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Source Term Estimation Of Atmospheric Pollutants Using An Ensemble Of Hysplit Concentration Simulations, Casey L. Zoellick
Source Term Estimation Of Atmospheric Pollutants Using An Ensemble Of Hysplit Concentration Simulations, Casey L. Zoellick
Theses and Dissertations
In support of Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring and nuclear event detection, this study works toward source term estimation (STE) of dispersive pollutants using a novel method|an ensemble of forward trajectory concentration simulations using a meteorology-coupled dispersion model. Traditionally a mathematically and physically rigorous problem, STE of a plume of atmospheric pollutants can be solved in a variety of ways depending on what is known regarding the emission, but little has been studied on the sensitivity between the horizontal resolution of the meteorology data in relation to the dispersion model and the results derived from known concentrations at multiple locations. …
Quantifying Uncertainty Of Ensemble Transport And Dispersion Simulations Using Hysplit, Daniel W. Bazemore
Quantifying Uncertainty Of Ensemble Transport And Dispersion Simulations Using Hysplit, Daniel W. Bazemore
Theses and Dissertations
Uncertainty associated with determining the source location of nuclear pollutants in the atmosphere after a nuclear fallout using a numerical model is difficult to determine. Uncertainty can originate from input data (meteorological and emissions), internal model error, physics parameterizations, and stochastic processes. This study uses the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model with data from the 1983 Cross Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX) (Ferber et al. 1986) and simulating six nuclear detonations (Rolph et al. 2014) to quantify and communicate uncertainty in ensemble dispersion simulations. This is accomplished by utilizing an ensemble of forward trajectory simulations varying initial conditions …