Applied Statistics Commons^™

Econometric Modeling Of Regional Electricity Spot Prices In The Australian Market, Michael S. Smith, Thomas S. Shively

Michael Stanley Smith

Embアルゴリズムの新たな応用による多重比率補定(高橋将宜), Masayoshi Takahashi

Masayoshi Takahashi

No abstract provided.

欠測値補定の診断手法としての多重代入法(高橋将宜), Masayoshi Takahashi

Masayoshi Takahashi

No abstract provided.

Asimmetria Del Rischio Sistematico Dei Titolo Immobiliari Americani: Nuove Evidenze Econometriche, Paola De Santis, Carlo Drago

Carlo Drago

In questo lavoro riscontriamo un aumento del rischio sistematico dei titoli del mercato immobiliare americano nell’anno 2007 seguito da un ritorno ai valori iniziali nell’anno 2009 e si evidenzia la possibile presenza di break strutturali. Per valutare il suddetto rischio sistematico è stato scelto il modello a tre fattori di Fama e French ed è stata studiata la relazione tra l’extra rendimento dell’indice REIT, utilizzato come proxy dell’andamento dei titoli immobiliari americani, e l’extra rendimento dell’indice S&P500 rappresentativo del rendimento del portafoglio di mercato. I risultati confermano la presenza di un “Asymmetric REIT Beta Puzzle” coerentemente con alcuni precedenti studi …

From Amazon To Apple: Modeling Online Retail Sales, Purchase Incidence And Visit Behavior, Anastasios Panagiotelis, Michael S. Smith, Peter Danaher

Michael Stanley Smith

In this study we propose a multivariate stochastic model for website visit duration, page views, purchase incidence and the sale amount for online retailers. The model is constructed by composition from carefully selected distributions, and involves copula components. It allows for the strong nonlinear relationships between the sales and visit variables to be explored in detail, and can be used to construct sales predictions. The model is readily estimated using maximum likelihood, making it an attractive choice in practice given the large sample sizes that are commonplace in online retail studies. We examine a number of top-ranked U.S. online retailers, …

The Cobden-Chevalier Effect: Evaluating The Causal Effect Of The Most Favoured Nation Clause In Presence Of Network Interdependence, Luca De Benedictis, Silvia Nenci

Luca De Benedictis

Asymptotic Behavior Of A T Test Robust To Cluster Heterogeneity, Douglas G. Steigerwald

Douglas G. Steigerwald

We study the behavior of a cluster-robust t statistic and make two principle contributions. First, we relax the restriction of previous asymptotic theory that clusters have identical size, and establish that the cluster-robust t statistic continues to have a Gaussian asymptotic null distribution. Second, we determine how variation in cluster sizes, together with other sources of cluster heterogeneity, affect the behavior of the test statistic. To do so, we determine the sample specific measure of cluster heterogeneity that governs this behavior and show that the measure depends on how three quantities vary over clusters: cluster size, the cluster specific error …

Time Series, Unit Roots, And Cointegration: An Introduction, Lonnie K. Stevans

Lonnie K. Stevans

The econometric literature on unit roots took off after the publication of the paper by Nelson and Plosser (1982) that argued that most macroeconomic series have unit roots and that this is important for the analysis of macroeconomic policy. Yule (1926) suggested that regressions based on trending time series data can be spurious. This problem of spurious correlation was further pursued by Granger and Newbold (1974) and this also led to the development of the concept of cointegration (lack of cointegration implies spurious regression). The pathbreaking paper by Granger (1981), first presented at a conference at the University of Florida …

Obtaining Critical Values For Test Of Markov Regime Switching, Douglas G. Steigerwald, Valerie Bostwick

Douglas G. Steigerwald

For Markov regime-switching models, testing for the possible presence of more than one regime requires the use of a non-standard test statistic. Carter and Steigerwald (forthcoming, Journal of Econometric Methods) derive in detail the analytic steps needed to implement the test ofMarkov regime-switching proposed by Cho and White (2007, Econometrica). We summarize the implementation steps and address the computational issues that arise. A new command to compute regime-switching critical values, rscv, is introduced and presented in the context of empirical research.

Regional Specialization: Measurement & Application, Zheng Lu

Zheng Lu (Chinese: 路征)

Various measure methods for regional specialization and evolution of China's regional specialization are introduced in this presentation.

Testing For Regime Swtiching: A Comment, Douglas Steigerwald, Andrew Carter

Douglas G. Steigerwald

An autoregressive model with Markov-regime switching is analyzed that reflects on the properties of the quasi-likelihood ratio test developed by Cho and White (2007). For such a model, we show that consistency of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator for the population parameter values, on which consistency of the test is based, does not hold. We describe a condition that ensures consistency of the estimator and discuss the consistency of the test in the absence of consistency of the estimator.

Cv, Lorán Chollete

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

International Diversification: An Extreme Value Approach, Lorán Chollete, Victor De La Peña, Ching-Chih Lu

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Accurately Sized Test Statistics With Misspecified Conditional Homoskedasticity, Douglas Steigerwald, Jack Erb

Douglas G. Steigerwald

We study the finite-sample performance of test statistics in linear regression models where the error dependence is of unknown form. With an unknown dependence structure there is traditionally a trade-off between the maximum lag over which the correlation is estimated (the bandwidth) and the amount of heterogeneity in the process. When allowing for heterogeneity, through conditional heteroskedasticity, the correlation at far lags is generally omitted and the resultant inflation of the empirical size of test statistics has long been recognized. To allow for correlation at far lags we study test statistics constructed under the possibly misspecified assumption of conditional homoskedasticity. …

The Underground Economy Of Fake Antivirus Software, Douglas Steigerwald, Brett Stone-Gross, Ryan Abman, Richard Kemmerer, Christopher Kruegel, Giovanni Vigna

Douglas G. Steigerwald

Fake antivirus (AV) programs have been utilized to defraud millions of computer users into paying as much as one hundred dollars for a phony software license. As a result, fake AV software has evolved into one of the most lucrative criminal operations on the Internet. In this paper, we examine the operations of three large-scale fake AV businesses, lasting from three months to more than two years. More precisely, we present the results of our analysis on a trove of data obtained from several backend servers that the cybercriminals used to drive their scam operations. Our investigations reveal that these …

Men In Black: The Impact Of New Contracts On Football Referees’ Performances, Babatunde Buraimo, Alex Bryson, Rob Simmons

Dr Babatunde Buraimo

No abstract provided.

The 1905 Einstein Equation In A General Mathematical Analysis Model Of Quasars, Byron E. Bell

Byron E. Bell

International Diversification: A Copula Approach, Lorán Chollete, Victor De La Pena, Ching-Chih Lu

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Participation And Engagement In Sport: A Double Hurdle Approach For The United Kingdom, Babatunde Buraimo, Brad Humphreys, Rob Simmons

Dr Babatunde Buraimo

This paper uses pooled cross-section data from four waves of the United Kingdom’s Taking Part Survey, 2005 to 2009, in order to investigate determinants of probability of participation and levels of engagement in sports. The two rival modelling approaches considered here are the double-hurdle approach and the Heckman sample selection model. The Heckman model proves to be deficient in several key respects. The double-hurdle approach offers more reliable estimates than the Heckman sample selection model, at least for this particular survey. The distinction is more than just statistical nuance as there are substantive differences in qualitative results from the two …

The 1905 Einstein Equation In A General Mathematical Analysis Model Of Quasars, Byron E. Bell

Byron E. Bell

No abstract provided.

Financial Distress And Idiosyncratic Volatility: An Empirical Investigation, Lorán Chollete, Jing Chen, Rina Ray

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Financial Implications Of Extreme And Rare Events, Lorán Chollete, Dwight Jaffee

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Dependence Of Macro Variables In The Us Economy, Lorán Chollete, Cathy Ning

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Modeling International Financial Returns With A Multivariate Regime-Switching Copula, Lorán Chollete, Andreas Heinen, Alfonso Valdesogo

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Economic Implications Of Copulas And Extremes, Lorán Chollete

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Gone In 60 Seconds: The Absorption Of News In A High-Frequency Betting Market, Babatunde Buraimo, David Peel, Rob Simmons

Dr Babatunde Buraimo

This paper tests for efficiency in a betting market that offers high-frequency data, the Betfair betting exchange for wagering on outcomes of English Premier League soccer matches. We find clear evidence of rapid adjustment of prices to large disturbances (news). Full adjustment takes place within a one minute interval after the news. This suggests that this particular wagering market is not just efficient at pre-match prices but is also efficient in the face of events within games.

Adaptive Estimation, Douglas G. Steigerwald

Douglas G. Steigerwald

No abstract provided.

The Risk Components Of Liquidity, Lorán Chollete, Randi Naes, Johannes Skjeltorp

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

A Mathematical Regression Of The U.S. Gross Private Domestic Investment 1959-2001, Byron E. Bell

Byron E. Bell

SUMMARY OF PROJECT What did I do? A study of the role the U.S. stock markets and money markets have possibly played in the Gross Private Domestic Investment (GPDI) of the United States from the year 1959 to the year 2001 and I created a Multiple Linear Regression Model (MLRM).

Investigating Omitted Variable Bias In Regression Parameter Estimation: A Genetic Algorithm Approach, Lonnie K. Stevans, David N. Sessions

Lonnie K. Stevans

Bias in regression estimates resulting from the omission of a correlated relevant variable is a well known phenomenon. In this study, we apply a genetic algorithm to estimate the missing variable and, using that estimated variable, demonstrate that significant bias in regression estimates can be substantially corrected with relatively high confidence in effective models. Our interest is restricted to the case of a missing binary indicator variable and the analytical properties of bias and MSE dominance of the resulting dependent error generated vector process. These findings are compared to prior results for the independent error proxy process. Simulations are run …