Sustainability Commons^™

The Carbon Rent Economics Of Climate Policy, Matthias Kalkuhl, Robert J. Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

By reducing the demand for fossil fuels, climate policy can reduce scarcity rents for fossil resource owners. As mitigation policies ultimately aim to limit emissions, a new scarcity for “space” in the atmosphere to deposit emissions is created. The associated scarcity rent, or climate rent (that is, for example, directly visible in permit prices under an emission trading scheme) can be higher or lower than the original fossil resource rent. In this paper, we analyze analytically and numerically the impact of mitigation targets, resource availability, backstop costs, discount rates and demand parameters on fossil resource rents and the climate rent. …

Development Without Energy? Assessing Future Scenarios Of Energy Consumption In Developing Countries, Jan Christof Steckel, Robert J. Brecha, Michael Jakob, Jessica Strefler, Gunnar Luderer

Physics Faculty Publications

We analyze the relationship between economic development and energy consumption in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation. The main contribution of this work is to compare estimates of energy thresholds in the form of minimum energy requirements to reach high levels of development with output projections of per capita final energy supply from a group of integrated assessment models (IAMs). Scenarios project that reductions of carbon emissions in developing countries will be achieved not only by means of decreasing the carbon intensity, but also by making a significant break with the historically observed relationship between energy use and economic growth. …

Ten Reasons To Take Peak Oil Seriously, Robert Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

Forty years ago, the results of modeling, as presented in The Limits to Growth, reinvigorated a discussion about exponentially growing consumption of natural resources, ranging from metals to fossil fuels to atmospheric capacity, and how such consumption could not continue far into the future. Fifteen years earlier, M. King Hubbert had made the projection that petroleum production in the continental United States would likely reach a maximum around 1970, followed by a world production maximum a few decades later. The debate about “peak oil," as it has come to be called, is accompanied by some of the same vociferous …

Rose: Roadmaps Towards Sustainable Energy Futures And Climate Protection: A Synthesis Of Results From The Rose Project, Elmar Kriegler, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Gunnar Luderer, Nico Bauer, Katherine Calvin, Enrica Decian, Robert J. Brecha, Wenying Chen, Aleh Cherp, Jae Edmonds, Kejun Jiang, Shonali Pachauri, Fabio Sferra, Massimo Tavoni, Ottmar Edenhofer

Physics Faculty Publications

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Exploring energy demand and supply uncertainty: An exploration of uncertainty on drivers of energy demand and supply is indispensable for better understanding the prospects of long-tern climate stabilization. The RoSE study is the first of its kind to systematically explore the impact of economic growth, population and fossil fuel scarcity, in scenarios with and without climate policy, using a model ensemble. A feature of RoSE is the participation of five established integrated assessment modelling teams from three important regions in international climate policy negotiations: the EU, the USA and China.

Economic growth: Neither slow nor rapid economic growth …

Economics Of Nuclear Power And Climate Change Mitigation Policies, Nico Bauer, Robert J. Brecha, Gunnar Luderer

Physics Faculty Publications

The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive …

Variable Renewable Energy In Modeling Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios, Falko Ueckerdt, Robert J. Brecha, Gunnar Luderer, Patrick Sullivan, Eva Schmid, Nico Bauer, Diana Böttger

Physics Faculty Publications

This paper addresses the issue of how to account for short‐term temporal variability of renewable energy sources and power demand in long‐term climate change mitigation scenarios in energy‐economic models. An approach that captures in a stylized way the major challenges to the integration of variable renewable energy sources into power systems has been developed. As a first application this approach has been introduced to REMIND‐D, a hybrid energy‐economy model of Germany. An approximation of the residual load duration curve is implemented. The approximating function endogenously changes depending on the penetration and mix of variable renewable power. The approach can thus …

Prioritizing Investment In Residential Energy Efficiency And Renewable Energy: A Case Study For The U.S. Midwest, Robert J. Brecha, Austin Mitchell, Kevin P. Hallinan, J. Kelly Kissock

Physics Faculty Publications

Residential building energy use is an important contributor to greenhouse gas emissions and in the United States represents about 20% of total energy consumption. A number of previous macro-scale studies of residential energy consumption and energy-efficiency improvements are mainly concerned with national or international aggregate potential savings. In this paper we look into the details of how a collection of specific homes in one region might reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions, with particular attention given to some practical limits to what can be achieved by upgrading the existing residential building stock. Using a simple model of residential, single-family home …

Establishing Building Recommissioning Priorities And Potential Energy Savings From Utility Energy Data, Kevin P. Hallinan, Philip Brodrick, Jessica Northridge, J. Kelly Kissock, Robert J. Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

An energy reduction program for commercial buildings is implemented for a SW Ohio natural gas utility. The aim of this study is to demonstrate that historical utility data for individual building customers, along with knowledge of pertinent building information (square footage, year built, number of floors, height of floors, wall construction type, and use type) available in county auditor databases, could be used to identify the best candidate buildings for recommissioning in terms of energy savings and simple payback. A study is completed for all natural gas customers of a utility in Montgomery and Clinton counties in Ohio. A total …

Renewable Energy In The Context Of Sustainable Development, Jayant Sathaye, Oswaldo Lucon, Atiq Rahman, John Christensen, Fatima Denton, Junichi Fujino, Garvin Heath, Monirul Mirza, Hugh Rudnick, August Schlaepfer, Andrey Shmakin, Gerhard Angerer, Christian Bauer, Morgan Bazilian, Robert J. Brecha, Peter Burgherr, Leon Clarke, Felix Creutzig, James Edmonds, Christian Hagelüken, Gerrit Hansen, Nathan Hultman, Michael Jakob, Susanne Kadner, Manfred Lenzen, Jordan Macknick, Eric Masanet, Yu Nagai, Anne Olhoff, Karen Olsen, Michael Pahle, Ari Rabl, Richard Richels, Joyashree Roy, Tormod Schei, Christoph Von Stechow, Jan Christoph Steckel, Ethan Warner, Tom Wilbanks, Yimin Zhang

Physics Faculty Publications

Historically, economic development has been strongly correlated with increasing energy use and growth of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Renewable energy (RE) can help decouple that correlation, contributing to sustainable development (SD). In addition, RE offers the opportunity to improve access to modern energy services for the poorest members of society, which is crucial for the achievement of any single of the eight Millennium Development Goals.

Theoretical concepts of SD can provide useful frameworks to assess the interactions between SD and RE. SD addresses concerns about relationships between human society and nature. Traditionally, SD has been framed in the three-pillar model—Economy, …

Wind Energy Potential For Reverse Osmosis Desalination Plants In La Guajira, Colombia, Carlos Martinez-Smit

Faculty-Selected Student Works

Project report required by the Master of Science Degree in Renewable and Clean Energy.

Abstract:

The region of La Guajira, located in the north of Colombia, has a lot of potential for wind power with annual average wind speeds up to 11 m/s at 10 m height in some locations, according to the national wind map. Most of the wind potential is located in Upper Guajira, where 90% of the population is indigenous Wayuu people (among the country’s poorest population) and it is also characterized with low precipitation, 500 mm/yr, high evapotranspiration, 1500 mm/yr, and low humidity. All this creates …

Emissions Scenarios In The Face Of Fossil-Fuel Peaking, Robert J. Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. We propose in this paper that it is useful to look at a qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, to gain a sense of carbon emission bounds. Here we look at what may be considered a lower bound for 21st century emissions given two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the …

Measuring Plant-Wide Energy Savings, J. Kelly Kissock, Carl Eger

Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Faculty Publications

This paper presents a general method for measuring plant-wide industrial energy savings and demonstrates the method using a case study from an actual industrial energy assessment. The method uses regression models to characterize baseline energy use. It takes into account changes in weather and production, and can use sub-metered data or whole plant utility billing data. In addition to calculating overall savings, the method is also able to disaggregate savings into components, which provides additional insight into the effectiveness of the individual savings measures.

Although the method incorporates search techniques and multi-variable least-squares regression, it is easily implemented using data …