Other Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Season-Ahead Forecasting Of Water Storage And Irrigation Requirements – An Application To The Southwest Monsoon In India, Arun Ravindranath, Naresh Devineni, Upmanu Lall, Paulina Concha Larrauri

Publications and Research

Water risk management is a ubiquitous challenge faced by stakeholders in the water or agricultural sector. We present a methodological framework for forecasting water storage requirements and present an application of this methodology to risk assessment in India. The application focused on forecasting crop water stress for potatoes grown during the monsoon season in the Satara district of Maharashtra. Pre-season large-scale climate predictors used to forecast water stress were selected based on an exhaustive search method that evaluates for highest ranked probability skill score and lowest root-mean-squared error in a leave-one-out cross-validation mode. Adaptive forecasts were made in the years …

Standard And Anomalous Wave Transport Inside Random Media, Xujun Ma

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This thesis is a study of wave transport inside random media using random matrix theory. Anderson localization plays a central role in wave transport in random media. As a consequence of destructive interference in multiple scattering, the wave function decays exponentially inside random systems. Anderson localization is a wave effect that applies to both classical waves and quantum waves. Random matrix theory has been successfully applied to study the statistical properties of transport and localization of waves. Particularly, the solution of the Dorokhov-Mello-Pereyra-Kumar (DMPK) equation gives the distribution of transmission.

For wave transport in standard one dimensional random systems in …

Predicting The Next Us President By Simulating The Electoral College, Boyan Kostadinov

Publications and Research

We develop a simulation model for predicting the outcome of the US Presidential election based on simulating the distribution of the Electoral College. The simulation model has two parts: (a) estimating the probabilities for a given candidate to win each state and DC, based on state polls, and (b) estimating the probability that a given candidate will win at least 270 electoral votes, and thus win the White House. All simulations are coded using the high-level, open-source programming language R. One of the goals of this paper is to promote computational thinking in any STEM field by illustrating how probabilistic …