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Full-Text Articles in Soil Science
Implications For Grasslands Of The Response To Climate Change By The World Food System, Martin Parry, Cynthia Rosenzweig
Implications For Grasslands Of The Response To Climate Change By The World Food System, Martin Parry, Cynthia Rosenzweig
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
A recent and preliminary assessment of the sensitivity of the world food trade to climate change has indicated the following: Assuming {unrealistically} no adjustments in inputs, global food grains production in 2060 is estimated to be reduced by l-7% from the level that would be expected under a future without climate change. Food prices, including feedstock prices, are estimated lo be increased as a consequence, The implications of lhese changes for grassland production systems are considered. Two broad types of adjustmenls in inputs can be envisaged: firstly, on-farm responses of crop type and management and, secondly, national and international policy …
Soil Characteristics And Processes Critical To The Sustainable Use Of Grasslands In Arid, Semi-Arid, And Seasonally Dry Environments, John Williams, Keith R. Helyar, Richard S.B Greene, Rosemary A. Hook
Soil Characteristics And Processes Critical To The Sustainable Use Of Grasslands In Arid, Semi-Arid, And Seasonally Dry Environments, John Williams, Keith R. Helyar, Richard S.B Greene, Rosemary A. Hook
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
The focus of this paper is a framework for determining the soil and land properties and processes which are critical to managing grasslands in an ecologically sustainable manner. Essential to the discussion is the development of concepts which allow description of the stability, resilience and sustainability of the agroecosystem as a whole as well as the land resource base. The regions of Australia with arid, semi-arid and seasonally dry environments are defined and related to the dry environments of the world. This provides a background for a brief consideration of major vegetation types and soils within the dry environments of …
Evaluating The Effects Of Climate Changes On Grasslands, Robert G. Woodmansee, William E. Riebsame
Evaluating The Effects Of Climate Changes On Grasslands, Robert G. Woodmansee, William E. Riebsame
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
Determining the effects of climate change on cold region grasslands requires the integration of knowledge from the biological, physical and social sciences. That integration is dependent on new methods, technologies and facilitation techniques ! that allow evaluation and management of complexity rather than focusing on simplification. Specifically, grassland response can be defined as the interaction of 10 basic sectors: (I) wenther and climate (Including chemical factors}, (2) winter, (3) soil properties, (4) assemblages of organisms, (5) energy, (6) economic viability, (7) individual human behavior, (8) cultural and community viability, (9) organisational penalty, and (10) political, legal, policy, and regulatory Influences. …
Foraging Strategies Of Ruminant Livestock On Intensively Managed Grasslands: Potential And Constraints, I J. Gordon, C Lascano
Foraging Strategies Of Ruminant Livestock On Intensively Managed Grasslands: Potential And Constraints, I J. Gordon, C Lascano
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
All grazed swards exhibit heterogeneity in the spatial (horizontal and vertical) dispersion of species/biomass. A herbivore foraging at random within such a heterogeneous environment would ingest less nutrients than wou Id one which exploited the heterogeneity on offer through selective grazing. The suite of decision-making processes involved in the selective grazing we observe is termed the animal's foraging strategy. On first observation, intensively managed sown swards appear to offer little opportunity for a herbivore to exhibit a foraging strategy; however, opporlunities do exist and there is empirical evidence that herbivores foraging on sown swards tend to have a diet higher …
Co-Operative Evaluation Of Northern Hemisphere Grassland Germplasm In Inner Mongolia And The Western United States, Larry K. Holzworth, Gu Anlin, J Scheetz, J Carlson
Co-Operative Evaluation Of Northern Hemisphere Grassland Germplasm In Inner Mongolia And The Western United States, Larry K. Holzworth, Gu Anlin, J Scheetz, J Carlson
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
Inner Mongolia, Peoples Republic of China (PRC) and the western United States (USA) have deteriorated or altered grasslands needing revegetation and stabilisation for soil protection and sustained production. The semi-arid and arid grasslands of Inner Mongolia and the western USA are ecologically similar in structure and function. Bach can contribute elite germplasm for revegetation programs on both continents. Evaluation trials were established jointly in Inner Mongolia and in the northern intermountain west USA by Chinese and American scientists during 1991 and 1993. Entries included Asian and North American plant materials. Results of these cooperative trials show many species having high …
Effect Of Manipulative Management Options On A Degraded Pasture Within The Astrebla Spp. Grazing Lands Of Western Queensland, J J. Bushell, J A. Reynolds, D C. Cowan, D G. Phelps, J A. Milson
Effect Of Manipulative Management Options On A Degraded Pasture Within The Astrebla Spp. Grazing Lands Of Western Queensland, J J. Bushell, J A. Reynolds, D C. Cowan, D G. Phelps, J A. Milson
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
A reduction in Aslrebla spp., and an increase in less palatable and less desirable forbs (Malvastmm americanum Psoralea cinerea), was identified as a problem in some paddocks of the Astrebla grazing lands of central western Queensland's clay soils. To determine possible rehabilitation for these pastures and assist the recovery of Astrebla spp,, a 2-year experiment was conducted near Muttaburra, Queensland (460 mm average annual rainfall), Six main treatments (nil, tine ripping, herbicide, slashing, fire, and a pioneering grass) were combined in a 6x2x2 split piot structure with grazed/not grazed and with additional Astrebla lappacea seed sown/not sown. Interim …
Forage And Animal Management Systems On Communal Rangelands In Arid And Semi-Arid Regions, Panjab Singh, A N. Ghosh
Forage And Animal Management Systems On Communal Rangelands In Arid And Semi-Arid Regions, Panjab Singh, A N. Ghosh
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
Grasslands and savannas, which comprise about 25% of the earth's land surface, are undergoing constant degradation, particularly in ar d and semi-arid regions. The rangeland resource is constantly sinking mainly because of its conversion to crop land, leaving farmer and pastorilist vulnerable to environmental extremes. This Paper presents the existing situation and the herbage and animal Product biomass of these regions. Climate and its impact on the Vegetation are discussed. Prevalent systems of rangeland use by sedentary and nomadic herdsman are considered and the constraints 0 the system are enumerated. Livestock 'rearing has been the most important occupation in these …
Formation And Development Of The Center For Grassland Studies At The University Of Nebraska, M A. Massengale
Formation And Development Of The Center For Grassland Studies At The University Of Nebraska, M A. Massengale
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
The Center for Grassland Studies was formed at the University of Nebraska in 1994 to implement focused interdisciplinary research, educational, and service programs and activities that emphasize the role of grasslands as a natural resource and conservation measure and that enhance the efficiency, profitability, sustainability, and aesthetic value of grasslands, wetlands, and turf. Although the Center is still in a developmental stage, it appears to be accomplishing those objectives.
Extensive Management Of Grasslands In Central France: Effects On Animal Performances And Economical Efficiency, J M. Chabosseau
Extensive Management Of Grasslands In Central France: Effects On Animal Performances And Economical Efficiency, J M. Chabosseau
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
The farming context for livestock production has changed in Central France for the last 15 years. There has been a release of land and a change in financial support that favoured extensive systems. The management and economical results of two experimental sheep farmlets are compared; the extensified has an area 45% larger than the control but the number of ewes are the same. The optimization of managements in both units leads to practices rather different for fertilising, fodder making and grazing. The effects are the achieving of similar animal performances and the reduction of expenditure on grasslands (-30% per ewe) …
A Village Approach In Rehabilitation Of Degraded Pastures On Marginal Lands In West Asia, A E. Osman, S Christiansen, A Nassar, F Ghassali
A Village Approach In Rehabilitation Of Degraded Pastures On Marginal Lands In West Asia, A E. Osman, S Christiansen, A Nassar, F Ghassali
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
The objectives of the present study are to demonstrate techniques of native pasture improvement to farming communities and to assess their ability to apply pasture management, including deferred grazing. The work was conducted in four villages in north west Syria and in one location in Beka’a, Lebanon. The results indicated significant improvement on pasture productivity and the farmers showed a positive attitude towards adopting the new practices.
Contribute To A Definition Of Extensive Grazing (Mediterranean), J. Potes, J. P. F. Almeida, C. Matos, A. Teixeira
Contribute To A Definition Of Extensive Grazing (Mediterranean), J. Potes, J. P. F. Almeida, C. Matos, A. Teixeira
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
The subject of this paper is a definition of Extensive Grazing from Extensive Systems of Animal Production in Mediterranean environments. The edaphoclimatic characterization is essential to understand the low level of primary productivity as a consequence of irregular precipitation over the year and its absence during the long, dry and hot summer. The powerless of soils justify the limited contribution of plants and make clear the necessary recovery of the soil and storage of water naturally (soil) or artificially (irrigation). Considering the IPBES (Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) definition of extensive grazing it has been used the …
Modeling The Biomass Production Of Grasslands Of Wallonia According To Their Functional Type, U. Kokah Essomandan, D. Knoden, B. Dumont, J. Bindelle
Modeling The Biomass Production Of Grasslands Of Wallonia According To Their Functional Type, U. Kokah Essomandan, D. Knoden, B. Dumont, J. Bindelle
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
Permanent grasslands are complex ecosystems which respond with a great variability - in terms of specific richness - to soil type and management strategies. Modelling is a valuable tool to explore these relationships. Our work consisted in adapting the Moorepark St Gilles grass growth model (MoSt GG) designed to model Lolium perenne plant functional type (PFT) pastures (PFT A) to a different PFT (Dactylis glomerata, PFT B) through literature-based parametrization. The model was evaluated under Walloon (Belgium) conditions using growth trials from 2014 to 2018 in two sites with contrasting pedo-climatic conditions. Three to five cuts were performed …
Grasslands, Rangelands, Pastoralists – What Do We Mean?, D. M. Kelly, Ann Waters-Bayer, K. L. Johnson, Maryam Niamir-Fuller, Chris Magero, Tungalag Ulambayer
Grasslands, Rangelands, Pastoralists – What Do We Mean?, D. M. Kelly, Ann Waters-Bayer, K. L. Johnson, Maryam Niamir-Fuller, Chris Magero, Tungalag Ulambayer
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
The terms grasslands and rangelands are often confused, but the terms used to describe the people who live and manage these areas are even more confusing. The myriad of words used about these people includes: pastoralists, farmers, ranchers, herders, transhumants, indigenous peoples, nomads, graziers, gauchos. The terms used vary across the world, and meanings vary across time and space. One definition of pastoralists is “livestock-keepers who specialise in taking advantage of variability, managing grazing itineraries at a variety of scales so that livestock feed better than without a herder” (Krätli 2019). The United Nations Decade of Family Farming defines farmers …
Challenges Of Grassland Policies Implementation In Kenya And The Sustainable Development Goals, N. Daari
Challenges Of Grassland Policies Implementation In Kenya And The Sustainable Development Goals, N. Daari
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
Since independence, Kenya has found herself at the crossroads caused by economic recession, criminality, corruption and ineptitude leadership that has led to persistent household extreme poverty. It is time now to search for solutions to address the challenges facing sustainable livelihood development in Kenya. This study, therefore examines the challenges of grasslands related policies and their implementation in Kenya and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A review study of the literature on grasslands and rangelands related policies and laws, SDGs frameworks, government and academic literature was carried out. The study results show that; Kenya has faced challenges of grasslands policies …
Strategic Integration Of Grasslands Within The Agricultural Landscape: Optimizing Benefits For The Producer And Society, A. J. Duff, J. G. Franco
Strategic Integration Of Grasslands Within The Agricultural Landscape: Optimizing Benefits For The Producer And Society, A. J. Duff, J. G. Franco
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
We provide a case study assessment, centered in the Upper Midwest region of the United States, of the economic and environmental outcomes associated with the inclusion of grasslands within dairy production systems. This farmscape design approach can be applied at farm, watershed, and regional scales, and has the potential to significantly improve the resilience of our agricultural lands. Ruminant livestock are uniquely adapted to utilize perennial forages, and the strategic integration of grasslands within the agricultural landscape can improve producer return on investment while generating ecosystem services that benefit the production system and society.
The Business Case For Healthy Grasslands-Based Agriculture – Economic And Social Implications, E. Bisangwa, Pat D. Keyser
The Business Case For Healthy Grasslands-Based Agriculture – Economic And Social Implications, E. Bisangwa, Pat D. Keyser
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
Native perennial warm-season grasses (NWSGs) of the United States (U.S.) provide valuable summer forage. Studies have shown their potential within grazing systems as a complement to cool-season forages, as well as their benefits to soil biota, wildlife biodiversity, carbon sequestration and their resiliency to extreme drought and flood events. In this paper, we demonstrate that, in addition to these benefits, NWSGs provide important economic value to beef and dairy producers as a hedge against financial risks posed by overreliance on cool-season grasses.
A Comparison Of Four Methods Of Botanical Analysis In Kentucky Cattle Pastures, Echo Elizabeth Gotsick, S. Ray Smith, Jimmy C. Henning, Christopher D. Teutsch
A Comparison Of Four Methods Of Botanical Analysis In Kentucky Cattle Pastures, Echo Elizabeth Gotsick, S. Ray Smith, Jimmy C. Henning, Christopher D. Teutsch
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
Throughout the many decades of grassland and forage research, practitioners have used many different methods to assess botanical composition. While a few of these methods have proven to be accurate and efficient, there has been limited direct comparison between methods. The objective of this study was to determine an accurate and efficient method to determine botanical composition for researchers, practitioners, and students. Six farms with two pastures each were monitored across the state of Kentucky. Sampling started fall 2020 and continued through fall 2022 with measurements taken three times a year using the following measurement techniques: step point, visual estimation, …
New Insights For Benefit Of Legume Inclusion In Grazing Systems, David M. Jaramillo, José C. B. Dubeux Jr., L. M. D. Queiroz, L. Garcia
New Insights For Benefit Of Legume Inclusion In Grazing Systems, David M. Jaramillo, José C. B. Dubeux Jr., L. M. D. Queiroz, L. Garcia
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
The benefits and challenges of legume inclusion in grazing systems have been well documented over time and across different regions. Recent investigations have provided novel insights into the benefits of legume inclusion in grazing systems. Our objective is not to provide a wide overview of the benefits of legume inclusion but to explore novel insights of recent advancements made from studies evaluating legume inclusion in grazing systems. Efficiency of resource use through legume inclusion in grazing systems can reduce the water footprint associated with beef production through improvements in forage nutritive value and animal performance. These efficiencies also translate into …
Grazing Effects On Soil Seed Banks: A Global Synthesis, Shi Yafei
Grazing Effects On Soil Seed Banks: A Global Synthesis, Shi Yafei
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
Livestock grazing is a major disturbance affecting plant diversity and abundance in terrestrial ecosystems. The intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH) predicts that moderate-intensity grazing should produce the highest species diversity, while the Milchunas-Sala-Lauenroth (MSL) model posits that the IDH is valid only for mesic areas. However, it remains unclear how grazing affects soil seed bank and whether or not the IDH or MSL models are valid for soil seed bank communities. Here, we presented a global meta-analysis synthesizing 483 observations: we found that grazing had a negative effect on soil seed bank abundance, but did not alter seed bank richness. Further …
Back To The Future: How Do We Get There From Here? Making Restoration Work, K. Swilling, E. Bisangwa, Pat D. Keyser
Back To The Future: How Do We Get There From Here? Making Restoration Work, K. Swilling, E. Bisangwa, Pat D. Keyser
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
Extreme temperatures and long periods of drought observed with increasing frequency in the southeastern United States (U.S.) have demonstrated the need to develop more robust forage systems. Native warmseason grasses (NWSGs) are well adapted to fill this role, but their expanded use comes with several challenges, most notably, reliable establishment. The high cost of site preparation, high cost of seed, and slow initial growth of NWSG seedlings must be addressed to achieve increased adoption of NWSG in the eastern U.S. If these challenges are overcome, incorporating NWSG into grazing systems would benefit producers by filling the summer forage gap, mitigating …
Grazing Effects On Soil Seed Banks: A Global Synthesis, Shi Yafei
Grazing Effects On Soil Seed Banks: A Global Synthesis, Shi Yafei
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
Livestock grazing is a major disturbance affecting plant diversity and abundance in terrestrial ecosystems. The intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH) predicts that moderate-intensity grazing should produce the highest species diversity, while the Milchunas-Sala-Lauenroth (MSL) model posits that the IDH is valid only for mesic areas. However, it remains unclear how grazing affects soil seed bank and whether or not the IDH or MSL models are valid for soil seed bank communities. Here, we presented a global meta-analysis synthesizing 483 observations: we found that grazing had a negative effect on soil seed bank abundance, but did not alter seed bank richness. Further …
Effect Of Land Management On Grassland Carbon Dioxide Fluxes, M. O’Neill, S. F. Islam, J. Rambaud, G. J. Lanigan, K. G. Richards, M. B. Lynch
Effect Of Land Management On Grassland Carbon Dioxide Fluxes, M. O’Neill, S. F. Islam, J. Rambaud, G. J. Lanigan, K. G. Richards, M. B. Lynch
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
Grassland soils can act as both a source and sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Implementing grassland management practices that increase the rates of soil CO2 sequestration are urgently sought to offset Ireland’s agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. However, land management of Irish grasslands is not yet accounted for in the national inventories simultaneously posing a limitation and opportunity for refining modelled estimates of carbon sequestration. In this study, eddy covariance flux towers were established to monitor net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Re) in three grassland types (intensive dairy grazing, drystock grazing and zero- …
Biodiversity And The Ecological Role Of Grasslands Environment And Territory, Elimane Lo, Makhmutov Serguei, Badim Almazov
Biodiversity And The Ecological Role Of Grasslands Environment And Territory, Elimane Lo, Makhmutov Serguei, Badim Almazov
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
Biodiversity is all the living species that inhabit the planet: plants, animals, microorganisms, but also their genetic diversity and all the ecosystems in which they live. The preservation of biodiversity is vital, because the organisms that constitute it participate in the major ecological cycles of air, soil and water It is today recognized for its intrinsic value and for the functions it provides in ecosystems. The grassland and the hedges that surround them play a key role in carbon storage, water purification, biodiversity and the typicity of landscapes. They partly provide the plants necessary for feeding herds of herbivores (cattle, …
Back To The Future: Achieving Resilient, Sustainable Grasslands Through Restoration Of Ecological Norms / Overview – The Problem, The Opportunity, Pat D. Keyser, C. Bitler
Back To The Future: Achieving Resilient, Sustainable Grasslands Through Restoration Of Ecological Norms / Overview – The Problem, The Opportunity, Pat D. Keyser, C. Bitler
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
Grasslands are one of the largest biomes on earth, are the largest agricultural enterprise in the U.S., serve as a major carbon pool, produce high quality dietary proteins, and host a rich biodiversity. However, grasslands, including those of the eastern U.S., have been heavily altered and degraded reducing their resiliency and negatively impacting native fauna. Recent scientific advances in grassland establishment and management, along with the opportunity to monetize the carbon benefits of native grasslands, could provide the needed social and economic support to make such restoration possible on a large scale. Where restored grassland communities align with historical, ecological …
L-Grassf: A New Model For Simulating The Genetic Environment Interactions On The Reproductive Phenology Of Grasses, S. Rouet, Jean Louis Durand, D. Combes, A. Escobar Gutiérrez, D. Leclercq, R. Barillot
L-Grassf: A New Model For Simulating The Genetic Environment Interactions On The Reproductive Phenology Of Grasses, S. Rouet, Jean Louis Durand, D. Combes, A. Escobar Gutiérrez, D. Leclercq, R. Barillot
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
Predicting the reproductive phenology in perennial grasses is a major concern because it determines the quantity and quality of forage. It varies a lot depending on site, year and cultivar. Projections of future climates suggest significant changes in seasonal temperature pattern, with new combinations of temperature and photoperiod, whose consequences on the floral induction of perennial grasses are unknown. L-GrassF is a new Functional Structural Plant Model simulating genetic variability of the phenology of perennial ryegrass in order to better understand the perenniality of grasslands and better anticipate the effects of climate change. L-GrassF stems from a previous model (L-Grass) …
The Soil Health Properties Of Native Grasslands, C. Bitler, Pat Keyser
The Soil Health Properties Of Native Grasslands, C. Bitler, Pat Keyser
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
Due to an increased interest in soil health and the role soils can have in carbon sequestration, native grasslands are getting heightened attention. Native grasslands are known for their deep top-soils that develop over time through the accumulation of soil organic matter. The deep and fibrous root systems that make up two-thirds of the biomass of native grasslands are the primary contributors to the soil organic carbon (SOC) content of grassland soils. Increased SOC content has a cascading effect on soil health metrics through increasing water infiltration and water holding capacity, supporting diverse and abundant soil microbial life, and improving …
Modelling Basal Area Of Perennial Grasses In Australian Semi-Arid Wooded Grasslands, S. G. Marsden, K. C. Hodgkinson
Modelling Basal Area Of Perennial Grasses In Australian Semi-Arid Wooded Grasslands, S. G. Marsden, K. C. Hodgkinson
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
In many semi-arid pastoral systems, landscape processes easily become dysfunctional. Shifts to less functional states may be irreversible, and have long-term consequences for pastoral profitability and social viability of rural communities. Typically, shifts to lower functional states involve a decline in perennial grasses (Hodgkinson, 1994). Here we develop a conceptual basis for modelling the basal area of perennial grasses in a semi-arid grassland and validate the model using data from a 10-year grazing study.
Does Niche Complementarity Explain The Relationship Between Biodiversity And Ecosystem Functioning In Managed Grasslands?, Nina Buchmann, A. Kahmen
Does Niche Complementarity Explain The Relationship Between Biodiversity And Ecosystem Functioning In Managed Grasslands?, Nina Buchmann, A. Kahmen
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
Niche complementarity was suggested to largely explain the positive relationship noted between plant diversity and productivity in some recent studies. This suggests that an increasing number of species exploits resources more efficiently and thus enhance ecosystem functions. This hypothesis, however, implies that niches occupied by different plant species are rather distinct so that niches from extinct or missing species stay unoccupied by the remaining species of an ecosystem. This experiment tested if plant species occupy different and distinct niches with respect to soil N uptake, being a possible functional explanation for the biodiversity ecosystem functioning relationship.
The Use Of Ecological Indicators In Studies Of Ecological Recovery For Sustainable Management Of Grazed Grassland Ecosystems, G. A. Heshmati
The Use Of Ecological Indicators In Studies Of Ecological Recovery For Sustainable Management Of Grazed Grassland Ecosystems, G. A. Heshmati
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
Early warning systems that depend on the selection of suitable indicators of thresholds are useful (Friedel, 1991). An ideal indicator should be unbiased, sensitive to changes, predictive, referenced to threshold values, data transformable, integrative and easy to collect and communicate (Liverman et al., 1988). Methods for selection of indicators for assessing ecosystem health are being developed (Pyke et al., 2002). This paper examines the situation in grassland vegetation grazed by sheep in a semi arid region of northeastern Iran.
Undp-Gef Grasslands Project: Conserving Mountain Biodiversity In Southern Lesotho, W. A. Rodgers
Undp-Gef Grasslands Project: Conserving Mountain Biodiversity In Southern Lesotho, W. A. Rodgers
IGC Proceedings (1993-2023)
The Kingdom of Lesotho contains some 70% of the Drakensberg-Maloti Mountains, recognised as the Eastern Mountains "Centre of Biodiversity and Endemism" of southern Africa. The Mountains have globally significant plant diversity, with unique habitats and high endemism. These resources have been increasingly degraded by a grazing regime based on communal access, with reduced regulatory capability. Lack of ownership has restricted investment in conservation. Lesotho has the lowest Protected Area coverage of any nation in Africa (<0.4%). Biodiversity is thus at risk.