Mathematics Commons^™

A Study Of Decision Analysis Methods In Aerospace Technology Assessments, Sharon Monica Jones

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Managers of aerospace technology programs and projects are faced with the challenge of making technology portfolio decisions under conditions of limited data, rapidly changing macro level factors and organizational uncertainties. To help make these technology investment decisions, some aerospace managers and analysts have used techniques from the field of decision analysis. In addition, there have been a limited number of research studies of real decision problems.

This dissertation presents the results of a non-experimental examination of the use of decision analysis methods for the assessment of aerospace technology portfolios. A web-based survey instrument was developed based on the results of …

State-Based Reconstructability Modeling For Decision Analysis, Michael S. Johnson, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Reconstructability analysis (RA) is a method for detecting and analyzing the structure of multivariate categorical data. Jones and his colleagues extended the original variable-based formulation of RA to encompass models defined in terms of system states (Jones 1982; Jones 1985; Jones 1985; Jones 1986; Jones 1989). In this paper, we demonstrate that Jones’ previous work comprises two separable ideas: the “g to k” transformation and state-based modeling. We relate the concept of state-based modeling to established variable-based RA methods (Klir 1985; Krippendorff 1986), and demonstrate that statebased modeling, when applied to event and decision tree models, is a valuable adjunct …

Complexity Reduction In State-Based Modeling, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

For a system described by a relation among qualitative variables (or quantitative variables "binned" into symbolic states), expressed either set-theoretically or as a multivariate joint probability distribution, complexity reduction (compression of representation) is normally achieved by modeling the system with projections of the overall relation. To illustrate, if ABCD is a four variable relation, then models ABC:BCD or AB:BC:CD:DA, specified by two triadic or four dyadic relations, respectively, represent simplifications of the ABCD relation. Simplifications which are lossless are always preferred over the original full relation, while simplifications which lose constraint are still preferred if the reduction of complexity more …