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Full-Text Articles in Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Seasonal Variability And Predictability Of Monsoon Precipitation In Southern Africa, Matthew F. Horan, Fred Kucharski, Moetasim Ashfaq
Seasonal Variability And Predictability Of Monsoon Precipitation In Southern Africa, Matthew F. Horan, Fred Kucharski, Moetasim Ashfaq
Faculty Publications
Rainfed agriculture is the mainstay of economies across Southern Africa (SA), where most precipitation is received during the austral summer monsoon. This study aims to further our understanding of monsoon precipitation predictability over SA. We use three natural climate forcings, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Indian Ocean Precipitation Dipole (IOPD)—the dominant precipitation variability mode—to construct an empirical model that exhibits significant skill over SA during monsoon in explaining precipitation variability and in forecasting it with a five-month lead. While most explained precipitation variance (50%–75%) comes from contemporaneous IOD and IOPD, preconditioning all three forcings is key …
Climate Change Risk To Coastal Airfield Stormwater Systems, Jedidiah R. Langlois
Climate Change Risk To Coastal Airfield Stormwater Systems, Jedidiah R. Langlois
Theses and Dissertations
Climate change is resulting in rising sea levels and increased rainfall, posing new challenges to stormwater management, particularly along coastlines. The airfield stormwater systems of Tyndall Air Force Base discharge directly into an interior bay of the Gulf of Mexico through tidal canals and ditches, creating a risk of system inundation from high tidewater conditions from sea-level rise (SLR). This study explores the performance and consequences of an inundated stormwater system from SLR during rainfall events using the EPA’s Stormwater Management Model (SWMM). One hundred and fifty-three combinations of SLR and return year storms were applied to a model of …