Hydrology Commons^™

Umphlett Qci Dec 2018, Natalie A. Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Water Resources and Drought

Agriculture

Temperature

Precipitation

Spatial Variation In Throughfall, Soil, And Plant Water Isotopes In A Temperate Forest, Gregory R. Goldsmith, Scott T. Allen, Sabine Braun, Nadine Engbersen, Clara Romero González-Quijano, James W. Kirchner, Rolf T. W. Siegwolf

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Studies of stable isotopes of water in the environment have been fundamental to advancing our understanding of how water moves through the soil‐plant‐atmosphere continuum; however, much of this research focuses on how water isotopes vary in time, rather than in space. We examined the spatial variation in the δ¹⁸O and δ²H of throughfall and bulk soil water, as well as branch xylem and bulk leaf water of Picea abies (Norway Spruce) and Fagus sylvatica (Beech), in a 1 ha forest plot in the northern Alps of Switzerland. Means and ranges of water isotope ratios varied considerably …

Droughtscape- 2018 Fall, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

From the director.............. 2

Drought greatly improves in Southern Plains and South............. 3

Texas, Missouri, and Colorado logged late-summer impacts.............. 5

Memory, remote sensing and a new research methodology............. 8

Navigating the U.S. Drought Monitor......... 9

Planners discuss the barriers to effective drought mitigation planning............ 12

Exploring climate issues from a county management perspective.............. 13

Strategic Framework for Drought Risk Management and Enhancing Resilience in Africa..................... 14

Mena global policy forum looks from data to mitigation............. 15

About us............17

State-by-state drought classification table developed by NDMC graduate student........19

Umphlett Qci Sept 2018, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought

Water Resources

Agriculture

Temperature

Precipitation

The Periglacial Landscape Of Mars: Insight Into The 'Decameter-Scale Rimmed Depressions' In Utopia Planitia, Arya Bina

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Currently, Mars appears to be in a ‘frozen’ and ‘dry’ state, with the clear majority of the planet’s surface maintaining year-round sub-zero temperatures. However, the discovery of features consistent with landforms found in periglacial environments on Earth, suggests a climate history for Mars that may have involved freeze and thaw cycles. Such landforms include hummocky, polygonised, scalloped, and pitted terrains, as well as ice-rich deposits and gullies, along the mid- to high-latitude bands, typically with no lower than 20o N/S. The detection of near-surface and surface ice via the Phoenix lander, excavation of ice via recent impact cratering activity as …

Assessment Of Snow Atmosphere Forcing During Central Idaho Atmospheric Rivers, William Rudisill

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

Atmospheric Rivers (AR) are globally occuring weather features and the primary mechanism through which water vapor moves from the tropics and subtropics towards the mid-latitudes, doing so at rates comparable to the world’s largest terrestrial rivers. AR that encounter mountains often cause extreme precipitation in the form of rain and snow, high winds, and flooding in many watersheds. They account for as much as 20-30% of cool season precipitation in the central Idaho Mountains. In the Northern Hemisphere, seasonal snow cover during Winter and Spring months is the most variable land surface component in space and time, and acts on …

High Net Loss Of Intertidal Wetland Coverage In A Maine Estuary By Year 2100, Jack R. Mclachlan

Biology and Ecology Faculty Scholarship

Rising sea levels and coastal land use are predicted to synergistically impact coastal wetlands by reducing their extent and ecosystem functioning through a process known as “coastal squeeze”. Impervious surfaces associated with coastal development prevent the natural process of wetland migration, whereby intertidal wetland area is lost at its seaward edge to rising low water lines, but is replaced by eroding uplands and accumulating new wetland at its landward edge. As these constructed surfaces prevent the replacement of lost wetland, intertidal wetlands are “squeezed” by rising sea levels until they disappear. This study uses geographic information system (GIS) to predict …

Droughtscape- 2018 Summer, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

From the director.......................... 2

Drought expands and intensifies ............ 3

Dry down fuels fires ..................... 5

Tweeting #drought18.................... 7

MOISST and NSMN..................... 8

Caribbean planning progress .............. 9

Drought observer network study........... 10

MENA teams report progress ............. 12

NDMC global outreach............... 13

Climate hub workshop................ 15

On the horizon ........................... 16

Tracking Drought Perspectives: A Rural Case Study Of Transformations Following An Invisible Hazard, Theresa Jedd, Deborah Bathke, Duane Gill, Bimal Paul, Nicole Wall, Tonya Bernadt, Jacob Peter, Anthony Mucia, Milan Wall

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Rural towns are especially susceptible to the effects of drought because their economies are dependent on natural resources. However, they are also resilient in many ways to natural hazards because they are rich in civic engagement and social capital. Because of the diverse nature of drought’s impacts, understanding its complex dynamics and its effects requires a multidisciplinary approach. To study these dynamics, this research combines appreciative inquiry, the Community Capitals Framework, and a range of climatological monitoring data to assess the 2012–14 Great Plains drought’s effect on McCook, Nebraska. Community coping measures, such as water-use reduction and public health programs, …

Umphlett Qci June 2018, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature Anomalies

Precipitation Anomalies

Water Resources

Agriculture

Temperature

Precipitation

Smap Soil Moisture Change As An Indicator Of Drought Conditions, Rajasekaran Eswar, Narendra N. Das, Calvin Christian Poulsen, Ali Behrangi, John Swigart, Mark D. Svoboda, Dara Entekhabi, Simon Yueh, Bradley Doorn, Jared Entin

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Soil moisture is considered a key variable in drought analysis. The soil moisture dynamics given by the change in soil moisture between two time periods can provide information on the intensification or improvement of drought conditions. The aim of this work is to analyze how the soil moisture dynamics respond to changes in drought conditions over multiple time intervals. The change in soil moisture estimated from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite observations was compared with the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The results indicated that the …

Downscaling Africa’S Drought Forecasts Through Integration Of Indigenous And Scientific Drought Forecasts Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Muthoni Masinde, Mwanjele Mwagha, Tsegaye Tadesse

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In the wake of increased drought occurrences being witnessed in Sub-Saharan Africa, more localized and contextualized drought mitigation strategies are on the agendas of many researchers and policy makers in the region. The integration of indigenous knowledge on droughts with seasonal climate forecasts is one such strategy. The main challenge facing this integration, however, is the formal representation of highly-structured and holistic indigenous knowledge. In this paper, we demonstrate how the use of fuzzy cognitive mapping can address this challenge. Indigenous knowledge on droughts from five communities was modeled and represented using fuzzy cognitive maps. Maps from one of these …

Validation Of New Satellite Rainfall Products Over The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Getachew Tesfaye Ayehu, Tsegaye Tadesse, Berhan Gessesse, Tufa Dinku

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Accurate measurement of rainfall is vital to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation at various scales. However, the conventional rain gauge observations in many parts of the world such as Ethiopia are sparse and unevenly distributed. An alternative to traditional rain gauge observations could be satellite-based rainfall estimates. Satellite rainfall estimates could be used as a sole product (e.g., in areas with no (or poor) ground observations) or through integrating with rain gauge measurements. In this study, the potential of a newly available Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) rainfall product has been evaluated in comparison …

Droughtscape- 2018 Spring, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

Drought shifts to south in beginning of 2018......................................... 3

Ag records impacts; strong fire season forecast .......... 5

Drought maps show regional and river forecast areas...................... 7

Greenness indicator could save lives in Africa ....................... 8

NDMC on a global playing field................................ 10

Visitors from Korea tap drought resources, experts ......................11

Svoboda named to UN advisory group ......................................... 12

Responding to drought in the Southern Plains ......................... 13

Crops, cattle and climatology in the Upper Niobrara .......................... 15

Connecting locally for global change....................................... 16

Primary Atmospheric Drivers Of Pluvial Years In The United States Great Plains, Paul Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jason C. Furtado, Xiangming Xiao

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Precipitation variability has increased in recent decades across the Great Plains (GP) of the United States. Drought and its associated drivers have been studied in the GP region; however, periods of excessive precipitation (pluvials) at seasonal to interannual scales have received less attention. This study narrows this knowledge gap with the overall goal of understanding GP precipitation variability during pluvial periods. Through composites of relevant atmospheric variables from the ECMWF twentieth-century reanalysis (ERA-20C), key differences between southern Great Plains (SGP) and northern Great Plains (NGP) pluvial periods are highlighted. The SGP pluvial pattern shows an area of negative height anomalies …

Predicting Effects Of Climate Change And Sea Level Rise On Hydrologic Processes In A Mid-Atlantic Coastal Watershed, Rui Li

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation assessed impacts of Climate Change (CC) and Sea Level Rise (SLR) on coastal hydrologic processes using the Lynnhaven River watershed as a test bed. The watershed is part of Chesapeake Bay Watershed and hydraulically connected with mid-Atlantic Ocean. Six CC scenarios were considered in terms of eight Regional Climate Models’ predictions for three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission assumptions, namely, B1, A1B, and A2, for two future periods, namely 2046 to 2065 and 2081 to 2099. The ensemble means of downscaling results from four methods were used to represent the future climates. On the other hand, …

Precipitation Extremes In Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios Over The Greater Horn Of Africa, Andualem Shiferaw, Tsegaye Tadesse, Clinton M. Rowe, Robert Oglesby

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This study first assesses the performance of regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in reproducing observed extreme precipitation indices over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region during 1989–2005. The study then assesses projected changes in these extremes during 2069–2098 compared to 1976–2005. The Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations are made using two RCMs, with large-scale forcing from four CMIP5 Global limate Models(GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that RCM simulations have reasonably captured observed patterns of moderate precipitation extreme indices (MPEI). Pattern correlation coefficients between simulated and observed MPEI …

Extreme Precipitation Events, Impacts, Trends And Projections For Indiana, Sam Lashley

Purdue Road School

The National Weather Service is working with core partners to build a Weather Ready Nation for present and future generations by taking advanced action against the devastating impacts of extreme weather events, including extreme precipitation and flooding. One way in which this can be accomplished is by studying trends in historical weather data and applying what we learn to future mitigation efforts. The goal is to gain a better understanding of the magnitude and impacts that future extreme precipitation events may have on local infrastructure.

This presentation will review extreme rainfall and flooding events that have occurred across Indiana along …

Umphlett Qci March 2018, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Enhanced Fire Activity During Winter

Utilities Impacted by Extreme Cold

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Winter Drought Conditions and Outlook

Comparison Of The Performance Of Six Drought Indices In Characterizing Historical Drought For The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Yared Bayissa, Shreedhar Maskey, Tsegaye Tadesse, Schalk Jan Van Andel, Semu Moges, Ann Van Griensven, Dimitri Solomatine

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin is less-explored in terms of drought studies as compared to other parts of Ethiopia and lacks a basin-specific drought monitoring system. This study compares six drought indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI), Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI), Aggregate Drought Index (ADI), and Standardized Runoff-discharge Index (SRI), and evaluates their performance with respect to identifying historic drought events in the UBN basin. The indices were calculated using monthly time series of observed precipitation, average temperature, river discharge, and modeled evapotranspiration and soil moisture from 1970 to 2010. …

Factors Influencing Farmers’ Adoption Of Best Management Practices: A Review And Synthesis, Tingting Liu, Randall J. F. Bruins, Matthew T. Heberling

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Best management practices (BMPs) for reducing agricultural non-point source pollution are widely available. However, agriculture remains a major global contributor to degradation of waters because farmers often do not adopt BMPs. To improve water quality, it is necessary to understand the factors that influence BMP adoption by farmers. We review the findings of BMP adoption studies from both developed and developing countries, published after (or otherwise not included in) two major literature reviews from 2007 and 2008. We summarize the study locations, scales, and BMPs studied; the analytical methods used; the factors evaluated; and the directionality of each factor’s influence …

Developing A Remotely Sensed Drought Monitoring Indicator For Morocco, Noureddine Bijaber, Driss El Hadani, Mariam Saidi, Mark D. Svoboda, Christopher Hain, Calvin Christian Poulsen, Mohammed Yessef, Atmane Rochdi

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is one of the most serious climatic and natural disasters inflicting serious impacts on the socio-economy of Morocco, which is characterized both by low-average annual rainfall and high irregularity in the spatial distribution and timing of precipitation across the country. This work aims to develop a comprehensive and integrated method for drought monitoring based on remote sensing techniques. The main input parameters are derived monthly from satellite data at the national scale and are then combined to generate a composite drought index presenting different severity classes of drought. The input parameters are: Standardized Precipitation Index calculated from satellite-based precipitation …

Improving National And Regional Drought Early Warning Systems In The Greater Horn Of Africa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Nicole Wall, Michael Hayes, Mark Svoboda, Deborah `Bathke

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The workshop was conducted to discuss various new and existing seasonal models and experimental drought and vegetation prediction products with experts and decision-makers representing local (private, governmental, and nongovernmental organizations), regional, and international organizations in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Eighty-five participants met to discuss a strategic approach for improving drought early warning and food security systems in the GHA.

Drought Information Services For U.S. Agriculture, National Drought Mitigation Center

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

Enhancing U.S. Drought Monitor Services & Products

The USDM's weekly display of drought conditions is an important drought early-warning tool for agricultural producers and USDA professionals. Stakeholders that now rely on the USDM include:

• National policymakers who use the USDM as a measure for allocation of relief dollars;

• State governments that refer to the USDM to trigger drought response measures;

• Planners and researchers studying the effects of past droughts;

• Media professionals and educators looking for graphic representation of complex climate interactions.

Drought And Land-Cover Conditions In The Great Plains, Heather Tollerud, Jesslyn Brown, Thomas Loveland, Rezaul Mahmood, Norman Bliss

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Land–atmosphere interactions play a critical role in the Earth system, and a better understanding of these interactions could improve weather and climate models. The interaction among drought, vegetation productivity, and land cover is of particular significance. In a semiarid environment, such as the U.S. Great Plains, droughts can have a large influence on the productivity of agriculture and grasslands, with serious environmental and economic impacts. Here, we used the vegetation drought response index (VegDRI) drought indicator to investigate the response of vegetation to weather and climate for landcover types in the Great Plains in the United States from 1989 to …

Droughtscape- Winter 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Year in review: Drought eased in California, developed in Northern Plains......... 2

Quarterly Summary: Drought creeps across the country.............. 3

Annual impact summary: A year of wildfires.......... 4

Quarterly impact summary: Drought expands in Texas, Colorado............ 6

Drought and water crisis book updated............... 8

U.S. Drought Monitor available in Spanish........... 9

Study shows cities step up when drought occurs............... 10

New staff at the NDMC............. 11

Drought Summit in photos.............. 12

2018 Ndmc Annual, Mark Svoboda, Kelly Smith, Deborah Bathke, Brian Fuchs, Cody L. Knutson, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

Contents
01 From the director
02 Drought preparation toolkit tested in Nebraska available to all
03 Partnerships produce vulnerability assessments for tribes
04 Drought Monitor maps & stats localized for NWS offices
05 Producer workshops focus on latest drought management tools
06 2018 by the numbers
08 Where we were in 2018
10 New web-based form makes submitting drought observations easier
11 Five states began drought plan updates in 2018
12 Project brought drought management, monitoring skills to 4 countries
13 2018 Publication highlights
16 Collaboration
17 Team and partnerships

Understanding The Food Water Nexus: Characterizing The Impact Of Climatological Anomalies On Agrosystems, Patrick M. Wurster Jr.

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

Climate variability at global and regional scales is escalating with increased atmospheric carbon and is expected to magnify the intensity and duration of meteorological extremes, especially droughts. From the many environmental stresses that diminish crop production (e.g., soil salinity, frost, soil erosion) drought is one of the most prevalent. This study focuses on the sensitivity of three key crops produced in the northwestern United States to climatological anomalies, while controlling for attribution using anomalies in price. The study differs from similar studies in that we focus on variability in production which captures both yield (tonnes/ha) and cropping area (ha), as …