Tectonics and Structure Commons^™

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment At Seaside, Oregon, For Near- And Far-Field Seismic Sources, Frank González, Eric L. Geist, Bruce Jaffe, Utku Kânoğlu, Harold O. Mofjeld, Costas Synolakis, Vasily V. Titov, Diego Rodriguez Arcas, Douglas Bellomo, David Carlton, Thomas Horning, Jeff Johnson, Jean Newman, Thomas Parsons, Robert Peters, Curt D. Peterson, George Priest, Angie Venturato, Joseph Weber, Florence L. Wong, Ahmet Yalçıner

Geology Faculty Publications and Presentations

The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year …