Paleontology Commons^™

Estimating Evolutionary Volatility In A Maximum-Likelihood Framework, Samuel Warren Tybout

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports

Evolutionary volatility is a trait that encompasses a clade’s combined capacity for origination and extinction. High volatility increases extinction risk, and declining global extinction rates are thought to be linked to declining volatility. Despite volatility’s scientific importance, there is no standardized way of measuring it. This study provides a new method, derived from a stochastic birth-death model, of estimating evolutionary volatility from fossil data. Simulations indicate that the method produces accurate and precise estimates for large fossil datasets. Analysis of fossil data for five bivalve families (Lucinidae, Mytilidae, Pectinidae, Pholadomyidae, and Veneridae) indicates that diversity projections made from the estimates …