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A Model For Predicting Lightning-Fire Ignition In Wildland Fuels, United States Department Of Agriculture, Forest Service

Wildfires

A model has been developed for predicting the number of lightning-fire ignitions in wildland fuels. The model is based on both stochastic and physical processes. Stochastic methods are used to generalize the lightning storm characteristics and site conditions that affect the potential for ignition. Physical processes are involved in determining the ignition probability of woody fuels by individual lightning events. Input required to operate the model includes lightning activity, upper air windspeed (storm movement), fuel moisture, and fuel bulk density. The model can be used either to predict ignitions at some future time by using forecast data or to estimate …