Applied Statistics Commons^™

Local Or Import? A Compositional Analysis Of Aztec Ritual Ceramics In The Tuxtlas Frontier, Veracruz, Mexico, Matthew T. Meyer

Murray State Theses and Dissertations

At the time of Spanish Contact in the early 16th Century the western Tuxtlas region formed part of the Aztec imperial frontier in the southern Gulf lowlands. The most apparent material manifestation of this imperial connection was Aztec-style Texcoco-Molded Censers, recovered primarily from sites that served local centralizing functions. While rare, these symbols may provide valuable information on the dynamics of frontier politics and the relations between this region and the distant core to which they were sending tax payments. Initial consideration of this adopted imperial style implies political linkages, but the mechanisms of introduction, knowledge transmission, imperial versus local …

The Impact Of Subjective Risk Analysis On Real Estate Prices In The Nisqually Region Following The 2001 Nisqually Earthquake, Ryan Espedal

All Master's Theses

Earthquakes are an environmental hazard that pose great risks to communities almost every day. With earthquakes, the main cause of concern is physical destruction of property, however, there are also psychological effects that are researched and discussed much less. In 2001, the Nisqually area of western Washington experienced a substantial earthquake that produced minimal physical damage but caused a significant decrease in real estate prices. Studying single-family homes from 1986-2012, this research utilizes hedonic property models to measure the change in consumer’s subjective risk calculations with reference to real estate purchases after the Nisqually earthquake, measure the relationship between earthquake …

Slices Of The Big Apple: A Visual Explanation And Analysis Of The New York City Budget, Joanne Ramadani

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

As a component of government, budgets are fundamental not only to improving the quality of a shared society, but also to understanding what our government officials consider to be their priorities. However, most budgets can be difficult to understand, using terms that are not familiar to people who have not studied finance or economics. To that end, Slices of the Big Apple is an interactive, centralized narrative website that uses visualizations at its core in order to: 1) facilitate a holistic understanding of the New York City government budget for NYC residents; and 2) conduct a five-year analysis of Community …

Continuous And Discrete Models For Optimal Harvesting In Fisheries, Nagham Abbas Al Qubbanchee

Masters Theses

"This work focuses on the logistic growth model, where the Gordon-Schaefer model is considered in continuous time. We view the Gordon-Schaefer model as a bioeconomic equation involved in the fishing business, considering biological rates, carrying capacity, and total marginal costs and revenues. In [25], the authors illustrate the analytical solution of the Schaefer model using the integration by parts method and two theorems. The theorems have many assumptions with many different strategies. Due to the nature of the problem, the optimal control system involves many equations and functions, such as the second root of the equation. We concentrate on Theorem …

On The Estimation Of Heston-Nandi Garch Using Returns And/Or Options: A Simulation-Based Approach, Xize Ye

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

In this thesis, the Heston-Nandi GARCH(1,1) (henceforth, HN-GARCH) option pricing model is fitted via 4 maximum likelihood-based estimation and calibration approaches using simulated returns and/or options. The purpose is to examine the benefits of the joint estimation using both returns and options over the fundamental returns-only estimation on GARCH models. From our empirical studies, with the additional option sample, we can improve the efficiency of the estimates for HN-GARCH parameters. Nonetheless, the improvements for the risk premium factor, both from empirical standard errors, and sample RMSEs, are insignificant. In addition, option prices are simulated with a pre-defined noise structure and …

Neither “Post-War” Nor Post-Pregnancy Paranoia: How America’S War On Drugs Continues To Perpetuate Disparate Incarceration Outcomes For Pregnant, Substance-Involved Offenders, Becca S. Zimmerman

Pitzer Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the unique interactions between pregnancy, substance involvement, and race as they relate to the War on Drugs and the hyper-incarceration of women. Using ordinary least square regression analyses and data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ 2016 Survey of Prison Inmates, I examine if (and how) pregnancy status, drug use, race, and their interactions influence two length of incarceration outcomes: sentence length and amount of time spent in jail between arrest and imprisonment. The results collectively indicate that pregnancy decreases length of incarceration outcomes for those offenders who are not substance-involved but not evenhandedly -- benefitting white …

Information Prioritization: A Comparison Between Utility Maximizers And Probability Matchers, Yusuf Ismaeel

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the differences between probability matchers and utility maximizers in their preferences for information sources in a lab environment. In this paper, we consider the best source of information to be the most connected one. We conducted several linear probability model type regressions along with logit regressions. Furthermore, we also attempted to control and fix any potential misclassifications in classifying the cognitive strategy by using instrumental variables. The results show that utility maximizers will almost always choose the most informed node. Probability matchers, on the other hand, do not exhibit such a behavior as the probability matching strategy …

Three Essays On Health Economics And Policy Evaluation, Shishir Shakya

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports

This dissertation consists of three essays on the U.S. Health care policy. Each paragraph below refers to the three abstracts for the three chapters in this dissertation, respectively. I provide quantitative evidence on how much Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs (PDMPs) affects the retail opioid prescribing behaviors. Using the American Community Survey (ACS), I retrieve county-level high dimensional panel data set from 2010 to 2017. I employ three separate identification strategies: difference-in-difference, double selection post-LASSO, and spatial difference-in-difference. I compare how the retail opioid prescribing behaviors of counties, that are mandatory for prescribers to check the PDMP before prescribing controlled substances …

Garch Modeling Of Value At Risk And Expected Shortfall Using Bayesian Model Averaging, Ismail Kheir

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis conducts Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation using GARCH modeling and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). BMA considers multiple models weighted by some information criterion. Through BMA, this thesis finds that VaR and ES estimates can be improved through enhanced modeling of the data generation process.

The Long-Run Effects Of Tropical Cyclones On Infant Mortality, Isabel Miranda

Master's Theses

In the United States alone, each tropical cyclone causes an average of $14.6 billion worth of damages. In addition to the destruction of physical infrastructure, natural disasters also negatively impact human capital formation. These losses are often more difficult to observe, and therefore, are over looked when quantifying the true costs of natural disasters. One particular effect is an increase in infant mortality rates, an important indicator of a country’s general socioeconomic level. This paper utilizes a model created by Anttila-Hughes and Hsiang, that takes advantage of annual variation in tropical cyclones using annual spatial average maximum wind speeds and …

On Cluster Robust Models, José Bayoán Santiago Calderón

CGU Theses & Dissertations

Cluster robust models are a kind of statistical models that attempt to estimate parameters considering potential heterogeneity in treatment effects. Absent heterogeneity in treatment effects, the partial and average treatment effect are the same. When heterogeneity in treatment effects occurs, the average treatment effect is a function of the various partial treatment effects and the composition of the population of interest. The first chapter explores the performance of common estimators as a function of the presence of heterogeneity in treatment effects and other characteristics that may influence their performance for estimating average treatment effects. The second chapter examines various approaches …

Essays In Financial Economics: Announcement Effects In Fixed Income Markets, James J. Forest

Doctoral Dissertations

ABSTRACT ESSAYS IN FINANCIAL ECONOMICS: ANNOUNCEMENT EFFECTS IN FIXED INCOME MARKETS PHD IN FINANCE MAY 2018 JAMES J FOREST B.A., FRAMINGHAM STATE UNIVERSITY M.S., NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY Ph.D., UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS – AMHERST Directed by: Professor Hossein B. Kazemi This dissertation demonstrates the use of empirical techniques for dealing with modeling issues that arise when analyzing announcement effects in fixed income markets. It describes empirical challenges in achieving unbiased and efficient parameter estimates and shows the importance of modelling a wide range of macroeconomic announcement effects to avoid omitted variable bias. Employing techniques common in Macroeconomics, financial market researchers are better …

Statistical Modelling, Optimal Strategies And Decisions In Two-Period Economies, Jiang Wu

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Motivated by some real problems, our thesis puts forward two general two-period pricing models and explore optimal buying and selling strategies in two states of the two-period decision, when buyer/seller's decisions in the two periods are uncertain: commodity valuations may or may not be independent, may or may not follow the same distribution, be heavily or just lightly influenced by exogenous economic conditions, and so on. For both the example of buying laptops and the example of selling houses, the connections between each example and the two-envelope paradox encourage us to explore optimal strategies based on the works of McDonnell …

A Cross-Sectional Exploration Of Household Financial Reactions And Homebuyer Awareness Of Registered Sex Offenders In A Rural, Suburban, And Urban County., John Charles Navarro

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

As stigmatized persons, registered sex offenders betoken instability in communities. Depressed home sale values are associated with the presence of registered sex offenders even though the public is largely unaware of the presence of registered sex offenders. Using a spatial multilevel approach, the current study examines the role registered sex offenders influence sale values of homes sold in 2015 for three U.S. counties (rural, suburban, and urban) located in Illinois and Kentucky within the social disorganization framework. Homebuyers were surveyed to examine whether awareness of local registered sex offenders and the homebuyer’s community type operate as moderators between home selling …

The Influence Of The Electric Supply Industry On Economic Growth In Less Developed Countries, Edward Richard Bee

Dissertations

This study measures the impact that electrical outages have on manufacturing production in 135 less developed countries using stochastic frontier analysis and data from World Bank’s Investment Climate surveys. Outages of electricity, for firms with and without backup power sources, are the most frequently cited constraint on manufacturing growth in these surveys.

Outages are shown to reduce output below the production frontier by almost five percent in Africa and by a lower percentage in South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Middle East and North Africa. Production response to outages is quadratic in form. Outages also increase labor cost, reduce exports …

Spread Trading In Corn Futures Market, Ryan D. Napier

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The non-linear relationship between old crop – new crop year spreads in corn futures market and stock-to-use (S-U) ratios published by the United States Department of Agriculture is analyzed. Using a non-linear logarithmic smooth transition regression (LSTR) model, we capture asymmetric market behaviors in high and low S-U regimes. Capturing this relationship and understanding the non-linear aspects of the relationship is of interest of grain merchandizers and speculators in the market. A spread trading strategy is simulated for the sample period, January 1985 through April 2015, to determine if the non-linear relationship is a profitable arbitrage opportunity in the market.

Characteristics Of Stem Success: A Survival Analysis Model Of Factors Influencing Time To Graduation Among Undergraduate Stem Majors, Riley K. Acton

Business and Economics Honors Papers

Producing more graduates in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM), as well as ensuring students complete college in a timely manner are both areas of national public policy interest. In order to improve these two outcomes, it is imperative to understand what factors lead undergraduate students to persist in, and ultimately graduate with STEM degrees. This paper uses data from the Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study, provided by The National Center of Education Statistics, to model the time to baccalaureate degree among STEM majors using a Cox proportional hazard model.

Applications Of Monte Carlo Methods In Statistical Inference Using Regression Analysis, Ji Young Huh

CMC Senior Theses

This paper studies the use of Monte Carlo simulation techniques in the field of econometrics, specifically statistical inference. First, I examine several estimators by deriving properties explicitly and generate their distributions through simulations. Here, simulations are used to illustrate and support the analytical results. Then, I look at test statistics where derivations are costly because of the sensitivity of their critical values to the data generating processes. Simulations here establish significance and necessity for drawing statistical inference. Overall, the paper examines when and how simulations are needed in studying econometric theories.

Musical Missteps: The Severity Of The Sophomore Slump In The Music Industry, Shane M. Zackery

Scripps Senior Theses

This study looks at alternative models of follow-up album success in order to determine if there is a relationship between the decrease in Metascore ratings (assigned by Metacritic.com) between the first and second album for a musician or band and the 1) music genre or 2) the number of years between the first and second album release. The results support the dominant thought, which suggests that neither belonging to a certain genre of music nor waiting more or less time to drop the second album makes an artist more susceptible to the Sophomore Slump. This finding is important because it …

State Level Earned Income Tax Credit’S Effects On Race And Age: An Effective Poverty Reduction Policy, Anthony J. Barone

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I analyze the effectiveness of state level Earned Income Tax Credit programs on improving of poverty levels. I conducted this analysis for the years 1991 through 2011 using a panel data model with fixed effects. The main independent variables of interest were the state and federal EITC rates, minimum wage, gross state product, population, and unemployment all by state. I determined increases to the state EITC rates provided only a slight decrease to both the overall white below-poverty population and the corresponding white childhood population under 18, while both the overall and the under-18 black population for …

Nfl Betting Market: Using Adjusted Statistics To Test Market Efficiency And Build A Betting Model, James P. Donnelly

CMC Senior Theses

The use of statistical analysis has been prevalent in the sports gambling industry for years. More recently, we have seen the emergence of "adjusted statistics", a more sophisticated way to examine each play and each result (further explanation below). And while adjusted statistics have become commonplace for professional and recreational bettors alike, little research has been done to justify their use. In this paper the effectiveness of this data is tested on the most heavily wagered sport in the world – the National Football League (NFL). The results are studied with two central questions in mind: Does the market account …

Analysis Of Bank Failure And Size Of Assets, Guancun Zhong

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The financial health of the banking industry is an important prerequisite for economic stability and growth. Bank failures in the United States have run in cycles largely associated with the collapse of economic bubbles. The number of bank failures has increased dramatically over the last thirty years (Halling and Hayden, 2007). In this thesis, we try to address the following two questions: 1) What is the relationship, if any, between a bank's asset size and its likelihood of failures? 2) How can we use statistical tools to predict the numbers of bank failures in the future? Various modeling techniques are …

Analysis Of Discrete Choice Probit Models With Structured Correlation Matrices, Bhaskara Ravi

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

Discrete choice models are very popular in Economics and the conditional logit model is the most widely used model to analyze consumer choice behavior, which was introduced in a seminal paper by McFadden (1974). This model is based on the assumption that the unobserved factors, which determine the consumer choices, are independent and follow a Gumbel distribution, widely known as the Independence of irrelevant Alternatives (IIA) assumption. Alternate models that relax IIA assumption are the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models, which allow dependency between unobserved factors. However, GEV models do not incorporate all dependency patterns, other choice behaviors such as …

The Truncated Cauchy Distribution: Estimation Of Parameters And Application To Stock Returns, Paul G. Staneski

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

The problem addressed in this dissertation is the existence and estimation of the parameters of a truncated Cauchy distribution. It is known that when a number of distributions with infinite support are truncated to a finite interval that the maximum likelihood estimator of the scale parameter fails to exist with positive probability. In particular, necessary and sufficient conditions which give rise to instances of non-existence have been found for the exponential (Deemer and Votaw (1955)), gamma (Broeder (1955), Hegde and Dahiya (1989)), Weibull (Mittal and Dahiya (1989)) and normal distribution (Barndorff-Nielsen (1978), Mittal and Dahiya (1987), Hegde and Dahiya (1989)). …