Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Seasonal Variability And Predictability Of Monsoon Precipitation In Southern Africa, Matthew F. Horan, Fred Kucharski, Moetasim Ashfaq

Faculty Publications

Rainfed agriculture is the mainstay of economies across Southern Africa (SA), where most precipitation is received during the austral summer monsoon. This study aims to further our understanding of monsoon precipitation predictability over SA. We use three natural climate forcings, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Indian Ocean Precipitation Dipole (IOPD)—the dominant precipitation variability mode—to construct an empirical model that exhibits significant skill over SA during monsoon in explaining precipitation variability and in forecasting it with a five-month lead. While most explained precipitation variance (50%–75%) comes from contemporaneous IOD and IOPD, preconditioning all three forcings is key …

Editorial: Observations And Simulations Of Layering Phenomena In The Middle/Upper Atmosphere And Ionosphere, Bingkun Yu, Xuguang Cai, Daniel J. Emmons Ii, Chong Wang And Jianfei Wu

Faculty Publications

The middle/upper atmosphere and ionosphere are the transition between neutral and ionized components of the Earth’s atmosphere, including stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere, ionospheric E region and ionospheric F region (Laštovička et al., 2006; Xu, et al., 2007; Smith, 2012). The atmospheric thermal structure and composition are significantly affected by dynamical processes through coupling. The layering phenomena such as mesospheric metal layers, sporadic E layers, and noctilucent clouds are important tracers to study mechanisms of the vertical coupling from the lower to the upper atmosphere (Dou et al., 2010; Plane, 2012; Xue et al., 2013).

Lightning Forecast From Chaotic And Incomplete Time Series Using Wavelet De-Noising And Spatiotemporal Kriging, Jared K. Nystrom, Raymond Hill, Andrew J. Geyer, Joseph J. Pignatiello Jr., Eric Chicken

Faculty Publications

Purpose: Present a method to impute missing data from a chaotic time series, in this case lightning prediction data, and then use that completed dataset to create lightning prediction forecasts.

Design/Methodology/Approach: Using the technique of spatiotemporal kriging to estimate data that is autocorrelated but in space and time. Using the estimated data in an imputation methodology completes a dataset used in lighting prediction.

Findings: The techniques provided prove robust to the chaotic nature of the data, and the resulting time series displays evidence of smoothing while also preserving the signal of interest for lightning prediction.

Abstract © Emerald Publishing …

Optimal Estimation Inversion Of Ionospheric Electron Density From Gnss-Pod Limb Measurements: Part I-Algorithm And Morphology, Dong L. Wu, Nimalan Swarnalingam, Cornelius Csar Jude H. Salina, Daniel J. Emmons, Tyler C. Summers, Robert Gardiner-Garden

Faculty Publications

GNSS-LEO radio links from Precise Orbital Determination (POD) and Radio Occultation (RO) antennas have been used increasingly in characterizing the global 3D distribution and variability of ionospheric electron density (Ne). In this study, we developed an optimal estimation (OE) method to retrieve Ne profiles from the slant total electron content (hTEC) measurements acquired by the GNSS-POD links at negative elevation angles (ε < 0°). Although both OE and onion-peeling (OP) methods use the Abel weighting function in the Ne inversion, they are significantly different in terms of performance in the lower ionosphere. The new OE results can overcome the large Ne oscillations, sometimes negative values, seen in the OP retrievals in the E-region ionosphere. In the companion paper in this Special Issue, the HmF2 and NmF2 from the OE retrieval are validated against ground-based ionosondes and radar observations, showing generally good agreements in NmF2 from all sites. Nighttime hmF2 measurements tend to agree better than the daytime when the ionosonde heights tend to be slightly lower. The OE algorithm has been applied to all GNSS-POD data acquired from the COSMIC-1 (2006–2019), COSMIC-2 (2019–present), and Spire (2019–present) constellations, showing a consistent ionospheric Ne morphology. The unprecedented spatiotemporal sampling of the ionosphere from these constellations now allows a detailed analysis of the frequency–wavenumber spectra for the Ne variability at different heights. In the lower ionosphere (~150 km), we found significant spectral power in DE1, DW6, DW4, SW5, and SE4 wave components, in addition to well-known DW1, SW2, and DE3 waves. In the upper ionosphere (~450 km), additional wave components are still present, including DE4, DW4, DW6, SE4, and SW4. The co-existence of eastward- and westward-propagating wave4 components implies the presence of a stationary wave4 (SPW4), as suggested by other earlier studies. Further improvements to the OE method are proposed, including a tomographic inversion technique that leverages the asymmetric sampling about the tangent point associated with GNSS-LEO links.

Atmospheric Meteorological Effects On Forecasting Daily Lightning Occurrence At Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Jon Saul [*], Torrey J. Wagner, Eric G. Mbonimpa, Brent T. Langhals

Faculty Publications

As the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and Kennedy Space Center increase their launch rate, any process that could assist in the automation of the currently-manual lightning forecast would be valuable. This work examines the possibility of machine-learning assistance with the daily lighting forecast which is produced by the 45th Weather Squadron. A dataset consisting of 34 lightning, pressure, temperature and windspeed measurements taken from 334 daily weather balloon (rawinsonde) launches in the timeframe 2012-2021 was examined. Models were created using recursive feature elimination on logistic regression and XGClassifier algorithms, as well as Bayesian and bandit optimization of neural network …

The Behavior Of Partially Coherent Twisted Space-Time Beams In Atmospheric Turbulence, Milo W. Hyde Iv

Faculty Publications

We study how atmospheric turbulence affects twisted space-time beams, which are non-stationary random optical fields whose space and time dimensions are coupled with a stochastic twist. Applying the extended Huygens–Fresnel principle, we derive the mutual coherence function of a twisted space-time beam after propagating a distance z through atmospheric turbulence of arbitrary strength. We specialize the result to derive the ensemble-averaged irradiance and discuss how turbulence affects the beam’s spatial size, pulse width, and space-time twist. Lastly, we generate, in simulation, twisted space-time beam field realizations and propagate them through atmospheric phase screens to validate our analysis.

A Statistical Analysis Of Sporadic-E Characteristics Associated With Gnss Radio Occultation Phase And Amplitude Scintillations, Daniel J. Emmons, Dong L. Wu, Nimalan Swarnalingam

Faculty Publications

Statistical GNSS-RO measurements of phase and amplitude scintillation are analyzed at the mid-latitudes in the local summer for a 100 km altitude. These conditions are known to contain frequent sporadic-E, and the S4-σ_ϕ trends provide insight into the statistical distributions of the sporadic-E parameters. Joint two-dimensional S4-σ_ϕ histograms are presented, showing roughly linear trends until the S4 saturates near 0.8. To interpret the measurements and understand the sporadic-E contributions, 10,000 simulations of RO signals perturbed by sporadic-E layers are performed using length, intensity, and vertical thickness distributions from previous studies, with the assumption that the sporadic-E layer acts …

Long-Distance Propagation Of 162 Mhz Shipping Information Links Associated With Sporadic E, Alex T. Chartier, Thomas R. Hanley, Daniel J. Emmons

Faculty Publications

This is a study of anomalous long-distance (>1000 km) radio propagation that was identified in United States Coast Guard monitors of automatic identification system (AIS) shipping transmissions at 162 MHz. Our results indicate this long-distance propagation is caused by dense sporadic E layers in the daytime ionosphere, which were observed by nearby ionosondes at the same time. This finding is surprising because it indicates these sporadic E layers may be far more dense than previously thought.

Improving On Atmospheric Turbulence Profiles Derived From Dual Beacon Hartmann Turbulence Sensor Measurements, Alexander S. Boeckenstedt, Jack E. Mccrae, Santasri Bose-Pillai, Benjamin Wilson

Faculty Publications

Atmospheric turbulence is an inevitable source of wavefront distortion in all fields of long range laser propagation and sensing. However, the distorting effects of turbulence can be corrected using wavefront sensors contained in adaptive optics systems. Such systems also provide deeper insight into surface layer turbulence, which is not well understood. A unique method of profile generation by a dual source Hartmann Turbulence Sensor (HTS) technique is introduced here. Measurements of optical turbulence along a horizontal path were taken to create C2n profiles. Two helium-neon laser beams were directed over an inhomogeneous horizontal path and captured by the HTS. The …

Feasibility Of Obtaining Surface Layer Moisture Flux Using An Ir Thermometer, Steven T. Fiorino, Lance Todorowski, Jaclyn Schmidt, Yogendra Raut, Jacob Margraf

Faculty Publications

This paper evaluates the feasibility of a method using a single hand-held infrared (IR) thermometer and a mini tower of wet and dry paper towels to psychometrically obtain surface layer temperature and moisture gradients and fluxes. Sling Psychrometers have long been standard measuring devices for quantifying the thermodynamics of near-surface atmospheric gas–vapor mixtures, specifically moisture parameters. However, these devices are generally only used to measure temperature and humidity at one near-surface level. Multiple self-aspirating psychrometers can be used in a vertical configuration to measure temperature and moisture gradients and fluxes in the first 1–2 m of the surface layer. This …

Global Gnss-Ro Electron Density In The Lower Ionosphere, Dong L. Wu, Daniel J. Emmons Ii, Nimalan Swarnalingam

Faculty Publications

Lack of instrument sensitivity to low electron density (N_e) concentration makes it difficult to measure sharp N_e vertical gradients (four orders of magnitude over 30 km) in the D/E-region. A robust algorithm is developed to retrieve global D/E-region N_e from the high-rate GNSS radio occultation (RO) data, to improve spatiotemporal coverage using recent SmallSat/CubeSat constellations. The new algorithm removes F-region contributions in the RO excess phase profile by fitting a linear function to the data below the D-region. The new GNSS-RO observations reveal many interesting features in the diurnal, seasonal, solar-cycle, and magnetic-field-dependent variations in the …

A Post-Disaster Construction Portfolio Optimization Framework For Tyndall Afb Rebuild Post Hurricane Michael, Andre J. May

Theses and Dissertations

Natural disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis, and extreme flooding cause severe social and economic disruptions. Restoration of social and revenue-generating services often requires extensive reconstruction, from the facility to the campus scale. For multi-facility portfolios, decision-makers must prioritize post-disaster reconstruction activities appropriately to ensure facilities and infrastructure are restored. In addition, any expansion or new construction initiatives are ideally completed in order of decision-maker and community preference. Most post-disaster optimization and decision framework research consider a single stakeholder as guiding decisions related to a project portfolio. However, these portfolio prioritization frameworks ignore the effect of multiple stakeholders and competing …

Feasibility Of Fireball Trail Detection Using Ground-Based Gps Receivers, Ian R. Moffett

Theses and Dissertations

The feasibility of using GPS data to detect fireballs is analyzed by first modeling the fireball’s trail diffusion and plasma chemistry to get a resulting ion density profile of the trail over time. The signal perturbation caused by the fireball trail is simulated for a ground receiver using an analytic solution for diffraction from a Gaussian lens. Five cases were modeled with varying initial peak ion densities and altitudes taken from fireball and reentry vehicle data. This paper shows that it is feasible to detect a fireball trail using GPS if the fireball has a sufficiently high initial ion density, …

Applications Of A Lightning Proxy To Generate Synthetic Lightning For Use In Physics-Based Image-Chain Models, Bryan G. Castro

Theses and Dissertations

A method of generating synthetic lightning through the use of a convective available potential energy (CAPE) times precipitation rate (P) proxy is applied over three distinct climatological zones of the world for a single warm season: central and southern AZ of the United States, central Cuba, and North Korea. Global Forecast System (GFS) 0.25° by 0.25° forecast data for June, July, and August of 2019 is used to provide 6-hourly CAPE and precipitation rate, while Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) data for the period 2016 to 2020 is used to provide observed lightning strokes. A five-year lightning climatology study is conducted …

Global Sporadic-E Climatological Analysis Using Gps Radio Occultation And Ionosonde Data, Travis J. Hodos

Theses and Dissertations

A climatology of sporadic-E (Es) derived from a combined data set of GPS radio occultation (GPS-RO) and ground-based ionosonde soundings is presented for the period from September 2006 to February 2019. The ionosonde soundings were measured using the Lowell Digisonde International (LDI) Global Ionosphere Radio Observatory (GIRO) network consisting of 65 sites and 13,141,060 total soundings. The GPS-RO observations were taken aboard the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) satellites and processed using two binary Es detection algorithms, totaling 9,072,922 occultations. The first algorithm is an S4 amplitude threshold calibrated to the occurrence of any blanketing Es …

A Critical Review Of Climate Change On Coastal Infrastructure Systems, Gregory J. Howland Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis is a response to climate threats identified by DoD report on Climate Change in 2019. A critical review of climate change literature related to coastal infrastructure was conducted to synthesize past research and to inform future research. This review intends to inform how climate change may impact infrastructure systems, how those impacts are evaluated, can the investigation be improved, and what can stakeholders learn from the outcomes. The end goal is to find climate change mitigation strategies and adaptation measures, or identify the easiest path to get to that end. The compiled information will inform civilian and military …

Carbon Estimation And Decision Making In Usaf Acquisition, Robert F. Gray

Theses and Dissertations

Recent executive orders and international agreements require the United States to significantly reduce its carbon and greenhouse gas emissions. The DoD is a significant contributor to the carbon emissions of the USA and will be required to reduce the emissions. Therefore, in order to make appropriate programmatic decisions the DoD needs to develop an appropriate method for estimating carbon and making programmatic decisions; trading-off carbon emissions with the traditional cost-schedule-performance metrics. This thesis examines the possibility of developing a model that can be used to estimate the carbon footprint of producing a system before detailed engineering designed have been complete.

Climate Change Risk To Coastal Airfield Stormwater Systems, Jedidiah R. Langlois

Theses and Dissertations

Climate change is resulting in rising sea levels and increased rainfall, posing new challenges to stormwater management, particularly along coastlines. The airfield stormwater systems of Tyndall Air Force Base discharge directly into an interior bay of the Gulf of Mexico through tidal canals and ditches, creating a risk of system inundation from high tidewater conditions from sea-level rise (SLR). This study explores the performance and consequences of an inundated stormwater system from SLR during rainfall events using the EPA’s Stormwater Management Model (SWMM). One hundred and fifty-three combinations of SLR and return year storms were applied to a model of …

Natural Infrastructure Alternatives Mitigate Hurricane-Driven Flood Vulnerability: Application To Tyndall Air Force Base, Kiara L. Vance

Theses and Dissertations

Hurricane frequency and magnitude intensification are expected over the remainder of the twenty-first century. Uncertainty in future projections requires that coastal communities approach adaptation decisions with caution. Traditional approaches are costly and inflexible. Soft policy adaptations are largely unenforceable. Hard, natural adaptations have emerged as an opportunity to partially mitigate the growing risk of extreme flooding, without the large investments required for traditional approaches, where natural infrastructure already exists. Existing literature for natural adaptations has not leveraged intensification expectations for hurricane events. This research uses multihazard damage evaluation software and spatial analysis to investigate placement of dredged sediment as a …

Intercomparison Of Four Microphysics Schemes In Simulating Persistent Arctic Mixed-Phase Stratocumulus Clouds, Zachary A. Cleveland

Theses and Dissertations

Persistent Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus clouds (AMPS) are important to the surface radiation budget of the Arctic. Their presence produces warming within the boundary layer and at the surface and inaccurately forecasting AMPS can lead to large, erroneous temperature forecasts. A Large Eddy Simulation of a case study of a persistent AMPS cloud was conducted using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The case examined occurred near Oliktok Point, AK between 26 and 27 April, 2017. The produced cloud pattern and properties of four different microphysics schemes -- P3, Thompson, Morrison, and WSM6 -- are compared to observations. …

A Framework For Assessing Facility-Level Vulnerability And Risk To Extreme Weather Events, Blake A. Gawlik

Theses and Dissertations

Intensifying extreme weather events, tied to the rise in the global average temperature, put global built infrastructure at risk. This presents a daunting challenge for organizational leaders who are tasked to determine how best to adapt current infrastructure to uncertain future events. To develop adaptation plans and policies, vulnerability and risk must be downscaled to an actionable scale, such that planners, designers, and engineers can make adaptation recommendations. However, previous research has largely assessed risk at coarser scales, e.g., regional, national, or global. These assessments are informative, but do not help those tasked to lead adaptation to make detailed, actionable …

The Impacts Of Climate Uncertainty On Streamflow In Andes, Antioquia, Colombia, Kristen R. Roberts

Theses and Dissertations

Natural hazards, such as hurricanes, wildfires, floods, and droughts impact human systems that rely on predictable patterns in the natural elements with which they interact. Skillful prediction of the impacts of climate change on linked, human-natural systems, like surface water resources, can help ensure physical risks within vulnerable communities are mitigated, resource sustainability is maximized, and intersectoral markets continue to contribute to socioeconomic stability. Due to water resources being a primary conduit through which climate uncertainty impacts people, economies, and ecosystems, its study is worthy of investigation; particularly, where those resources are uncertain and demanded by a variety of competitive …

Burn Probability And Climate Change: A Quantitative Evaluation Of The Temporal Alterations Of Wildfire, David N. Robinson

Theses and Dissertations

The intensity of extreme weather events, specifically wildfires, along the West Coast has slowly grown overtime due to atmospheric changes caused by climate change. The Air Force, though aware of the threat that is wildfire, does not currently have a quantitative way to assess the hazard to base locations. In this paper, burn probability is quantitatively calculated through the geospatial analysis programs to provide a means of assessing wildfire vulnerability. The FlamMap fire simulator generated burn probabilities for Vandenberg Air Force Base using climate data generated by the remote automated weather station on the base to highlight how the burn …

A Comparison Of Sporadic-E Occurrence Rates Using Gps Radio Occultation And Ionosonde Measurements, Rodney Carmona, Omar A. Nava, Eugene V. Dao, Daniel J. Emmons

Faculty Publications

Sporadic-E (E_s) occurrence rates from Global Position Satellite radio occultation (GPS-RO) measurements have shown to vary by a factor of five between studies, motivating the need for a comparison with ground-based measurements. In an attempt to find accurate GPS-RO techniques for detecting E_s formation, occurrence rates derived using five previously developed GPS-RO techniques are compared to ionosonde measurements over an eight-year period from 2010–2017. GPS-RO measurements within 170 km of a ionosonde site are used to calculate E_s occurrence rates and compared to the ground-truth ionosonde measurements. The techniques are compared individually for each ionosonde site …

Effect Of Trigonometric Transformations On The Machine Learning Prediction And Quality Control Of Air Temperature, Andrea Fenoglio [*], Torrey J. Wagner, Paul Auclair, Brent T. Langhals

Faculty Publications

Conducting effective quality control of weather observations in real time is vital to the 14th Weather Squadron’s mission of providing authoritative climate data. This study explored automated quality control of weather observations by applying multiple machine learning techniques to 43,487 surface weather observations from 5 years of data at a single location. Temperature predictors were evaluated using recursive feature elimination on linear regression and XGBoost algorithms, as well as using a neural network hyperparameter sweep. Modeling was repeated after calculating trigonometric transforms of temporal variables to give the models insight into the diurnal heating cycle of the Earth. All models …

Comparison Of Seasonal Foes And Fbes Occurrence Rates Derived From Global Digisonde Measurements, Dawn K. Merriman, Omar A. Nava, Eugene V. Dao, Daniel J. Emmons Ii

Faculty Publications

A global climatology of sporadic-E occurrence rates (ORs) based on ionosonde measurements is presented for the peak blanketing frequency, fbEs, and the ordinary mode peak frequency of the layer, foEs. ORs are calculated for a variety of sporadic-E frequency thresholds: no lower limit, 3, 5, and 7 MHz. Seasonal rates are calculated from 64 Digisonde sites during the period 2006–2020 using ionograms either manually or automatically scaled with ARTIST-5. Both foEs and fbEs ORs peak in the Northern Hemisphere during the boreal summer, with a decrease by roughly a factor of 2–3 in fbEs rates relative to foEs rates without …

Ionospheric F-Layer Dipole Flute Instability Effects On Electromagnetic Scattering In A Magnetohydrodynamic Plasma, Andrew J. Knisely

Theses and Dissertations

The ionosphere has significant impact on radio frequency (RF) applications such as satellites, over-the-horizon radar, and commercial communication systems. The dynamic processes effecting the behavior of the ionic content leads to a variety of instabilities that adversely affect the quality of RF signals. In the F-layer ionosphere, flute instability persists, appearing as two radial regions of high and low density perturbations elongated along the earth's geomagnetic field lines. The sizes of flute structures are comparable to the wavelengths in the high frequency spectrum. The objective is to characterize the high frequency scattering of an incident field by developing a 3D …

Relationship Between Solar Energetic Particle He/H Abundance Ratios And Properties Of Flares And Cmes, Christopher R. Davidson

Theses and Dissertations

Previous studies have investigated the He/H elemental abundance ratios of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) Events of energies above 4 MeV. Also, studies have investigated the correlations between SEPs, Coronal Mass Ejections (CME), and Solar Flares. This work finds the correlations between the >4 MeV He/H abundance ratios and the solar parameters from the SEP, CME, and solar flare associated with the abundance increases. 43 SEP events located at solar west longitude are analyzed to find the correlation coefficients. Highly significant correlation was found between the He/H abundance ratios and the following parameters: solar flare flux, solar flare fluence, CME linear …

Deep Learning For Weather Clustering And Forecasting, Nathaniel R. Beveridge

Theses and Dissertations

Clustering weather data is a valuable endeavor in multiple respects. The results can be used in various ways within a larger weather prediction framework or could simply serve as an analytical tool for characterizing climatic differences of a particular region of interest. This research proposes a methodology for clustering geographic locations based on the similarity in shape of their temperature time series over a long time horizon of approximately 11 months. To this end an emerging and powerful class of clustering techniques that leverages deep learning, called deep representation clustering (DRC), are utilized. Moreover, a time series specific DRC algorithm …

Development And Verification Of Extreme Space Weather Phenomena Models, Sophia G. Schwalbe

Theses and Dissertations

A range of 14 M-class flares from 1 June 2015 to 27 September 2016 were analyzed to find significant trends in electron frequency profile modeling using the GLobal airglOW (GLOW) model and radar parameters using a ray tracing algorithm developed by the Air Force Research Laboratory. GLOW was run for all the flares using three different solar spectrum schemes and an average of the three: the Hinteregger method, EUV flux model for aeronomic calculations (EUVAC), and a rebinned Flare Irradiance Spectrum Model (FISM) result. Comparing data for the E-layer where GLOW is most accurate, it was determined that GLOW using …