Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Statistical Methods To Generate Artificial Slot Floor Data For The Advancement Of Casino Related Research, Courtney Bonner, Anastasia (Stasi) D. Baran, Jason D. Fiege, Saman Muthukumarana

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Abstract:

A common difficulty when researching gambling topics is the availability of high-quality data sets for development and testing. Due to the high level of secrecy within the gambling industry, if data is obtained for research purposes it is often prohibitively obfuscated, incomplete, or aggregated. Although these data have allowed for advancement in academic work, it leaves both the researchers and readers left wondering about what would be possible if more detailed data sets were available. To mitigate the paucity of data available to researchers, we present a Markov chain-based statistical process for producing artificial event data for a simulated …

Stake Size And Wagering In A Professional Betting Environment – When Data Affects Decision Making, Anthony Bedford, Tristan Barnett

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

In this work, we discuss the structure of a number of professional wagering organisations, and how they attempt to deal with the “Ender’s Game” effect – when knowledge of the true nature of the ‘war being wagered’ may have affected the process and choice of betting. We analyse the responses from professional wagering and betting organisations, whom operate predominately in Horseracing and sportsbetting, and they identify the importance of separation of decisions around choices to make and the stakes and size of wagers that are linked to the decisions. The proposed model, practically carried out by one company, is an …

Physical And Mental Disabilities Among The Gender-Diverse Population Using The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Brfss (2017–2019): A Propensity-Matched Analysis, Jennifer R. Pharr, Kavita Batra

Environmental & Occupational Health Faculty Publications

This propensity-matched analysis utilized the publicly available Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (2017–2019) data to compare the burden of disabilities among transgender/non-binary (TGNB) and cisgender groups. The groups were matched (1:1 ratio) on demographic variables using Nearest Neighborhood Matching. Categorical variables were compared among groups using a Chi-square analysis to test differences in the proportions. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was fit to predict the likelihood of the physical and mental disabilities among the TGNB group compared with the cisgender group while controlling for healthcare access factors, income, and employment. Survey weights were included in the model to account for the …

Addressing The Ecological Fallacy With Lagrangian Inference, Michael Schwob

Calvert Undergraduate Research Awards

Most epidemiologists elect to use statistical models that use population-level data to make inference on the spread of some virus or disease. This has become commonplace in the fields of epidemiology and biostatistics since most data used to construct and verify epidemic models are recorded at the population-level. Obtaining inference from a population-level model may be beneficial in studying the spread of disease in a homogeneous population, but the use of such models to describe a heterogeneous population results in inadequate inference. The inaccuracy of these models is further amplified when one tries to make individual-level inference from these population-level …

Pair-A-Dice Lost: Experiments In Dice Control, Robert H. Scott Iii, Donald R. Smith

UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal

This paper presents our findings from experiments designed to test whether we could use a custom-made dice throwing machine applying common dice control methods to produce dice rolls that differ from random. In earlier research we calculated the percentages of control a craps player needs to break even or beat the house (Smith and Scott, 2018). Using the most common practices of dice control in craps, we established how dice should be configured (i.e., set) and thrown to achieve certain outcomes such as not rolling a seven in the point cycle. We decided to run experiments to see if a …

A Statistical Analysis Of The Roulette Martingale System: Examples, Formulas And Simulations With R, Peter Pflaumer

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Some gamblers use a martingale or doubling strategy as a way of improving their chances of winning. This paper derives important formulas for the martingale strategy, such as the distribution, the expected value, the standard deviation of the profit, the risk of a loss or the expected bet of one or multiple martingale rounds. A computer simulation study with R of the doubling strategy is presented. The results of doubling to gambling with a constant sized bet on simple chances (red or black numbers, even or odd numbers, and low (1 – 18) or high (19 – 36) numbers) and …

Well I'Ll Be Damned - Insights Into Predictive Value Of Pedigree Information In Horse Racing, Timothy Baker Mr, Ming-Chien Sung, Johnnie Johnson Professor, Tiejun Ma

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Fundamental form characteristics like how fast a horse ran at its last start, are widely used to help predict the outcome of horse racing events. The exception being in races where horses haven’t previously competed, such as Maiden races, where there is little or no publicly available past performance information. In these types of events bettors need only consider a simplified suite of factors however this is offset by a higher level of uncertainty. This paper examines the inherent information content embedded within a horse’s ancestry and the extent to which this information is discounted in the United Kingdom bookmaker …

The Effects Of Enhanced And Decreased Expectations On Balance Performance In Those With And Without Parkinson’S Disease, Joshua Ostrander, Granuaile Parrish, Jacob Blood

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Background: It has been reported individuals typically perform well on a task when enhanced expectancy was provided prior to task performance. It has also been reported people with Parkinson’s disease (PD) are especially susceptible to pre-task placebo cuing and suggestion. Evidence of this susceptibility has been previously demonstrated through brain imaging studies and with demonstration by individuals with PD improved balance performance.

Objective: This study was designed to further previous studies’ results for improved task performance with enhanced expectancy. The purpose of this study was to investigate if the pre-task verbal delivery of enhanced expectancy, decreased expectancy and no expectancy …

Patient No-Show For Outpatient Physical Therapy: A National Survey, James Bokinskie, Payton Johnson, Trevor Mahoney

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Introduction: Patients who fail to show for scheduled medical appointments (no-show) create a cascade of issues for the health care system, the provider, and themselves. No-show can affect clinical productivity, cost and quality of care, and treatment outcomes. There is an overwhelming lack of research on no-show as it relates to outpatient physical therapy in the United States. The purposes of this study were to report national no-show rates, describe the presence and characteristics of no-show policies, determine the relationship of these policies and other demographic information to no-show rates, and describe the most commonly perceived reasons for no-show.

Methods: …

The Effects Of Instruction On Landing Strategies In Female College-Aged Dancers And Non-Dancers: A Pilot Study, Brittany Keating, Jason Pyfer, Kimberly Vialpando

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Background Female athletic participation has increased over the past decade and with it the prevalence of knee injuries. Current research demonstrates an increased risk of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury for female athletes. However, a number of studies have pointed out that ballet and modern dancers exhibit a lower incidence of ACL injuries despite the fact that they perform jumping and landing frequently.

Objective The objective of this study was to examine how dance experience and instruction affect the lower extremity biomechanics during drop landings. Specifically, lower extremity joint alignment and muscle activation of gluteus maximus and gluteus medius were …

Immediate Effects Of Cervical Spine Manipulation On Gait Parameters In Individuals With And Without Mechanical Neck Pain, Jordan Isom, Shaylyn Kennedy, Justin May, Samuel Moore

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine 1) if there were any differences in gait parameters between participants with mechanical neck pain and those without and 2) if cervical spine manipulation has an immediate effect on these gait parameters.

Methods: Twenty participants with mechanical neck pain and twenty participants without neck pain were randomly assigned into either the sham or manipulation group. The two intervention groups participated in walking across a GAITRite Walkway that recorded gait parameters such as stride length, cadence and step width before and after cervical spine manipulation. The participants walked at their own cadence …

The Immediate Effects Of Cervicothoracic Manipulation Versus Stretching On Upper Trapezius Pressure Pain Thresholds And Range Of Motion In Individuals Without Neck Pain, Kevin Carr, Morgan King, Erin Oelklaus, Brendan Parry

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Background and Purpose: Myofascial pain may be considered one of the most common clinical findings in patients with neck pain (NP). Motor aspects of myofascial pain include disturbed motor function and muscle weakness secondary to motor inhibition, muscle stiffness, and restricted range of motion (ROM). Currently, it is unclear which interventions may have the greatest immediate impact on pressure pain sensitivity and ROM. Several studies have demonstrated improved pressure pain thresholds (PPT) after cervical manipulation; however, it is not clear if manipulation targeted to the cervicothoracic (CT) junction will have a similar effect. Others recommend stretching as a method to …

Four Weeks Of Minimalist Style Running Training Reduced Lumbar Paraspinal Muscle Activation During Shod Running, Stephanie Barton, David Brown, Talia Joyce

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Background and Purpose: Research has shown that the risk of low back dysfunctions in runners is related to the increased mileage of distance running. Repetitive shock loading of the spinal structures during running has been indicated as one of the important biomechanical mechanisms underlying such injury. Acute changes in foot strike pattern, like those seen during minimalist style running, have been shown to lead to modifications in lumbar range of motion. Minimalist style running could lead to changes in lumbar biomechanics and muscle activation, potentially reducing the loading on the musculoskeletal structures of the lower back. However, the long term …

Comparing Usability And Variance Of Low- And High Technology Approaches To Gait Analysis In Health Adults, John Mcconnell, Brian Silverman

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare the usability, reliability, and objectivity of four tools that represented varying gait analysis technologies used in clinical practice and/or research. Low technology clinical tools included the Gait Abnormality Rating Scale (GARS-M) and the Rancho Los Amigos Observational Gait Analysis (Rancho OGA). High technology tools included the GAITRiteÒ computerized walkway, and the APDM Mobility LabÔ wearable sensor system.

Subjects: 74 healthy adults ages 18-41 years (mean = 24.82, SD = 4.39) 33 males and 40 females.

Methods: Subjects were instructed to walk at a self-selected speed for two minutes …

Roulette: More Than Just A Chance, David Abuhanna

Honors College Theses

Data were generated using a physical roulette wheel to test whether an association exists between initial conditions (the pocket from which the ball is released) and output (the pocket where the ball lands). I have generated data to determine whether there exists statistical significance in distributions of adjoined pockets. Using the statistical software Excel for data tabulation and mapping and using R for statistical computations, I determined a possible method for cheating. I also established an association does in fact exist between initial conditions and output. The existence of this association diminishes roulette as a game of "pure" chance. The …

Analysis Of Bank Failure And Size Of Assets, Guancun Zhong

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The financial health of the banking industry is an important prerequisite for economic stability and growth. Bank failures in the United States have run in cycles largely associated with the collapse of economic bubbles. The number of bank failures has increased dramatically over the last thirty years (Halling and Hayden, 2007). In this thesis, we try to address the following two questions: 1) What is the relationship, if any, between a bank's asset size and its likelihood of failures? 2) How can we use statistical tools to predict the numbers of bank failures in the future? Various modeling techniques are …

Statistical Analysis Of Fatalities Due To Vehicle Accidents In Las Vegas, Nv, Annabelle Marie Mathis

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The goal of this thesis is to investigate factors that affect the odds of having a fatality in a vehicle collision. We will be looking at characteristics of the driver that caused the accident (age, gender, behavior, actions, influences, and seat belt worn), the characteristics of the vehicle the driver drove (type of vehicle, and air bag deployment), the characteristics of the environment in which the accident occurred (weather, road condition, lighting, time of day, the day of the week, and month of the year), the characteristics of the crash (direction of accident and how many vehicles were involved), and …

A Statistical Model For Long-Term Forecasting Of Strong Sand Dust Storms, Siqi Tan

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Dust elevated into the atmosphere by dust storms has numerous environmental consequences. These include contributing to climate change; modifying local weather conditions; producing chemical and biological changes in the oceans; and affecting soil formation, surface water, groundwater quality, crop growth, and survival (Goudie and Middleton, 1992). Societal impacts include disruptions to air, road and rail traffic; interruption of radio services; the myriad effects of static-electricity generation; property damage; and health effects on humans and animals (Warner, 2004).

In this thesis, we extend the idea of empirical recurrence rate (ERR), developed by Ho (2008), to model the temporal trend of the …

Arima Models For Bank Failures: Prediction And Comparison, Fangjin Cui

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The number of bank failures has increased dramatically over the last twenty-two years. A common notion in economics is that some banks can become "too big to fail." Is this still a true statement? What is the relationship, if any, between bank sizes and bank failures? In this thesis, the proposed modeling techniques are applied to real bank failure data from the FDIC. In particular, quarterly data from 1989:Q1 to 2010:Q4 are used in the data analysis, which includes three major parts: 1) pairwise bank failure rate comparisons using the conditional test (Przyborowski and Wilenski, 1940); 2) development of the …

Arima Model For Forecasting Poisson Data: Application To Long-Term Earthquake Predictions, Wangdong Fu

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Earthquakes that occurred worldwide during the period of 1896 to 2009 with magnitude greater than or equal to 8.0 on the Richter scale are assumed to follow a Poisson process. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models are presented to fit the empirical recurrence rates, and to predict future large earthquakes. We show valuable modeling and computational techniques for the point processes and time series data. Specifically, for the proposed methodology, we address the following areas: data management and graphic presentation, model fitting and selection, model validation, model and data sensitivity analysis, and forecasting.

Statistical Inferences For Functions Of Parameters Of Several Pareto And Exponential Populations With Application In Data Traffic, Sumith Gunasekera

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

In this dissertation, we discuss the usability and applicability of three statistical inferential frameworks--namely, the Classical Method, which is sometimes referred to as the Conventional or the Frequentist Method, based on the approximate large sample approach, the Generalized Variable Method based on the exact generalized p -value approach, and the Bayesian Method based on prior densities--for solving existing problems in the area of parametric estimation. These inference procedures are discussed through Pareto and exponential distributions that are widely used to model positive random variables relevant to social, scientific, actuarial, insurance, finance, investments, banking, and many other types of observable phenomena. …