Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Development Of A Metapgs For Accurate Prediction Of Osteoporotic Fracture, Xiangxue Xiao

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Introduction: Early identification of individuals at high-risk for osteoporotic fractures who may benefit from preventive intervention is essential. However, the predictive accuracy of the currently used fracture risk assessment tool remains suboptimal. The first aim of this research is to construct genome-wide polygenic scores for the femoral neck (PGS_FNBMDidpred) and total body BMD (PGS_TBBMDidpred) and to estimate their potential in identifying individuals with a high risk of osteoporotic fractures. The second aim is to validate the predictive performance of two previously established PGSs (PGS_FNBMDidpred and PGS_TBBMDidpred) in an external cohort of 9,000 postmenopausal women of European ancestry. The third aim …

Benchmarking And Practical Evaluation Of Machine And Statistical Learning Methods In Credit Scoring: A Method Selection Perspective, Gwen Verbeck

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Predictive models are important tools used in all scientific fields. Machine learning (ML) algorithms and statistical models are widely used for decision-making because of their capability to tackle intricate and unique problems. In domains where data are high-dimensional and contain irrelevant and redundant features, ML algorithms are known to have superior performance over traditional (statistical) learning methods. However, researchers and analysts are often faced with a myriad of techniques to choose from, with no clear consensus on which will perform best for their specific task. Considering resource limitations, exhaustive exploration of all available methods is impractical and often fails to …

Payments Data In Gambling Research, Kasra Ghaharian, Mana Azizsoltani

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

A considerable body of gambling-related research has leveraged gamblers' behavioral tracking data to address a broad set of research questions. These data have typically comprised of gamblers' betting-related behaviors including, for example, the frequency and volume of betting. The analysis of gamblers' payment-related behavioral data is far less common, but provides a fruitful avenue gambling-related research.

In this presentation we discuss a selection of potential research opportunities that payments transaction data presents. We supplement this discussion with specific analyses that have been performed by our research group. We also discuss knowledge gaps and areas for future research.

Statistical Methods To Generate Artificial Slot Floor Data For The Advancement Of Casino Related Research, Courtney Bonner, Anastasia (Stasi) D. Baran, Jason D. Fiege, Saman Muthukumarana

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Abstract:

A common difficulty when researching gambling topics is the availability of high-quality data sets for development and testing. Due to the high level of secrecy within the gambling industry, if data is obtained for research purposes it is often prohibitively obfuscated, incomplete, or aggregated. Although these data have allowed for advancement in academic work, it leaves both the researchers and readers left wondering about what would be possible if more detailed data sets were available. To mitigate the paucity of data available to researchers, we present a Markov chain-based statistical process for producing artificial event data for a simulated …

A Game-Theoretic Analysis Of Baccara Chemin De Fer, Ii, Stewart N. Ethier, Jiyeon Lee

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

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The Rocket: Analyzing Rtp (Return To Player), Payoff Distribution And Player Behavior In Crash Games, Mikhail M. Sher, Robert Haywood Scott Iii, Jonathan A. Daigle

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Abstract

Rocket is a crash game developed by DraftKings, an American publicly traded online casino, sports betting and fantasy sports company. DraftKings Rocket is a game played with a rising rocket. Players must exit the rocket at any point before the rocket crashes. In that case they receive the payoff in accordance to the multiplier of their exit point. If the rocket crashes before the player bails, player’s payoff is 0 (and they lose their bet).

The game boasts an unprecedented 97% RTP (Return to Player). For comparison, Atlantic City casino slots typically have a 91-92% RTP, while Vegas casino …

Testing For Dice Control Based On Observations Of The Length Of The Shooter's Hand, Stewart N. Ethier, Hokwon Cho

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

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Stake Size And Wagering In A Professional Betting Environment – When Data Affects Decision Making, Anthony Bedford, Tristan Barnett

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

In this work, we discuss the structure of a number of professional wagering organisations, and how they attempt to deal with the “Ender’s Game” effect – when knowledge of the true nature of the ‘war being wagered’ may have affected the process and choice of betting. We analyse the responses from professional wagering and betting organisations, whom operate predominately in Horseracing and sportsbetting, and they identify the importance of separation of decisions around choices to make and the stakes and size of wagers that are linked to the decisions. The proposed model, practically carried out by one company, is an …

A Generalized Family Of Exponentiated Composite Distributions With Applications To Insurance And Survival Data, Bowen Liu

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The concept of composite distributions was proposed in the early 2000s as a good parametric solution to model the data with heavy tails. Since the concept was proposed, it has been widely used in different areas, such as modeling insurance claim size data, predicting the risk measures in insurance data analysis, fitting survival time data, and modeling precipitation data. While a lot of the composite distributions demonstrated great performances in real applications, many commonly used composite distributions such as the inverse gamma-Pareto (IGP) or exponential-Pareto (EP), did not demonstrate great performances when fitting to several particular data sets. In order …