes and proteins resulting in enormous data sets where the number of genomic features is far greater than the number of subjects. Methods based on univariate Cox regression are often used to select genomic features related to survival outcome; however, the Cox model assumes proportional hazards …

Educational Magic Tricks Based On Error-Detection Schemes, Ronald I. Greenberg

Computer Science: Faculty Publications and Other Works

Magic tricks based on computer science concepts help grab student attention and can motivate them to delve more deeply. Error detection ideas long used by computer scientists provide a rich basis for working magic; probably the most well known trick of this type is one included in the CS Unplugged activities. This paper shows that much more powerful variations of the trick can be performed, some in an unplugged environment and some with computer assistance. Some of the tricks also show off additional concepts in computer science and discrete mathematics.

Quantifying Similarity In Reliability Surfaces Using The Probability Of Agreement, Nathaniel Stevens, C. M. Anderson-Cook

Mathematics

When separate populations exhibit similar reliability as a function of multiple explanatory variables, combining them into a single population is tempting. This can simplify future predictions and reduce uncertainty associated with estimation. However, combining these populations may introduce bias if the underlying relationships are in fact different. The probability of agreement formally and intuitively quantifies the similarity of estimated reliability surfaces across a two-factor input space. An example from the reliability literature demonstrates the utility of the approach when deciding whether to combine two populations or to keep them as distinct. New graphical summaries provide strategies for visualizing the results.

Pcr5 And Neutrosophic Probability In Target Identification, Florentin Smarandache, Nassim Abbas, Youcef Chibani, Bilal Hadjadji, Zayen Azzouz Omar

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

In this paper we use PCR5 in order to fusion the information of two sources providing subjective probabilities of an event A to occur in the following form: chance that A occurs, indeterminate chance of occurrence of A, chance that A does not occur.

Boundary Problems For One And Two Dimensional Random Walks, Miky Wright

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

This thesis provides a study of various boundary problems for one and two dimensional random walks. We first consider a one-dimensional random walk that starts at integer-valued height k > 0, with a lower boundary being the x-axis, and on each step moving downward with probability q being greater than or equal to the probability of going upward p. We derive the variance and the standard deviation of the number of steps T needed for the height to reach 0 from k, by first deriving the moment generating function of T. We then study two types of two-dimensional random walks with …

Random Search Models Of Foraging Behavior: Theory, Simulation, And Observation., Ben C. Nolting

Department of Mathematics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Many organisms, from bacteria to primates, use stochastic movement patterns to find food. These movement patterns, known as search strategies, have recently be- come a focus of ecologists interested in identifying universal properties of optimal foraging behavior. In this dissertation, I describe three contributions to this field. First, I propose a way to extend Charnov's Marginal Value Theorem to the spatially explicit framework of stochastic search strategies. Next, I describe simulations that compare the efficiencies of sensory and memory-based composite search strategies, which involve switching between different behavioral modes. Finally, I explain a new behavioral analysis protocol for identifying the …

The Torsion Angle Of Random Walks, Mu He

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

In this thesis, we study the expected mean of the torsion angle of an n-step
equilateral random walk in 3D. We consider the random walk is generated within a confining sphere or without a confining sphere: given three consecutive vectors ^→e₁ , ^→e₂ , and ^→e₃ of the random walk then the vectors ^→e₁ and ^→e₂ define a plane and the vectors ^→e₂ and ^→e₃ define a second plane. The angle between the two planes is called the torsion angle of the three vectors. Algorithms are …

Simplicial Complexes Obtained From Qualitative Probability Orders, Paul H. Edelman, Tatiana Gvozdeva, Arkadii Slinko

Vanderbilt Law School Faculty Publications

The goal of this paper is to introduce a new class of simplicial complexes that naturally generalize the threshold complexes. These will be derived from qualitative probability orders on subsets of a finite set that generalize subset orders induced by probability measures. We show that this new class strictly contains the threshold complexes and is strictly contained in the shifted complexes. We conjecture that this class of complexes is exactly the set of strongly acyclic complexes, a class that has previously appeared in the context of cooperative games. Beyond the results themselves, this new class of complexes allows us to …

Modeling And Mathematical Analysis Of Plant Models In Ecology, Eric A. Eager

Department of Mathematics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Population dynamics tries to explain in a simple mechanistic way the variations of the size and structure of biological populations. In this dissertation we use mathematical modeling and analysis to study the various aspects of the dynamics of plant populations and their seed banks.

In Chapter 2 we investigate the impact of structural model uncertainty by considering different nonlinear recruitment functions in an integral projection model for Cirsium canescens. We show that, while having identical equilibrium populations, these two models can elicit drastically different transient dynamics. We then derive a formula for the sensitivity of the equilibrium population to …

Determining The Success Of Ncaa Basketball Teams Through Team Characteristics, Raymond Witkos

Honors Projects in Mathematics

Every year much of the nation becomes engulfed in the NCAA basketball postseason tournament more affectionately known as “March Madness.” The tournament has received the name because of the ability for any team to win a single game and advance to the next round. The purpose of this study is to determine whether concrete statistical measures can be used to predict the final outcome of the tournament. The data collected in the study include 13 independent variables ranging from the 2003-2004 season up until the current 2009-2010 season. Different tests were run in an attempt to achieve the most accurate …

The Effects Of The Use Of Technology In Mathematics Instruction On Student Achievement, Ron Y. Myers

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of the use of technology on students’ mathematics achievement, particularly the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT) mathematics results. Eleven schools within the Miami-Dade County Public School System participated in a pilot program on the use of Geometers Sketchpad (GSP). Three of these schools were randomly selected for this study. Each school sent a teacher to a summer in-service training program on how to use GSP to teach geometry. In each school, the GSP class and a traditional geometry class taught by the same teacher were the study participants. Students’ mathematics …

The Weak Euler Scheme For Stochastic Delay Equations, Evelyn Buckwar, Rachel Kuske, Salah-Eldin A. Mohammed, Tony Shardlow

Articles and Preprints

We study weak convergence of an Euler scheme for non-linear stochastic delay differential equations (SDDEs) driven by multidimensional Brownian motion. The Euler scheme has weak order of convergence 1, as in the case of stochastic ordinary differential equations (SODEs) (i.e., without delay). The result holds for SDDEs with multiple finite fixed delays in the drift and diffusion terms. Although the set-up is non-anticipating, our approach uses the Malliavin calculus and the anticipating stochastic analysis techniques of Nualart and Pardoux.

Quasigeometric Distributions And Extra Inning Baseball Games, Darren B. Glass, Philip J. Lowry

Math Faculty Publications

Each July, the eyes of baseball fans across the country turn to Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game, gathering the best and most popular players from baseball’s two leagues to play against each other in a single game. In most sports, the All-Star Game is an exhibition played purely for entertainment. Since 2003, the baseball All-Star Game has actually ‘counted’, because the winning league gets home field advantage in the World Series. Just one year before this rule went into effect, there was no winner in the All-Star Game, as both teams ran out of pitchers in the 11th inning and …

Octahedral Dice, Todd Estroff, Jeremiah Farrell

Scholarship and Professional Work - LAS

All five Platonic solids have been used as random number generators in games involving chance with the cube being the most popular. Martin Gardenr, in his article on dice (MG 1977) remarks: "Why cubical?... It is the easiest to make, its six sides accomodate a set of numbers neither too large nor too small, and it rolls easily enough but not too easily."

Gardner adds that the octahedron has been the next most popular as a randomizer. We offer here several problems and games using octahedral dice. The first two are extensions from Gardner's article. All answers will be given …

The Substitution Theorem For Semilinear Stochastic Partial Differential Equations, Salah-Eldin A. Mohammed, Tusheng Zhang

Articles and Preprints

In this article we establish a substitution theorem for semilinear stochastic evolution equations (see's) depending on the initial condition as an infinite-dimensional parameter. Due to the infinitedimensionality of the initial conditions and of the stochastic dynamics, existing finite-dimensional results do not apply. The substitution theorem is proved using Malliavin calculus techniques together with new estimates on the underlying stochastic semiflow. Applications of the theorem include dynamic characterizations of solutions of stochastic partial differential equations (spde's) with anticipating initial conditions and non-ergodic stationary solutions. In particular, our result gives a new existence theorem for solutions of semilinear Stratonovich spde's with anticipating …

Green And Poisson Functions With Wentzell Boundary Conditions, José-Luis Menaldi, Luciano Tubaro

Mathematics Faculty Research Publications

We discuss the construction and estimates of the Green and Poisson functions associated with a parabolic second order integro-di erential operator with Wentzell boundary conditions.

The Stable Manifold Theorem For Semilinear Stochastic Evolution Equations And Stochastic Partial Differential Equations, Salah-Eldin A. Mohammed, Tusheng Zhang, Huaizhong Zhao

Articles and Preprints

The main objective of this paper is to characterize the pathwise local structure of solutions of semilinear stochastic evolution equations (see’s) and stochastic partial differential equations (spde’s) near stationary solutions. Such characterization is realized through the long-term behavior of the solution field near stationary points. The analysis falls in two parts 1, 2.

In Part 1, we prove general existence and compactness theorems for C^k-cocycles of semilinear see’s and spde’s. Our results cover a large class of semilinear see’s as well as certain semilinear spde’s with Lipschitz and non-Lipschitz terms such as stochastic reaction diffusion equations and the …

Remarks On Risk-Sensitive Control Problems, José Luis Menaldi, Maurice Robin

Mathematics Faculty Research Publications

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the asymptotic behavior of the discounted risk-sensitive control problem for periodic diffusion processes when the discount factor α goes to zero. If u_α(θ, x) denotes the optimal cost function, being the risk factor, then it is shown that lim_α→0αu_α(θ, x) = ξ(θ) where ξ(θ) is the average on ]0, θ[ of the optimal cost of the (usual) in nite horizon risk-sensitive control problem.