Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

Umphlett Qci Dec 2013, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Soil Moisture

September Flooding in Colorado

Early October Blizzard

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Observed Versus Gcm-Generated Local Tropical Cyclone Frequency: Comparisons Using A Spatial Lattice, Sarah Strazzo, Daniel J. Halperin, James Elsner, Tim Larow, Ming Zhao

Publications

Of broad scientific and public interest is the reliability of global climate models (GCMs) to simulate future regional and local tropical cyclone (TC) occurrences. Atmospheric GCMs are now able to generate vortices resembling actual TCs, but questions remain about their fidelity to observed TCs. Here the authors demonstrate a spatial lattice approach for comparing actual with simulated TC occurrences regionally using observed TCs from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset and GCM-generated TCs from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) and Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) …

Quantifying Risks Of Climate Change And Sea Level Rise To Naval Station Norfolk (Serdp Rc-1701), Kelly Burks-Copes

October 2, 2013: Quantifying Risks and Moving Forward

No abstract provided.

Planning And Drought, James C. Schwab

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter 1: Drought: The Problem.............................................. 1

Water Impacts ............................................................................... 2

Public Health Impacts ......................................................... 4

Environmental Impacts ..................................................... 5

Built Environment Impacts................................................ 6

Secondary Hazards ......................................................... 9

Economic Impacts ................................................................... 10

Drought as a Challenge for Planners .......................................... 13

Chapter 2: Drought: The Knowledge Base ................................................... 15

Spatial and Seasonal Patterns of Drought ................................................................ 16

Drought and Climate Changes .................................................................................. 19

Tracking Drought: Tools and Resources ................................................................... 20

Using the Drought Resources Toolbox...................................................................... 22

Droughtscape- Fall 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s Report ....................1

Kansas community drought planning workshop Nov. 5 ...... 2

Drought impacts webinars .....3

Drought outlook & summary ... 4

Late summer drought brings more agricultural impacts ....... 6

Plans help ranchers weather drought ................................. 10

NDMC contributions to U2U project ..................................12

Drought Management Database archives strategies................13

QuickDRI will help spot flash droughts................................ 14

NDMC Co-Hosts NASA work- shop......................................15

Wilhite leads Integrated Drought Management Program work....... 15

Speaking of drought ............ 16

Managing #Drought tweet chat transcript ..............................17

Updated USDM website ....... 17

Incorporating Satellite Derived Cloud Climatologies To Improve High Resolution Interpolation Of Daily Precipitation., Adam M. Wilson, Benoit Parmentier, Brian Mcgill, Rob Guralnick, Walter Jetz

Yale Day of Data

Conservation of biodiversity demands comprehension of evolutionary and ecological patterns and processes that occur over vast spatial and temporal scales. A central goal of ecology is to understand the factors that control the spatial distribution of species and this has become even more important in the face of climate change. However, at global scales there can be enormous uncertainty in environmental data used to model species distributions. Even ‘simple’ metrics such as mean annual precipitation are difficult to estimate in areas with few weather stations and available data sets do not quantify uncertainty in these surfaces. We are developing a …

Dynamical Downscaling Projections Of Twenty-First-Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Cmip3 And Cmip5 Model-Based Scenarios, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Stephen Garner, Ming Zhao, Hyeong-Seog Kim, Morris Bender, Robert E. Tuleya, Isaac M. Held, Gabriele Villarini

CCPO Publications

Twenty-first-century projections of Atlantic climate change are downscaled to explore the robustness of potential changes in hurricane activity. Multimodel ensembles using the phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3)/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRES A1B; late-twenty-first century) and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)/representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5; early- and late-twenty-first century) scenarios are examined. Ten individual CMIP3 models are downscaled to assess the spread of results among the CMIP3 (but not the CMIP5) models. Downscaling simulations are compared for 18-km grid regional and 50-km grid global models. Storm cases from the regional model …

Frequency, Intensity, And Sensitivity To Sea Surface Temperature Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones In Best-Track And Simulated Data, Sarah Strazzo, James B. Elsner, Jill C. Trepanier, Kerry A. Emanuel

Publications

Synthetic hurricane track data generated from a downscaling approach are compared to best-track (observed) data to analyze differences in regional frequency, intensity, and sensitivity of limiting intensity to sea surface temperature (SST). Overall, the spatial distributions of observed and simulated hurricane counts match well, although there are relatively fewer synthetic storms in the eastern quarter of the basin. Additionally, regions of intense synthetic hurricanes tend to coincide with regions of intense observed hurricanes. The sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to SST computed from synthetic data is slightly lower than sensitivity computed from observed data (5.561.31 m s21 (standard error, SE) …

Evaluating Predictability In The Community Earth System Model In Response To The Eruption Of Mount Pinatubo, Abigail Laurel Gaddis

Doctoral Dissertations

A central goal of climate research is to determine the perceptible effects of climate change on humans; in other words, the regional and decadal scale effects of carbon dioxide forcing. Identifying the most pronounced and long-lasting responses of climate variables to forcing is important for decadal prediction since forcing terms are a source of predictability on those time scales. Powerful volcanic eruptions provide a transient forcing on the climate system, creating a test bed for climate models. In this study, the Mount Pinatubo eruption is simulated in the Community Earth System Model, CESM1.0, for three model configurations: fully coupled T85 …

The Influence Of Soil Organic Matter Stabilization Mechanisms On Carbon Mean Residence Time Within Various Ecosystems In The United States, Vicky Lynn Giese, Kate Heckman Phd

STAR Program Research Presentations

Some terrestrial ecosystems and soils serve as carbon sinks, partially offsetting rising atmospheric CO₂ levels. Physiochemical mechanisms of soil organic matter (SOM) stabilization affect how carbon stocks respond to global warming. In order to clarify the variance in SOM stabilization mechanisms across different soil types, SOM abundance, distribution and mean residence time (MRT) were compared for thirty-two soil samples from six ecosystems across the United States. Soils were previously described, collected and archived by the United States Geological Survey. Samples were processed by LLNL at the Center for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (CAMS) using density fractionation to separate particulate organics …

Climate Change On The Prairie: A Basic Guide To Climate Change In The High Plains Region - Update, Lincoln, Ne

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

Global Climate Change

Climate Change in the United States

Historical Climate Trends in the High Plains Region

Historical Climate Trends in the High Plains Region

High Plains Region Update: 2010-2012

New Tool: Climate Impact Reporter

Climate Change Projections and Possible Impacts

Climate Change Projections and Possible Impacts

Classifying Reanalysis Surface Temperature Probability Density Functions (Pdfs) Over North America With Cluster Analysis, Paul C. Loikith, Benjamin R. Lintner, Jinwon Kim, Huikyo Lee

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

An important step in projecting future climate change impacts on extremes involves quantifying the underlying probability distribution functions (PDFs) of climate variables. However, doing so can prove challenging when multiple models and large domains are considered. Here an approach to PDF quantification using k-means clustering is considered. A standard clustering algorithm (with k = 5 clusters) is applied to 33 years of daily January surface temperature from two state-of-the-art reanalysis products, the North American Regional Reanalysis and the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications. The resulting cluster assignments yield spatially coherent patterns that can be broadly related to …

Droughtscape- Summer 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s Report ....................1

July 25 webinar: Drought management database, NIDIS update..................................... 2

Republican River Basin workshops July 31, August 1.......... 3

Summer climate outlook, spring summary ................................. 4

Spring impacts: wildfire, water, agriculture and business.........6

Data help managers assess Nebraska groundwater declines after drought of 2012........... 10

Tadesse helps Mexico with Veg- DRI concept..........................14

Visiting scholar explores remote sensing of drought in forests....... 15

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum photo recap, details online............ 16

Workshop helps New Mexico ranchers cope with drought ........... 18

Alabama’s new drought plan......... 19

National Drought Forum report........... 19

Drought Impacts Community of Practice report …

Rayleigh Lidar Temperature Studies In The Upper Mesosphere And Lower Thermosphere, Leda Sox, Vincent B. Wickwar, Joshua P. Herron, Matthew T. Emerick

Posters

Rayleigh lidar technology opened the middle atmosphere (from 30–90 km) to ground-based observations. The upgraded system at the Atmospheric Lidar Observatory (ALO) on the campus of Utah State University (41.74, 111.81) has shown that these ground-based observations can be extended to 109 km, with the goal of reaching 120 km. The resultant study of short and long-term temperature trends, using Rayleigh lidar, contributes immensely to the overall understanding of the properties and dominant physical processes in the middle atmosphere and Mesosphere-Lower Thermosphere (MLT) region. Temperature variations on short time scales, from minutes to days, give insight into the effects of …

Effect Of Continued Nitrogen Enrichment On Greenhouse Gas Emissions From A Wetland Ecosystem In The Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China: A 5 Year Nitrogen Addition Experiment, Changchun Song, Lili Wang, Hanqin Tian, Deyan Liu, Chaoqun (Crystal) Lu, Xiaofeng Xu, Lihua Zhang, Guisheng Yang, Zhongmei Wan

Chaoqun (Crystal) Lu

Mounting evidence supports that wetland ecosystems, one of the largest carbon pools on the earth, are exposed to ample nitrogen (N) additions due to atmospheric deposition or N loading from upstream agricultural fertilizer application. However, our understanding of how N enrichment affects the fluxes of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in wetlands is weak. A 5 year N addition experiment was conducted to examine the responses of CH4 and N2O fluxes as well as ecosystem respiration from wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China, through 2005 to 2009. Four levels of N addition (control, 0 kg N ha−1 yr−1; low-level, 60 kg …

Acting To Address The Ocean-Related Impacts Of Climate Change On Human And National Security, With Recommendations For Priority Actions Drawn From The Discussions Of The Global Conference On Oceans, Climate And Security At The University Of Massachusetts Boston, Robbin Peach, Felix Dodds, Michael Strauss, Collaborative Institute For Oceans, Climate And Security, University Of Massachusetts Boston

Collaborative Institute for Oceans, Climate and Security Publications

In the course of the past calendar year the United States has been struck by a series of droughts, tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, wildfires, and floods whose size and path of resulting damage defy previously established patterns. The U.S. thus joins nations on every continent that have increasingly experienced extreme and extremely damaging weather events over the past two decades.

At the same time, the world’s oceans have been exhibiting a less-visible but equally dangerous sequence of temperature rise, acidification increase, fish kills, coastal erosion, salinity shifts, algae blooms, and steady decreases in commercially available fish and shellfish species.

Those impacts …

The Effects Of Climate Science Literacy And Cultural Polarization Around Climate Change Risk Perception, Gabriel R. Young, Helen R. Neill

Graduate Research Symposium (GCUA) (2010 - 2017)

Science communicators have struggled to provide meaningful information about climate change due to the complex nature of the problem and the polarized political and media landscapes, and yet, a well informed public is a crucial element to both public acceptance and policy initiatives aimed at climate change mitigation. Current literature suggests that scientific literacy actually increases cultural polarization around the issue of climate change (Kahan, 2012). This study adds to the literature by testing the hypothesis that climate change risk perception is more heavily tied to climate science literacy than general science literacy when controlling for cultural worldviews. We use …

Droughtscape- Spring 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report........................................................................................................1

First quarter climate summary and outlook ........................................................... 2

Impacts: Crop indemnities set records in 2012; water conflicts escalating ............ 4

International meeting recommends countries have drought policies ..................... 8

NDMC plays key role in international drought policy meeting ............................. 9

EDEN and VOAD guide helps build community drought capacity.....................10

Svoboda, other experts and policymakers focus on food and water security.......11

New Mexico ranching workshop set for May 29 in Socorro ................................. 12

Ranch planning updates: archived webinars, new publications ........................... 12

Tune in to the US Drought Monitor Forum, April 16-18.....................................13

Archived webinar looks at using drought …

Leeside Boundary Layer Confluence And Afternoon Thunderstorms Over Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, Mark Jury, Sen Chiao

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

The midsummer boundary layer (BL) circulation and afternoon thunderstorm convection on the lee side of Puerto Rico is studied using observations and high-resolution models. Satellite infrared data help to identify cases on 5 and 14 June 2010 when midday surface temperatures show a 2°C gradient between land and sea and afternoon cloud-top temperatures <−60°C. Acoustic sounder profiles are analyzed for climatology, wind shear, turbulence, and diurnal cycles in the 40-300-m layer. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations indicate that sea-breeze flow is entrained into convective cells near Mayaguez, Puerto Rico. The simulated BL wind shear is too weak (0.5 × 10−2 s−1) in comparison with the acoustic sounder (2 × 10−2 s−1). Model 900-hPa winds are southeasterly and spread simulated convection too far north in comparison with radar. The pattern of near-surface winds in the island wake triggers afternoon thunderstorms near Mayaguez. A feature of the confluent circulation around Puerto Rico is opposing shear zones on the leeward corners of the island and a sea breeze of 5 m s−1 over the west coast during midday. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] . Copyright of Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.).

Evaluation Of Wrf-Sfire Performance With Field Observations From The Fireflux Experiment, A. Kochanski, M. Jenkins, J. Mandel, J. Beezley, Craig Clements, S. Krueger

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

This study uses in situ measurements collected during the FireFlux field experiment to evaluate and improve the performance of the coupled atmosphere–fire model WRF-SFIRE. The simulation by WRF-SFIRE of the experimental burn shows that WRF-SFIRE is capable of providing realistic head-fire rate of spread and vertical temperature structure of the fire plume, and fire-induced surface flow and vertical velocities within the plume up to 10 m above ground level. The simulation captured the changes in wind speed and direction before, during, and after fire front passage, along with the arrival times of wind speed, temperature, and updraft maxima, at the …

Kinematic Structure Of A Wildland Fire Plume Observed By Doppler Lidar, A. Charland, Craig Clements

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Wildland fires present a challenging environment to make meteorological measurements. Observations in the vicinity of wildland fires are needed to better understand fire-atmosphere interactions and to provide data for the evaluation of coupled fire-atmosphere models. An observational study was conducted during a low-intensity prescribed fire in an area of complex terrain with grass fuels east of San José, California. A ground-based scanning Doppler lidar acquired radial wind velocities and backscatter intensity in and around the fire plume from multiple horizontal and vertical scans. The development of a convergence zone was consistently observed to exist downwind of the plume and was …

Droughtscape- Winter 2013, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report...................................................................................1

Climatological overview of drought in 2012 ...................................... 2

Climatological overview of drought, Oct.-Dec. 2012.........................5

Impacts of drought in 2012 ................................................................. 6

Drought planning webinars scheduled for ranch advisors ..............10

UNL honors NDMC for exceptional service ...................................10

Report from the emerging community of drought planners ...........11

Feb. 6 webinar on drought simulations ............................................ 11

Climate Masters course starting ......................................................12

Climate Change in the Midwest book includes drought ................12

Video highlights from coverage of drought of 2012..........................13

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum 2013 .................................................. 13

UN’s High Level Meeting on National Drought Policy .................... 14

NDMC collaboration with India, Czech …

Rose: Roadmaps Towards Sustainable Energy Futures And Climate Protection: A Synthesis Of Results From The Rose Project, Elmar Kriegler, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Gunnar Luderer, Nico Bauer, Katherine Calvin, Enrica Decian, Robert J. Brecha, Wenying Chen, Aleh Cherp, Jae Edmonds, Kejun Jiang, Shonali Pachauri, Fabio Sferra, Massimo Tavoni, Ottmar Edenhofer

Physics Faculty Publications

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Exploring energy demand and supply uncertainty: An exploration of uncertainty on drivers of energy demand and supply is indispensable for better understanding the prospects of long-tern climate stabilization. The RoSE study is the first of its kind to systematically explore the impact of economic growth, population and fossil fuel scarcity, in scenarios with and without climate policy, using a model ensemble. A feature of RoSE is the participation of five established integrated assessment modelling teams from three important regions in international climate policy negotiations: the EU, the USA and China.

Economic growth: Neither slow nor rapid economic growth …

Metr 200: Weather And Climate—A Peer Review Of Teaching Project Benchmark Portfolio, Matthew S. Van Den Broeke

UNL Faculty Course Portfolios

This benchmark portfolio is meant to be an assessment of how well the objectives of METR 200 (Weather and Climate) are being attained by students in several classifications of academic major. Students from a wide range of backgrounds enroll in this course as a general science elective, and for many, it will be the only science course taken in college. Thus, it is important that course material be sufficiently accessible for all students, while providing meaningful information which will be applicable by students of all backgrounds once they leave the course. In this portfolio, an analysis will be presented showing …

Hydrocarbons In The Upper Troposphere And Lower Stratosphere Observed From Ace-Fts And Comparisons With Waccm, Mijeong Park, William J. Randel, Douglas E. Kinnison, Louisa K. Emmons, Peter F. Bernath, Kaley A. Walker, Chris D. Boone, Nathaniel J. Livesey

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

Satellite measurements from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) are used to examine the global, seasonal variations of several hydrocarbons, including carbon monoxide (CO), ethane (C₂H₆), acetylene (C₂H₂), and hydrogen cyanide (HCN). We focus on quantifying large-scale seasonal behavior from the middle troposphere to the stratosphere, particularly in the tropics, and furthermore make detailed comparisons with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) chemistry climate model (incorporating tropospheric photochemistry, time-varying hydrocarbon emissions, and meteorological fields nudged from reanalysis). Comparisons with Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements of CO are also included …

The Relation Between Atmospheric Humidity And Temperature Trends For Stratospheric Water, S. Fueglistaler, Y. S. Liu, T. J. Flannaghan, P. H. Haynes, D. P. Dee, W. J. Read, E. E. Remsberg, L. W. Thomason, D. F. Hurst, J. R. Lanzante, P. F. Bernath

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

We analyze the relation between atmospheric temperature and water vapor-a fundamental component of the global climate system-for stratospheric water vapor (SWV). We compare measurements of SWV (and methane where available) over the period 1980-2011 from NOAA balloon-borne frostpoint hygrometer (NOAA-FPH), SAGE II, Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS)/Aura, and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) to model predictions based on troposphere-to-stratosphere transport from ERA-Interim, and temperatures from ERA-Interim, Modern Era Retrospective- Analysis (MERRA), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC), HadAT2, and RICHv1.5. All model predictions are dry biased. The interannual …

Black Carbon Measurements Of Snow And Ice Using The Single Particle Soot Photometer: Method Development And An Ad 1852-1999 Record Of Atmospheric Black Carbon From A Mount Logan Ice Core, James Andrew Menking

All Master's Theses

Black carbon (BC), produced by the combustion of fossil and biofuels, warms the climate by absorbing solar radiation when in the atmosphere and by reducing the albedo of snow and ice when deposited. Measuring BC in snow and ice is important for estimating albedo reduction and developing historical records of BC concentration. Experiments were conducted to further develop a method for measuring BC in snow and ice using the Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2). Results suggest the optimal procedures for sample storage, treatment, and nebulization, and analysis and calibration of BC concentrations measured using the SP2 coupled to a CETAC …

Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions From A Waste Lagoon, Arturo I. Quintanar, Rezaul Mamood, Nanh Lovanh, Justin M. Rawley, Evi Becerra-Acosta, John H. Loughrin

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

A cost-effective approach was used to investigate the relationship between emission of the greenhouse gases (GHG), namely, CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O and energy fluxes from a swine waste lagoon. Energy fluxes were calculated using the Penman method. The energy fluxes showed a diurnal pattern as expected of such fluxes. We found that air temperature and latent energy, lagoon surface temperature and solar radiation, as well as air temperature and wind speed can be used to predict for CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O emissions, respectively. Comparison of observed and predicted …

Climate Change: What Does It Mean For Nebraska?, Martha D. Shulski, Natalie A. Umphlett, Tapan B. Pathak, Kenneth G. Hubbard

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

Because Nebraska’s location on the North American continent is far removed from large bodies of water, Nebraskans experience a strong continental type climate. As such, residents do not benefit from the moderating influence of the ocean, and temperatures can have wide swings from day to day and season to season. Typical characteristics for a continental climate at this latitude are large temperature variability with warm summers dominated by convective thunderstorms, and cold winters influenced by snow and wind from mid-latitude cyclones.

Regional Climate Trends And Scenarios For The U.S. National Climate Assessment Part 4. Climate Of The U.S. Great Plains, Kenneth E. Kunkel, Laura E. Stevens, Scott E. Stevens, Liqiang Sun, Emily Janssen, Donald Wuebbles, Michael C. Kruk, Devin Thomas, Martha Shulski, Natalie A. Umphlett, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Kevin Robbins, Luigi Romolo, Adnan Akyuz, Tapan B. Pathak, Tony R. Bergantino, J. Greg Dobson

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

This document is one of series of regional climate descriptions designed to provide input that can be used in the development of the National Climate Assessment (NCA). As part of a sustained assessment approach, it is intended that these documents will be updated as new and well-vetted model results are available and as new climate scenario needs become clear. It is also hoped that these documents (and associated data and resources) are of direct benefit to decision makers and communities seeking to use this information in developing adaptation plans.

There are nine reports in this series, one each for eight …