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Solutions For Fermi Questions, January 2022: Question 1: Snow Volume; Question 2: Longbow Arrow Velocity, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Influence Of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation On Rainfall Extremes In The Philippines, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, John A. Manalo, Jun Matsumoto

Physics Faculty Publications

This study investigates the impact of the northward/northwestward propagating 30–60-day mode of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) on the extreme rainfall events in the Philippines during the June–September (JJAS) season from 1979 to 2018. The Philippines domain is divided into the three latitudinal regions: Luzon region (13°–22°N), Visayas region (10°–13°N), and Mindanao region (5°–10°N) to account for the regional differences in the timing of extreme rainfall events. The probability density functions of JJAS rainfall are skewed towards higher values relative to the non-BSISO days in BSISO Phases 6–8, Phases 5–7, and Phases 4–6 over the Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao …

Particulate Oxalate-To-Sulfate Ratio As An Aqueous Processing Marker: Similarity Across Field Campaigns And Limitations, Miguel Ricardo A. Hilario, Ewan Crosbie, Paola Angela Bañaga, Grace Betito, Rachel A. Braun, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, Andrea F. Corral, Melliza Templonuevo Cruz, Jackie E. Dibb, Genevieve Rose Lorenzo, Alexander B. Macdonald, Claire E. Robinson, Michael Shook, James Bernard Simpas, Connor Stahl, Edward Winstead, Luke Ziemba, Armin Sorooshian

Physics Faculty Publications

Leveraging aerosol data from multiple airborne and surface-based field campaigns encompassing diverse environmental conditions, we calculate statistics of the oxalate-sulfate mass ratio (median: 0.0217; 95% confidence interval: 0.0154 – 0.0296; R = 0.76; N = 2948). Ground-based measurements of the oxalate-sulfate ratio fall within our 95% confidence interval, suggesting the range is robust within the mixed layer for the submicrometer particle size range. We demonstrate that dust and biomass burning emissions can separately bias this ratio towards higher values by at least one order of magnitude. In the absence of these confounding factors, the 95% confidence interval of the ratio …

Total Organic Carbon And The Contribution From Speciated Organics In Cloud Water: Airborne Data Analysis From The Camp2ex Field Campaign, Connor Stahl, Ewan Crosbie, Paola Angela Bañaga, Grace Betito, Rachel A. Braun, Zenn Marie Cainglet, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, Melliza Templonuevo Cruz, Julie Mae Dado, Miguel Ricardo Hilario, Gabrielle Leung, Alexander B. Macdonald, Angela Monina T. Magnaye, Jeffrey S. Reid, Claire E. Robinson, Michael Shook, James Bernard Simpas, Shane Marie Visaga, Edward Winstead, Luke Ziemba, Armin Sorooshian

Physics Faculty Publications

This work focuses on total organic carbon (TOC) and contributing species in cloud water over Southeast Asia using a rare airborne dataset collected during NASA’s Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex), in which a wide variety of maritime clouds were studied, including cumulus congestus, altocumulus, altostratus, and cumulus. Knowledge of TOC masses and their contributing species is needed for improved modeling of cloud processing of organics and to understand how aerosols and gases impact and are impacted by clouds. This work relies on 159 samples collected with an axial cyclone cloudwater collector at altitudes of 0.2–6.8 km that …

Synoptic Conditions And Potential Causes Of The Extreme Heavy Rainfall Event Of January 2009 Over Mindanao Island, Philippines, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, Michelle Español Caballar, Joseph Cabacungan De Mata, Loida Ann Torres Dagami, Jun Matsumoto, Hisayuki Kubota

Physics Faculty Publications

This study investigates the synoptic conditions that led to the heavy rainfall/flood (HRF) event in Mindanao Island, Philippines (122 −127°E; 5 −10°N), on January 2009 (JAN2009 HRF) that are less emphasized in previous works. Extensive flooding was reported over Cagayan de Oro City in the northern part of Mindanao, where the rainfall on January 10, 11, and 13, 2009, exceeded the 99th percentile of daily rainfall records of all January of the city from 1979 to 2017 by almost two times. A similar exceedance was also felt in Hinatuan station over the eastern coast of Mindanao Island on January 15, …

The Effect Of Urbanization On Temperature Indices In The Philippines, John A. Manalo, Jun Matsumoto, Hiroshi G. Takahashi, Marcelino Q. Villafuerte Ii, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, Guoyu Ren, Thelma Cinco

Physics Faculty Publications

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the effect of urbanization on the surface air temperature (SAT) from 1951 to 2018 in the Philippines. The daily minimum temperature (T_min) and daily maximum temperature (T_max) records from 34 meteorological stations were used to derive extreme temperature indices. These stations were then classified as urban or rural based on satellite night-lights. The results showed a significant difference in the SAT trends between urban and rural stations, indicative of the effect of urbanization in the country. Larger and more significant warming trends were observed in indices related …

Measurement Report: Firework Impacts On Air Quality In Metro Manila, Philippines, During The 2019 New Year Revelry, Genevieve Rose Lorenzo, Paola Angela Bañaga, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, Melliza Templonuevo Cruz, Mojtaba Azadi Aghdam, Avelino Arellano, Grace Betito, Rachel A. Braun, Andrea F. Corral, Hossein Dadashazar, Eva-Lou Edwards, Edwin Eloranta, Robert Holz, Gabrielle Leung, Lin Ma, Alexander B. Macdonald, Jeffrey S. Reid, James Bernard Simpas, Connor Stahl, Shane Marie Visaga, Armin Sorooshian

Physics Faculty Publications

Fireworks degrade air quality, reduce visibility, alter atmospheric chemistry, and cause short-term adverse health effects. However, there have not been any comprehensive physicochemical and optical measurements of fireworks and their associated impacts in a Southeast Asia megacity, where fireworks are a regular part of the culture. Size-resolved particulate matter (PM) measurements were made before, during, and after New Year 2019 at the Manila Observatory in Quezon City, Philippines, as part of the Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex). A high-spectral-resolution lidar (HSRL) recorded a substantial increase in backscattered signal associated with high aerosol loading ∼440 m above the …

Measurement Report: Long-Range Transport Patterns Into The Tropical Northwest Pacific During The Camp2ex Aircraft Campaign: Chemical Composition, Size Distributions, And The Impact Of Convection, Miguel Ricardo A. Hilario, Ewan Crosbie, Michael Shook, Jeffrey S. Reid, Maria Obiminda L. Cambaliza, James Bernard Simpas, Luke Ziemba, Joshua P. Digangi, Glenn S. Diskin, Phu Nguyen, F. Joseph Turk, Edward Winstead, Claire E. Robinson, Jian Wang, Jiaoshi Zhang, Yang Wang, Subin Yoon, James Flynn, Sergio L. Alvarez, Ali Behrangi, Armin Sorooshian

Physics Faculty Publications

The tropical Northwest Pacific (TNWP) is a receptor for pollution sources throughout Asia and is highly susceptible to climate change, making it imperative to understand long-range transport in this complex aerosol-meteorological environment. Measurements from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex; 24 August to 5 October 2019) and back trajectories from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) were used to examine transport into the TNWP from the Maritime Continent (MC), peninsular Southeast Asia (PSEA), East Asia (EA), and the West Pacific (WP). A mid-campaign monsoon shift on 20 September …

A Climatological Analysis Of The Monsoon Break Following The Summer Monsoon Onset Over Luzon Island, Philippines, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, Jun Matsumoto, Hisayuki Kubota, Esperanza O. Cayanan, Flaviana D. Hilario

Physics Faculty Publications

This study investigates the climatology of the monsoon break following the onset of the summer rainy season over Luzon Island (120–122.5°E, 13–22°N) in the Philippines from 1979–2017. The first post-onset monsoon break is remarkable in stations located over the north and central Luzon Island and occurs climatologically in early June. Composite analysis of the large-scale circulation features during the monsoon break period shows that this break is associated with the westward extension of the western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH), which weakened the monsoon southwesterlies and induced enhanced low-level divergence over Luzon Island. The westward extension of the WNPSH may …

Non-Tropical Cyclone Related Winter Heavy Rainfall Events Over The Philippines: Climatology And Mechanisms, Lyndon Mark Olaguera, Jun Matsumoto, Julie Mae Dado, Gemma T. Narisma

Physics Faculty Publications

This study investigates non-tropical cyclone (TC) related boreal winter heavy rainfall events that lead to extensive flooding (HRF) over the Philippines through a case study and composite analysis. The HRF event examined occurred during January 16–22, 2017 over Cagayan de Oro City (CDO) in Mindanao Island (122–127°E, 5–10°N). The accumulated rainfall over CDO reached by about 180 mm from 00 UTC January 16 to 00 UTC January 17, 2017, exceeding the climatological maximum daily rainfall in January over this area. The interaction of a westward propagating cyclonic circulation over Mindanao Island (MCC) and a shearline that is associated with an …

Aerosol Particle And Black Carbon Emission Factors Of Vehicular Fleet In Manila, Philippines, Leizel Madueño, Simonas Kecorius, Wolfram Birmili, Thomas Müller, James Bernard Simpas, Edgar Vallar, Maria Cecilia Galvez, Mylene Cayetano, Alfred Wiedensohler

Physics Faculty Publications

Poor air quality has been identified as one of the main risks to human health, especially in developing regions, where the information on physical chemical properties of air pollutants is lacking. To bridge this gap, we conducted an intensive measurement campaign in Manila, Philippines to determine the emission factors (EFs) of particle number (PN) and equivalent black carbon (BC). The focus was on public utility jeepneys (PUJ), equipped with old technology diesel engines, widely used for public transportation. The EFs were determined by aerosol physical measurements, fleet information, and modeled dilution using the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM). The results …

Power-Law Scaling In The Internal Variability Of Cumulus Cloud Size Distributions Due To Subsampling And Spatial Organization, R. A. J. Neggers, P. J. Griewank, Thijs Heus

Physics Faculty Publications

In this study, the spatial structure of cumulus cloud populations is investigated using three-dimensional snapshots from large-domain LES experiments. The aim is to understand and quantify the internal variability in cloud size distributions due to subsampling effects and spatial organization. A set of idealized shallow cumulus cases is selected with varying degrees of spatial organization, including a slowly organizing marine precipitating case and five more quickly organizing diurnal cases over land. A subdomain analysis is applied, yielding cloud number distributions at sample sizes ranging from severely undersampled to nearly complete. A strong power-law scaling is found in the relation between …

Activity Pattern Of School/University Tenants And Their Family Members In Metro Manila – Philippines, Simonas Kecorius, Everlyn Gale Tamayo, Maria Cecilia Galvez, Leizel Madueño, Grace Betito, Mylene Gonzaga-Cayetano, Edgar Vallar, Alfred Wiedensohler

Physics Faculty Publications

Existing studies that focus on personal exposure to or the deposition dose of particulate pollution in developing regions are limited. Hence, in this study, as a first step, we present results on how people spend their daily time in Metro Manila, Philippines. This information is critical to assessing personal exposure to and the deposition dose of particulate pollutants. We found that people spend less time at home on workdays than weekends (52% versus 70%), the fraction of time spent at work/school increases with age until retirement, adult males spend less time at home than females (18% versus 28%), and people …

Exploring The Reasons For The Seasons Using Google Earth, 3d Models, And Plots, Declan G. De Paor, Mladen M. Dordevic, Paul Karabinos, Stephen Burgin, Filis Coba, Steven J. Whitmeyer

Physics Faculty Publications

Public understanding of climate and climate change is of broad societal importance. However, misconceptions regarding reasons for the seasons abound amongst students, teachers, and the public, many of whom believe that seasonality is caused by large variations in Earth's distance from the Sun. Misconceptions may be reinforced by textbook illustrations that exaggerate eccentricity or show an inclined view of Earth's near-circular orbit. Textbook explanations that omit multiple factors influencing seasons, that do not mesh with students' experiences, or that are erroneous, hinder scientifically valid reasoning. Studies show that many teachers share their students' misconceptions, and even when they understand basic …

Boom Or Bust? Mapping Out The Known Unknowns Of Global Shale Gas Production Potential, Jérôme Hilaire, Nico Bauer, Robert J. Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

To assess the global production costs of shale gas, we combine global top-down data with detailed bottom-up information. Studies solely based on top-down approaches do not adequately account for the heterogeneity of shale gas deposits and hence, are unlikely to appropriately capture the extraction costs of shale gas. We design and provide an expedient bottom-up method based on publicly available US data to compute the levelized costs of shale gas extraction. Our results indicate the existence of economically attractive areas but also reveal a dramatic cost increase as lower-quality reservoirs are exploited. At the global level, our best estimate suggests …

Rose: Roadmaps Towards Sustainable Energy Futures And Climate Protection: A Synthesis Of Results From The Rose Project, Elmar Kriegler, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Gunnar Luderer, Nico Bauer, Katherine Calvin, Enrica Decian, Robert J. Brecha, Wenying Chen, Aleh Cherp, Jae Edmonds, Kejun Jiang, Shonali Pachauri, Fabio Sferra, Massimo Tavoni, Ottmar Edenhofer

Physics Faculty Publications

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Exploring energy demand and supply uncertainty: An exploration of uncertainty on drivers of energy demand and supply is indispensable for better understanding the prospects of long-tern climate stabilization. The RoSE study is the first of its kind to systematically explore the impact of economic growth, population and fossil fuel scarcity, in scenarios with and without climate policy, using a model ensemble. A feature of RoSE is the participation of five established integrated assessment modelling teams from three important regions in international climate policy negotiations: the EU, the USA and China.

Economic growth: Neither slow nor rapid economic growth …