Climate Commons^™

Umphlett Qci Dec 2014, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought Conditions

Agriculture

Horticulture

Recreation and Tourism

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Agricultural Advisors As Climate Information Intermediaries: Exploring Differences In Capacity To Communicate Climate, Tonya Haigh, Lois Wright Morton, Maria Carmen Lemos, Cody Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Yun Jia Lo, Jim Angel

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Although agricultural production faces chronic stress associated with extreme precipitation events, high temperatures, drought, and shifts in climate conditions, adoption of climate information into agricultural decision making has been relatively limited. Agricultural advisors have been shown to play important roles as information intermediaries between scientists and farmers, brokering, translating, and adding value to agronomic and economic information of use in agricultural management decision making. Yet little is known about the readiness of different types of agricultural advisors to use weather and climate information to help their clients manage risk under increasing climate uncertainty. More than 1700 agricultural advisors in four …

Reply To ‘Co2 Emissions From Crop Residue-Derived Biofuels’, Adam Liska, Haishun Yang, Matthew P. Pelton, Andrew E. Suyker

Adam Liska Papers

The soil organic carbon (SOC) model that we used was parameterized with data from arable land under normal farming conditions in North America, Europe, Africa and Asia, but the equation is insensitive to changes in tillage, soil texture and moisture. The model has reasonable accuracy, however, in predicting changes in SOC, residue remaining and CO₂ emissions from initial SOC, carbon inputs from residue, and daily temperature; the shoot-to-root ratio used in the geospatial simulation was 0.29 (that is, root carbon is 29% of total aboveground carbon), which did not underestimate carbon input to soil (Supplementary Figure 2 in Ref. …

Droughtscape- Fall 2014, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report...........................1

Upcoming events.........................3

Drought & climate summary ........ 4

Drought impacts .........................6

Drought planning in Brazil ........10

Ethiopian workshop ................... 12

Visiting scholar .........................13

Help for South Plains ranchers.........13

Wind River tribal workshop...........14

Inter Tribal Buffalo Council ............ 15

South Dakota ranch workshops............ 16

Umphlett Qci Sept 2014, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

􏰞􏰥􏰬􏰨􏰤􏰵􏰶􏰫Streamflow

Long-term Impacts of Drought

Cool, Wet Summer Benefits

Heavy Precipitation Impacts the Missouri River and its Tributaries

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Crop Advisors As Climate Information Brokers: Building The Capacity Of Us Farmers To Adapt To Climate Change, Maria Carmen Lemos, Yun-Jia Lo, Christine Kirchhoff, Tonya Haigh

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This paper examines the role of crop advisors as brokers of climate information to support US corn farmers to adapt to climatic change. It uses quantitative data collected from a broad survey of crop advisors in the US Corn Belt to examine the factors that shape advisors’ use of (and willingness to provide) climate information to their clients. Building upon a general model of climate information usability we argue that advisors’ willingness to provide climate advice to farmers is influenced by three main factors: their information seeking habits and behavior, their experience with innovation in the past, and how climate …

Eastern Us Dryline Climatology And Synoptic-Scale Environment, Rebecca S. Duell

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The dryline is an important focal point for convection initiation, and the subject of many studies. While the most common location for drylines is the southern Great Plains, dryline passages and subsequent severe weather outbreaks have been documented in the Mississippi River Valley and into portions of the southeastern United States. Little is known about these “eastern” drylines or how often they occur, as no climatologies or detailed studies have been published on them. This thesis presents a fifteen-year climatology (1999-2013) of eastern drylines in an effort to identify how often and where they typically occur, and to identify synoptic …

The Hard Winter Of 1880-1881: Climatological Context And Communication Via A Laura Ingalls Wilder Narrative, Barbara Boustead

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The Hard Winter of 1880-1881 was featured in the Laura Ingalls Wilder historical fiction account, The Long Winter, as well as in several town histories across the region. Both meteorological records and historical accounts indicate that the winter was particularly long, snowy, and cold. The question of how “hard” a winter is for a given location depends on the climatological context, which relies on an objective characterization of winter severity. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) allows comparison of the winter of 1880-1881 among sites across the region, as well as in the context of the period of …

Using Temporal Changes In Drought Indices To Generate Probabilistic Drought Intensification Forecasts, Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Mark Svoboda

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In this study, the potential utility of using rapid temporal changes in drought indices to provide early warning of an elevated risk for drought development over subseasonal time scales is assessed. Standardized change anomalies were computed each week during the 2000–13 growing seasons for drought indices depicting anomalies in evapotranspiration, precipitation, and soil moisture. A rapid change index (RCI) that encapsulates the accumulated magnitude of rapid changes in the weekly anomalies was computed each week for each drought index, and then a simple statistical method was used to convert the RCI values into drought intensification probabilities depicting the likelihood that …

Aerosol Association With Severe Weather In The Great Plains, Gabriel A. Lojero

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Aerosols particles may serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and therefore play an important role in modulating cloud microphysics, to the point where convective storm intensity may be altered. The purpose of this study is to determine the impacts of biomass burning aerosols on convective storms over the Great Plains, especially the southern Great Plains, and to show synoptic regimes characterizing differing aerosol concentrations. A new technique to identify days with a high concentration of biomass burning aerosols was developed by using organic carbon, potassium, zinc, and bromine as the predominant tracers. An eleven-year climatology (2002-2012) for the biomass burning …

Droughtscape- Summer 2014, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report...........................1

Outlook ........................................ 2

Drought & climate summary ........ 2

Drought impacts .........................4

International drought monitoring and planning ...............................8

Visiting scholars.........................10

North American Drought Monitor Forum ........................................ 11

New primary Dust Bowl source .............. 12

New additions to online webinar archive ....................................... 14

Community Capitals Framework Institute ...................................... 15

Springtime Atmospheric Responses To North Atlantic Sst Anomalies In Idealized Gcm Experiments: Northern Hemisphere Circulation And North American Precipitation, Michael C. Veres

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

In this study, a series of experiments using idealized sea surface temperatures (SST), land and orography are performed to examine the interactions between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), continents and major orography. Three sets of experiments are done using an increasingly realistic surface boundary (aqua-planet, land without orography and land with orography) and run using perpetual equinox conditions. For each land surface boundary, the model is forced with a zonally symmetric SST, with additional experiments with an imposed positive or negative SST anomalies in the North Atlantic. The experiments are then compared to determine how these forcings interact and what …

Umphlett Qci June 2014, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

􏰞􏰥􏰬􏰨􏰤􏰮􏱨Streamflow

Drought Impacts to Livestock

Continued Cold Hampers Producers in North

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Water-Use Restriction Information: Information Sharing Between Public Water Systems And State Government Offices, Christopher Carparelli

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In many states there is an absence of communication between the state and local levels about many aspects of water resource management. This research examines the interaction between the state and local levels regarding water-use restrictions for public water systems (PWSs). This information is useful for state-level drought planning and mitigation through the assessment of drought impacts on public water supplies. Officials from five state-level entities that collect and disseminate local water-use restriction information were interviewed over the phone for this research. Each official was asked eleven questions about how and why their state collects and disseminates PWS water-use restriction …

Variable Bounds Analysis Of A Climate Model Using Software Verification Techniques, Peter Revesz, Robert Woodward

CSE Conference and Workshop Papers

Software verification techniques often use some approximation method that identifies the limits of the possible range of values that variables in a computer program can take during execution. Current climate models are complex computer programs that are typically iterated time-step by time-step to predict the next value of the climate-related variables. Because these iterative methods are necessarily computed only for a fixed number of iterations, they are unable to answer many long-range questions that may be posed regarding climate change, for example, whether there are natural fluctuations or whether a tipping point is reached after which there is no return …

Body Size And Species Richness Changes In Glyptosaurinae (Squamata: Anguidae) Through Climatic Transitions Of The North American Cenozoic, Sara Elshafie

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Poikilothermic vertebrates offer excellent climate proxies based on relationships between environment and measurable variables such as body size and species richness. Relationships of these variables in lizards to environmental transitions over long time scales are poorly understood. Here I show that patterns of body size and species richness in a lizard clade, Glyptosaurinae (Squamata: Anguidae), correspond to known histories of paleotemperatures through the Cenozoic of North America. Glyptosaurines have the richest fossil record among North American Cenozoic lizards and exhibit a wide range of skull sizes. In order to estimate body size for glyptosaurines and other fossil anguids, I collected …

Uncertainties In Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions From U.S. Beef Cattle, Quentin M. Dudley, Adam Liska, Andrea K. Watson, Galen E. Erickson

Adam Liska Papers

Beef cattle feedlots are estimated to contribute 26% of U.S. agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and future climate change policy could target reducing these emissions. Life cycle assessment (LCA) of GHG emissions from U.S. grain-fed beef cattle was conducted based on industry statistics and previous studies to identify the main sources of uncertainty in these estimations. Uncertainty associated with GHG emissions from indirect land use change, pasture soil emissions (e.g. soil carbon sequestration), enteric fermentation from cattle on pasture, and methane emissions from feedlot manure, respectively, contributed the most variability to life cycle GHG emissions from beef production. Feeding of …

Droughtscape- Spring 2014, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report...........................1

Outlook ........................................ 2

Drought climate recap ................. 3

Drought impacts .........................4

DroughtAtlas ..............................8

Missouri River Basin pilot ............ 9

NASA Horn of Africa project ............... 10

U2U tools and social science ............. 12

Consulting for Turkey................. 14

Czech drought monitoring ......... 14

Umphlett Qci March 2014, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Agriculture

Tourism and Recreation

Missouri Basin Flood Outlook

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Landsat-8: Science And Product Vision For Terrestrial Global Change Research, David P. Roy, M. A. Wulder, T. R. Loveland, C. E. Woodcock, R. G. Allen, M. C. Anderson, D. Helder, J. R. Irons, D. M. Johnson, R. Kennedy, T. A. Scambos, C. B. Schaaf, J. R. Schott, Y. Sheng, E. F. Vermote, A. S. Belward, R. Bindschadler, W. B. Cohen, F. Gao, J. D. Hipple, P. Hostert, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nv, C. O. Justice, Ayse Kilic, V. Kovalskyy, Z. P. Lee, L. Lymburner, J. G. Masek, J. Mccorkel, Y. Shuai, R. Trezza, J. Vogelmann, R. H. Wynne, Z. Zhu

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Landsat 8, a NASA and USGS collaboration, acquires global moderate-resolution measurements of the Earth's terrestrial and polar regions in the visible, near-infrared, short wave, and thermal infrared. Landsat 8 extends the remarkable 40 year Landsat record and has enhanced capabilities including new spectral bands in the blue and cirrus cloud-detection portion of the spectrum, two thermal bands, improved sensor signal-to-noise performance and associated improvements in radiometric resolution, and an improved duty cycle that allows collection of a significantly greater number of images per day. This paper introduces the current (2012–2017) Landsat Science Team's efforts to establish an initial understanding of …

Data-Driven Diagnostics Of Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics Over North America, Jingfeng Xiao, Scott V. Ollinger, Steve Frolking, George Hurtt, David Y. Hollinger, Kenneth J. Davis, Yude Pan, Xiaoyang Zhang, Feng Deng, Jiquan Chen, Dennis D. Baldocchi, Beverly E. Law, M. Altaf Arain, Ankur R. Desai, Andrew D. Richardson, Ge Sun, Brian Amiro, Hank Margolis, Lianhong Gu, Russell L. Scott, Peter D. Blanken, Andrew E. Suyker

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The exchange of carbon dioxide is a key measure of ecosystem metabolism and a critical intersection between the terrestrial biosphere and the Earth’s climate. Despite the general agreement that the terrestrial ecosystems in North America provide a sizeable carbon sink, the size and distribution of the sink remain uncertain. We use a data-driven approach to upscale eddy covariance flux observations from towers to the continental scale by integrating flux observations, meteorology, stand age,aboveground biomass, and a proxy for canopy nitrogen concentrations from AmeriFlux and Fluxnet-Canada Research Network as well as a variety of satellite data streams from the MODIS sensors. …

Rapid Fluctuations In Mid-Latitude Siliceous Plankton Production During The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (Odp Site 1051, Western North Atlantic), Jakub Witkowski, Steven M. Bohaty, Kirsty M. Edgar, David M. Harwood

ANDRILL Research and Publications

The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO; ~ 40 million years ago [Ma]) is one of the most prominent transient global warming events in the Paleogene. Although the event is well documented in geochemical and isotopic proxy records at many locations, the marine biotic response to the MECO remains poorly constrained. We present new high-resolution, quantitative records of siliceous microplankton assemblages from the MECO interval of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1051 in the subtropical western North Atlantic Ocean, which are interpreted in the context of published foraminiferal and bulk carbonate stable isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) records. …

Droughtscape- Winter 2014, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report...........................1

Outlook & quarterly review .......... 2

Drought in 2013 review................3

Quarterly impacts review ............. 5

Impacts in 2013 review................8

Belmont Forum research...........10

USDM change maps ................. 11

Central Asia drought planning ....... 12

Kansas RC&D planning.............13

Publication compares plans.......13

Drought for planners webinar .... 14

Soil moisture networks .............. 14

KS farm & ranch planning..........15

$500 to develop leadership ....... 15

Kids seek solutions....................16

Plains symposium April 1-4 ....... 17

Finding Them Before They Find Us: Informatics, Parasites, And Environments In Accelerating Climate Change, Daniel R. Brooks, Eric P. Hoberg, Walter A. Boeger, Scott Lyell Gardner, Kurt E. Galbreath, David Herczeg, Hugo H. Mejía-Madrid, S. Elizabeth Rácz, Altangerel Tsogtsaikhan Dursahinhan

Harold W. Manter Laboratory of Parasitology: Faculty and Staff Publications

Parasites are agents of disease in humans, livestock, crops, and wildlife and are powerful representations of the ecological and historical context of the diseases they cause. Recognizing a nexus of professional opportunities and global public need, we gathered at the Cedar Point Biological Station of the University of Nebraska in September 2012 to formulate a cooperative and broad platform for providing essential information about the evolution, ecology, and epidemiology of parasites across host groups, parasite groups, geographical regions, and ecosystem types. A general protocol, documentation–assessment–monitoring–action (DAMA), suggests an integrated proposal to build a proactive capacity to understand, anticipate, and respond …

Obama Climate Plan, J. David Aiken

Cornhusker Economics

States have been the policy leaders in establishing programs to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from power plants in the US through state renewable energy programs and energy efficiency programs. However, US global warming policy may have turned an important corner during the Obama administration. In the US the two largest sources of GHG emissions are motor vehicles and coal-fired power plants. Significantly reducing US GHG emissions would require addressing these two issues. The Obama climate plan does so. The most contentious issue is reducing GHG emissions from existing power plants. But states will be able to do so through …

Investigating The Effect Of The ‘‘Land Between The Lakes’’ On Storm Patterns, Joshua D. Durkee, Ahmed M. Degu, Faisal Hossain, Rezaul Mahmood, Jesse Winchester, Themis Chronis

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

The artificially created region around the ‘‘Land between the Lakes’’ (LBL) in Kentucky represents unique land use and land cover (LULC) heterogeneities. Over a distance of 100 km, the LULC comprises artificially created open water bodies (i.e., two parallel large run-on-river dams separated by the LBL), mountainous terrain, forest cover, and extensive agricultural land. Such heterogeneities increase (decrease) moisture supply and sensible heat, resulting in a differential air mass boundary that helps to initiate (inhibit) convection. Hence, the LBL can potentially modify precipitation formation. Historical anecdotes reveal a tendency for storms to dissipate or reintensify near the LBL. The specific …

Winter Wind Chill Climatology For The High Plains Region, Holly B. Lussenden, Natalie A. Umphlett, Martha D. Shulski, Daniel Ebert

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

During the winter months in the High Plains region of the United States, wind chill temperatures can reach dangerous levels for humans and animals. Knowing the frequency in which extreme wind chill temperatures occur could help forecasters know when to issue wind chill advisories and also the general public understand just how rare, or common, certain wind chill temperatures are. A climatology spanning a 37-year period was created using data from 57 stations in and around the plains portion of the High Plains region from the Integrated Surface Hourly Database at National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). These climatologies were completed …

Climate Masters Of Nebraska: An Innovative Action-Based Approach For Climate Change Education, Tapan Pathak, Tonya Bernadt, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

Climate Masters of Nebraska is an innovative educational program that strategically trains community volunteers about climate change science and corresponding ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in an interactive and action-based teaching environment. As a result of the program, 91% of participants indicated that they made informed changes in their lives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Approximately 500 hours of volunteer work was reported by participants as an outreach for greenhouse gas emission reduction. The program can be easily replicated to other locales with an effective planning and with small leadership team.

A Comparison Of The Mm5 And The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Simulations For Land--Atmosphere Interactions Under Varying Soil Moisture, Astrid Suarez, Rezaul Mamood, Arturo I. Quintanar, Adriana Beltran-Prezekurat, Roger Pielke Sr.

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

A comparison between two mesoscale models, Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) version 4.4 coupled with the Land-Ecosystem--Atmosphere Feedback Model (LEAF2) and Penn State/NCAR’s Mesoscale Model (MM5) coupled with NOAH Land Surface Model, was conducted in order to assess the sensitivity of forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) variables to anomalous initial volumetric soil moisture conditions. The experiments were conducted using three synoptic events: June 11, 17 and 22, 2006. For each event, one control run and six additional simulations were completed using RAMS and MM5. In each of the events, initial volumetric soil moisture was increased and decreased …