Natural Resources Management and Policy Commons^™

Unresolved Issues With The Assessment Of Multidecadal Global Land Surface Temperature Trends, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Christopher A. Davey, Dev Niyogi, Souleymane Fall, Jesse Steinweg-Woods, Ken Hubbard, Xiaomao Lin, Ming Cai, Young-Kwon Lim, Hong Li, John Nielsen-Gammon, Kevin Gallo, Robert Hale, Rezaul Mahmood, Stuart Foster, Richard T. Mcnider, Peter Blanken

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

This paper documents various unresolved issues in using surface temperature trends as a metric for assessing global and regional climate change. A series of examples ranging from errors caused by temperature measurements at a monitoring station to the undocumented biases in the regionally and globally averaged time series are provided. The issues are poorly understood or documented and relate to micrometeorological impacts due to warm bias in nighttime minimum temperatures, poor siting of the instrumentation, effect of winds as well as surface atmospheric water vapor content on temperature trends, the quantification of uncertainties in the homogenization of surface temperature data, …

If Larvae Were Smart: A Simple Model For Optimal Settlement Behavior Of Competent Larvae, Robert J. Toonen, Andrew J. Tyre

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Much research has been done on larval settlement cues. Rather than having simple fixed responses to constant environmental stimuli, it seems likely that settlement decisions made by individual larvae should vary depending on the individual and the conditions under which it encounters that cue. Here, we present a simple stochastic dynamic programming model that explores the conditions under which larvae may maximize their lifetime fitness by accepting lower quality habitat rather than continuing to search for superior habitat. Our model predicts that there is a relatively narrow range of parameter values over which larval selectivity among habitat types changes dramatically …

Drought Scape- Fall 2007, The National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Fall 2007 Outlook

Diverse Impacts Reported in Summer of 2007

Decadal Climate Cycles Hold Predictive Potential

Drought Experts Take Roadmap to Congress

NDMC Research Updates

Estimating Business And Residential Water Supply Interruption Losses From Catastrophic Events, Nicholas Brozovic, David L. Sunding, David Zilberman

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Following man-made or natural catastrophes, widespread and long-lasting disruption of lifelines can lead to economic impacts for both business and residential lifeline users. As a result, the total economic losses caused by infrastructure damage may be much higher than the value of damage to infrastructure itself. In this paper, we consider the estimation of economic impacts on businesses and residential consumers resulting from water supply disruption. The methodology we present for estimating business interruption losses assumes that marginal losses are increasing in the severity of disruption and that there may be a critical water availability cutoff below which business activity …

Increase In Near-Surface Atmospheric Moisture Content Due To Land Use Changes: Evidence From The Observed Dewpoint Temperature Data, Rezaul Mamood, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Ronnie D. Leeper, Stuart A. Foster

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Land use change can significantly affect root zone soil moisture, surface energy balance, and near-surface atmospheric temperature and moisture content. During the second half of the twentieth century, portions of the North American Great Plains have experienced extensive introduction of irrigated agriculture. It is expected that land use change from natural grass to irrigated land use would significantly increase nearsurface atmospheric moisture content. Modeling studies have already shown an enhanced rate of evapotranspiration from the irrigated areas. The present study analyzes observed dewpoint temperature (Td) to assess the affect of irrigated land use on near-surface atmospheric moisture content. This investigation …

Droughtscape- Summer 2007, The National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Summer 07 Outlook

Hayes Named Director of NDMC

NDMC & UN Plan for Drought

Book Review: The Worst Hard Time

Drought Tools Workshops Underway

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum October 10-11, 2007 Portland, Oregon

Patterns Of Fish Diversity In A Mainstem Missouri River Reservoir And Associated Delta In South Dakota And Nebraska, Usa, Mark A. Kaemingk, Brian D.S. Graeb, Christopher W. Hoagstrom, David W. Willis

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

There is an expansive and expanding delta at the confluence of the Niobrara and Missouri Rivers in the Lewis and Clark Reservoir. The delta provides diverse aquatic habitat that is somewhat similar to the historic Missouri River and to remnant river habitats. As such, the delta may have relatively high fish species diversity compared to lentic reservoir habitats. To compare patterns of fish diversity between the delta and reservoir habitats, we collected fish in several nursery habitats in both areas using four gear types (seine, gill net, electrofisher and fyke net) on three occasions (July, August and September) in 2005. …

The Influence Of Grazing Systems On Grassland Bird Density, Productivity, And Species Richness On Private Rangeland In The Nebraska Sandhills, Silka Lori Finkbeiner Kempema

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

No abstract provided.

Conservation And Beneficial Functions Of Grassland Birds In Agroecosystems, Andrea Victoria Hanson

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

No abstract provided.

Droughtscape- Spring 2007, The National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

2007 Spring Drought Outlook & Winter Summary

VegDRI Expands to 15 States, Refines Views

DroughtScape

State Spotlight: Utah

International Panel Foresees Drought as Part of Climate Change

NIDIS Portal Advancing

Documentation Of Uncertainties And Biases Associated With Surface Temperature Measurement Sites For Climate Change Assessment, Roger A. Pielke Sr., John Nielsen-Gammon, Christopher Davey, Jim Angel, Odie Bliss, Nolan Doesken, Ming Cal, Souleymane Fall, Dev Niyogi, Kevin Gallo, Robert Hale, Kenneth Hubbard, Xiaomao Lin, Hong Li, Sethu Raman

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Davey and Pielke (2005) presented photographic documentation of poor observation sites within the U.S. Historical Climate Reference Network (USHCN) with respect to monitoring long-term surface air temperature trends. [These photographs were first shown to the community at the 2002 Asheville, North Carolina, meeting of the American Association of State Climatologists (see information online at www. stateclimate.org/meetings/minutes/2002minutes).] Peterson (2006) compared the adjusted climate records of many of these stations and concluded that the similarity between the homogeneity adjusted time series from the good and poorly sited stations supports the view that even stations that do not, upon visual inspection, appear to …

Development Of The Soil Moisture Index To Quantify Agricultural Drought And Its “User Friendliness” In Severity-Area-Duration Assessment, Venkataramana Sridhar, Kenneth Hubbard, Jinshing You, Eric D. Hunt

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

This paper examines the role of soil moisture in quantifying drought through the development of a drought index using observed and modeled soil moisture. In Nebraska, rainfall is received primarily during the crop-growing season and the supply of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico determines if the impending crop year is either normal or anomalous and any deficit of rain leads to a lack of soil moisture storage. Using observed soil moisture from the Automated Weather Data Network (AWDN), the actual available water content for plants is calculated as the difference between observed or modeled soil moisture and wilting point, …

Impacts Of Predators On Northern Bobwhites In The Southeast, John P. Carroll, Susan N. Ellis-Felege, William E. Palmer

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The northern bobwhite quail (Colinus virginianus) is an important game bird that is intensively managed for hunting recreation in the southeastern United States. Despite interest regionwide, populations have been declining for much of the last 40 years (Brennan 1999). Population declines in the Southeast have occurred as a result of widespread habitat loss associated with land-use changes (Brennan 1999). These land-use changes include both conversion from agricultural to forest landscapes and changes in forest management practices, which result in dense forest canopies that shade required ground vegetation (Brennan 1999, Rollins and Carroll 2001). In addition, low-quality habitats may …

Vegetative And Invertebrate Community Characteristics Of Conservation Reserve Program Fields Relative To Gamebirds In Western Kansas, Elizabeth D. Doxon, John P. Carroll

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

We examined vegetation and invertebrate characteristics, including insect biomass, insect-prey, six Families and seven Orders in four varieties of Conservation Reserve Program (CP10, improved CP10, CP2 and CP25) and wheat fields in western Kansas during Jun. and Jul., 2004 and 2005 relative to gamebird chick ecology. CP10 fields had less bare ground and forbs compared to the other Conservation Practices and CP25 fields had lost much of their original forb component by the end of the study. Although there was little forb component, CP10 fields had high invertebrate biomass. However, CP10 fields demonstrated sizeable declines in the estimated effect size …

Nutrient Cycling In Forage Production Systems, David A. Wedin, Michael P. Russelle

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

In most forage production systems, the nutrients needed for plant growth are provided by microbially mediated breakdown and release of plant-available mineral nutrients from dead plant tissues, livestock excreta, soil organic matter, and geochemically bound mineral forms. Even in fertilized forage systems, determining appropriate fertilizer application rates requires a "systems" approach on the part of the manager (e.g., Di and Cameron, 2000; Rotz et al., 2002). Fertilizer additions are simply one input in the system of inputs, outputs, pools, and fluxes that characterize nutrient cycling in a particular ecosystem.

Analysis Of The Nonlinearity In The Runoff Response To Precipitation Through Numerical Modeling, Jozsef Szilagyi

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

On Diurnal Riparian Zone Groundwater-Level And Streamflow Fluctuations, Jozsef Szilagyi, Zoltan Gribovszki, Peter Kalicz, Mihaly Kucsara

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

On The Inherent Asymmetric Nature Of The Complementary Relationship Of Evaporation, Jozsef Szilagyi

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Estimation Of Catchment-Scale Evapotranspiration From Baseflow Recession Data: Numerical Model And Practical Application Results, Jozsef Szilagyi, Zoltan Gribovszki, Peter Kalicz

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Hungarian National Report On Iahs: 2003-2006, Jozsef Szilagyi

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

On The Inherent Asymmetric Nature Of The Complementary Relationship Of Evaporation, Jozsef Szilagyi

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Droughtscape- Winter 2007, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Subscribe Now!

Policy Update: NIDIS is Law. What’s Next?

What Would You Like to See?

TX, OK, Plains, Southwest Hardest Hit in 2006

Climatologically Speaking, How Bad Was It?

State Spotlight: Arizona

Drought Decision-Support Tools Evolving

Accelerating Adoption Of Fire Science And Related Research, Jamie Barbour

JFSP Research Project Reports

Since its inception in 1998, the Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) has funded over 350 projects. The Joint Fire Science Program has long recognized that the investments made in wildland fire science need to be accompanied by an emphasis on science interpretation and delivery. Program success is ultimately measured by how well information from research efforts is being conveyed to resource managers and end users, and whether this information is improving management decisions. This project introduced a conceptual model for an adaptive process to improve the delivery of scientific information. We developed this process through these steps: 1. Creating a …

Atmospheric Fire Risk (Haines Index) In A Changed Climate, Julie Winkler, Brian Potter

JFSP Research Project Reports

Previous studies of wildland fire potential under a perturbed climate have focused on potential changes in near-surface atmospheric parameters (e.g., temperature, humidity, and precipitation) and vegetation changes. However, above-ground atmospheric conditions, such as atmospheric stability, also play a critical role in fire behavior, especially for larger fires. This study employed the widely-used Haines Index as a measure of above-ground conditions relevant to wildland fire and investigated the potential changes in the Haines Index over the next 100 years. The analysis is based on simulations from the most recent version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System …

An Automated System For Evaluating Bluesky Predictions Of Smoke Impacts On Community Health And Ecosystems, Robert Solomon

JFSP Research Project Reports

Predictions of smoke impacts on communities and ecosystems are currently being made by the BlueSky smoke forecast system; providing real-time predictions of surface smoke concentrations from prescribed fire, wildfire, and agricultural burn activities. Currently operational in the Pacific Northwest, BlueSky has already a demonstrated success regarding what inter-agency collaboration can accomplish. A critical component of BlueSky that needed to be addressed was the development of an automated verification system to evaluate predicted impacts from smoke on communities and ecosystems. A verification system is necessary because land managers need to evaluate their burn decisions against potential National Ambient Air Quality Standard …

Fire Managers Field Guide: Hazardous Fuels Management In Subtropical Pine Flatwoods And Tropical Pine Rocklands, Joseph J. O'Brien, Kathyryn A. Mordecai, Leslie Wolcott, James Snyder, Kenneth Outcalt

JFSP Research Project Reports

Preface This document, The Fire Managers Field Guide: Hazardous Fuels Management in Sub-tropical Pine Flatwoods and Tropical Pine Rocklands is intended to provide an overview of techniques and tactics under actual use for addressing hazardous fuels in tropical and subtropical pine forests found in Florida, the Bahamas and elsewhere in the Caribbean. The information presented here was distilled from peer reviewed literature, technical reports, and the experiences of on-theground fire managers. Managing fuels is complex and idiosyncratic. This guide is intended to provide only a broad introduction to currently available techniques; some well known and others newer and untested. The …

Cross-Training Professionals On Reducing Property Loss At The Wildland-Urban Interface, Anne S. Fege

JFSP Research Project Reports

Most wildfire education programs have relied primarily on homeowner information and education. This project focuses on the role of business professionals who are often hired to design, build, maintain or mitigate the home and surrounding landscape or who otherwise advise homeowners and affect their decisions. Such professionals include architects, builders, insurance agents, landscape architects and contractors, planners, media, real estate professionals and others. The findings of this project were three-fold. First, by participating in this program, businesses and professionals gain a marketable service in the form of a greater understanding in wildfire mitigation as well as better business practices with …

Developing An Analysis And Planning Framework For District-Level Fuels Treatment Projects (Final Project Report), Alan Ager

JFSP Research Project Reports

Widespread fuel reduction programs have been initiated in many parts of the USA in response to a growing threat of wildland fire. Urban encroachment, fuels buildup from fire suppression, and drought all have been linked to increasing wildfire frequency and severity. Developing effective mitigation strategies is a challenging problem, especially on vast tracts of federally-managed wildlands in the western U.S. Fuel reduction activities on Federal lands are generally difficult to plan and implement due to cost, public expectations, and land management regulations. State of the art wildfire modeling is frequently required to demonstrate the benefits of fuels reduction treatments and …

Developing A Science Integration Strategy For Jfsp, Jamie Barbour

JFSP Research Project Reports

The mission of the Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) is to produce high quality research findings to inform wildland fire and fuel managers’ decisions. Since its inception in 1998, the program has funded nearly 400 studies and has generated a tremendous amount of information and analytical tools. As the JFSP moves into the future, a Science Delivery Strategy is needed to: 1) ensure that this base of information finds application, and 2) create a more systematic way to identify and organize new work that will encourage its rapid assimilation by the management community. The attached Science Delivery Strategy was developed …

Development And Demonstration Of Smoke Plume, Fire Emissions, And Preand Post-Prescribed Fire Fuel Models On North Carolina Coastal Plain Forest Ecosystems, Robert Meckler, Gary Achtemier, Chris Geron, Miriam Rorig, David Brownlie

JFSP Research Project Reports

The objectives are to (1) Inventory, map, and model live and down woody debris/fuels biomass utilizing USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis P2 and P3 field plot protocols, develop fuel loading formulas for fire behavior models in the Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge and the Air Force Dare County Bombing Range in the North Carolina Coastal Plain, and incorporate data from Coastal Plain forest types into the fuel characteristic classification (FCC) system and the FARSITE fire behavior model; (2) Validate the USDA Forest Service PB-Coastal Plain smoke model, the BlueSky smoke prediction system, and the BlueSky Rapid Access Information …