Hydrology Commons^™

Droughtscape- 2018 Fall, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

From the director.............. 2

Drought greatly improves in Southern Plains and South............. 3

Texas, Missouri, and Colorado logged late-summer impacts.............. 5

Memory, remote sensing and a new research methodology............. 8

Navigating the U.S. Drought Monitor......... 9

Planners discuss the barriers to effective drought mitigation planning............ 12

Exploring climate issues from a county management perspective.............. 13

Strategic Framework for Drought Risk Management and Enhancing Resilience in Africa..................... 14

Mena global policy forum looks from data to mitigation............. 15

About us............17

State-by-state drought classification table developed by NDMC graduate student........19

Droughtscape- 2018 Summer, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

From the director.......................... 2

Drought expands and intensifies ............ 3

Dry down fuels fires ..................... 5

Tweeting #drought18.................... 7

MOISST and NSMN..................... 8

Caribbean planning progress .............. 9

Drought observer network study........... 10

MENA teams report progress ............. 12

NDMC global outreach............... 13

Climate hub workshop................ 15

On the horizon ........................... 16

Tracking Drought Perspectives: A Rural Case Study Of Transformations Following An Invisible Hazard, Theresa Jedd, Deborah Bathke, Duane Gill, Bimal Paul, Nicole Wall, Tonya Bernadt, Jacob Peter, Anthony Mucia, Milan Wall

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Rural towns are especially susceptible to the effects of drought because their economies are dependent on natural resources. However, they are also resilient in many ways to natural hazards because they are rich in civic engagement and social capital. Because of the diverse nature of drought’s impacts, understanding its complex dynamics and its effects requires a multidisciplinary approach. To study these dynamics, this research combines appreciative inquiry, the Community Capitals Framework, and a range of climatological monitoring data to assess the 2012–14 Great Plains drought’s effect on McCook, Nebraska. Community coping measures, such as water-use reduction and public health programs, …

Smap Soil Moisture Change As An Indicator Of Drought Conditions, Rajasekaran Eswar, Narendra N. Das, Calvin Christian Poulsen, Ali Behrangi, John Swigart, Mark D. Svoboda, Dara Entekhabi, Simon Yueh, Bradley Doorn, Jared Entin

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Soil moisture is considered a key variable in drought analysis. The soil moisture dynamics given by the change in soil moisture between two time periods can provide information on the intensification or improvement of drought conditions. The aim of this work is to analyze how the soil moisture dynamics respond to changes in drought conditions over multiple time intervals. The change in soil moisture estimated from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite observations was compared with the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The results indicated that the …

Predicting Spatial Patterns In Precipitation Isotope (Δ2h And Δ18o) Seasonality Using Sinusoidal Isoscapes, Scott T. Allen, James W. Kirchner, Gregory R. Goldsmith

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Understanding how precipitation isotopes vary spatially and temporally is important for tracer applications. We tested how well month‐to‐month variations in precipitation δ18O and δ2H were captured by sinusoidal cycles, and how well spatial variations in these seasonal cycles could be predicted, across Switzerland. Sine functions representing seasonal cycles in precipitation isotopes explained between 47% and 94% of the variance in monthly δ18O and δ2H values at each monitoring site. A significant sinusoidal cycle was also observed in line‐conditioned excess. We interpolated the amplitudes, phases, and offsets of these sine functions across the landscape, using multiple linear …

Downscaling Africa’S Drought Forecasts Through Integration Of Indigenous And Scientific Drought Forecasts Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Muthoni Masinde, Mwanjele Mwagha, Tsegaye Tadesse

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In the wake of increased drought occurrences being witnessed in Sub-Saharan Africa, more localized and contextualized drought mitigation strategies are on the agendas of many researchers and policy makers in the region. The integration of indigenous knowledge on droughts with seasonal climate forecasts is one such strategy. The main challenge facing this integration, however, is the formal representation of highly-structured and holistic indigenous knowledge. In this paper, we demonstrate how the use of fuzzy cognitive mapping can address this challenge. Indigenous knowledge on droughts from five communities was modeled and represented using fuzzy cognitive maps. Maps from one of these …

Assessing Land Deformation And Sea Encroachment In The Nile Delta, Egypt, Esayas Gebremichael

Research and Creative Activities Poster Day

Persistent scatterer interferometric analyses were conducted on a stack of 84 Envisat ASAR scenes spanning 7 years (2004 to 2010) over the entire Nile Delta of Egypt and surroundings to monitor the ongoing spatial and temporal land deformation, identify the factors controlling the deformation, and model the interplay between sea level rise and land subsidence to identify areas and populations threatened by sea encroachment by the end of the 21st century. Findings include: (1) general patterns of subsidence in the northern delta, near-steady (none) subsidence in the southern delta, separated by a previously mapped flexure zone undergoing uplift; (2) high …

Validation Of New Satellite Rainfall Products Over The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Getachew Tesfaye Ayehu, Tsegaye Tadesse, Berhan Gessesse, Tufa Dinku

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Accurate measurement of rainfall is vital to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation at various scales. However, the conventional rain gauge observations in many parts of the world such as Ethiopia are sparse and unevenly distributed. An alternative to traditional rain gauge observations could be satellite-based rainfall estimates. Satellite rainfall estimates could be used as a sole product (e.g., in areas with no (or poor) ground observations) or through integrating with rain gauge measurements. In this study, the potential of a newly available Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) rainfall product has been evaluated in comparison …

Droughtscape- 2018 Spring, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

Drought shifts to south in beginning of 2018......................................... 3

Ag records impacts; strong fire season forecast .......... 5

Drought maps show regional and river forecast areas...................... 7

Greenness indicator could save lives in Africa ....................... 8

NDMC on a global playing field................................ 10

Visitors from Korea tap drought resources, experts ......................11

Svoboda named to UN advisory group ......................................... 12

Responding to drought in the Southern Plains ......................... 13

Crops, cattle and climatology in the Upper Niobrara .......................... 15

Connecting locally for global change....................................... 16

Precipitation Extremes In Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios Over The Greater Horn Of Africa, Andualem Shiferaw, Tsegaye Tadesse, Clinton M. Rowe, Robert Oglesby

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This study first assesses the performance of regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in reproducing observed extreme precipitation indices over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region during 1989–2005. The study then assesses projected changes in these extremes during 2069–2098 compared to 1976–2005. The Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations are made using two RCMs, with large-scale forcing from four CMIP5 Global limate Models(GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that RCM simulations have reasonably captured observed patterns of moderate precipitation extreme indices (MPEI). Pattern correlation coefficients between simulated and observed MPEI …

Landscapes From The Waves—Marine Terraces Of California, Marjorie Schulz, Corey Lawrence, Daniel R. Muhs, Carol Prentice, Sam Flanagan

Publications of the US Geological Survey

M any coastlines around the world have stair-step landforms, known as marine terraces. Marine terraces make up a large part of coastal California’s landscape—from San Diego to Crescent City. Find out how these landscapes form, why marine terraces are of interest to scientists, and where you can explore these landscapes.

Marine terraces result from the interaction of two geologic processes: uplift of the land surface and the natural rise and fall of sea level over hundreds of thousands of years. As sea level rises, waves move underwater sediment—sand and gravel—back and forth against bedrock, acting like sandpaper to hone bedrock …

Comparison Of The Performance Of Six Drought Indices In Characterizing Historical Drought For The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Yared Bayissa, Shreedhar Maskey, Tsegaye Tadesse, Schalk Jan Van Andel, Semu Moges, Ann Van Griensven, Dimitri Solomatine

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin is less-explored in terms of drought studies as compared to other parts of Ethiopia and lacks a basin-specific drought monitoring system. This study compares six drought indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI), Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI), Aggregate Drought Index (ADI), and Standardized Runoff-discharge Index (SRI), and evaluates their performance with respect to identifying historic drought events in the UBN basin. The indices were calculated using monthly time series of observed precipitation, average temperature, river discharge, and modeled evapotranspiration and soil moisture from 1970 to 2010. …

Factors Influencing Farmers’ Adoption Of Best Management Practices: A Review And Synthesis, Tingting Liu, Randall J. F. Bruins, Matthew T. Heberling

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Best management practices (BMPs) for reducing agricultural non-point source pollution are widely available. However, agriculture remains a major global contributor to degradation of waters because farmers often do not adopt BMPs. To improve water quality, it is necessary to understand the factors that influence BMP adoption by farmers. We review the findings of BMP adoption studies from both developed and developing countries, published after (or otherwise not included in) two major literature reviews from 2007 and 2008. We summarize the study locations, scales, and BMPs studied; the analytical methods used; the factors evaluated; and the directionality of each factor’s influence …

Developing A Remotely Sensed Drought Monitoring Indicator For Morocco, Noureddine Bijaber, Driss El Hadani, Mariam Saidi, Mark D. Svoboda, Christopher Hain, Calvin Christian Poulsen, Mohammed Yessef, Atmane Rochdi

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is one of the most serious climatic and natural disasters inflicting serious impacts on the socio-economy of Morocco, which is characterized both by low-average annual rainfall and high irregularity in the spatial distribution and timing of precipitation across the country. This work aims to develop a comprehensive and integrated method for drought monitoring based on remote sensing techniques. The main input parameters are derived monthly from satellite data at the national scale and are then combined to generate a composite drought index presenting different severity classes of drought. The input parameters are: Standardized Precipitation Index calculated from satellite-based precipitation …

Improving National And Regional Drought Early Warning Systems In The Greater Horn Of Africa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Nicole Wall, Michael Hayes, Mark Svoboda, Deborah `Bathke

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The workshop was conducted to discuss various new and existing seasonal models and experimental drought and vegetation prediction products with experts and decision-makers representing local (private, governmental, and nongovernmental organizations), regional, and international organizations in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Eighty-five participants met to discuss a strategic approach for improving drought early warning and food security systems in the GHA.

Drought Information Services For U.S. Agriculture, National Drought Mitigation Center

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

Enhancing U.S. Drought Monitor Services & Products

The USDM's weekly display of drought conditions is an important drought early-warning tool for agricultural producers and USDA professionals. Stakeholders that now rely on the USDM include:

• National policymakers who use the USDM as a measure for allocation of relief dollars;

• State governments that refer to the USDM to trigger drought response measures;

• Planners and researchers studying the effects of past droughts;

• Media professionals and educators looking for graphic representation of complex climate interactions.

Droughtscape- Winter 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Year in review: Drought eased in California, developed in Northern Plains......... 2

Quarterly Summary: Drought creeps across the country.............. 3

Annual impact summary: A year of wildfires.......... 4

Quarterly impact summary: Drought expands in Texas, Colorado............ 6

Drought and water crisis book updated............... 8

U.S. Drought Monitor available in Spanish........... 9

Study shows cities step up when drought occurs............... 10

New staff at the NDMC............. 11

Drought Summit in photos.............. 12

2018 Ndmc Annual, Mark Svoboda, Kelly Smith, Deborah Bathke, Brian Fuchs, Cody L. Knutson, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

Contents
01 From the director
02 Drought preparation toolkit tested in Nebraska available to all
03 Partnerships produce vulnerability assessments for tribes
04 Drought Monitor maps & stats localized for NWS offices
05 Producer workshops focus on latest drought management tools
06 2018 by the numbers
08 Where we were in 2018
10 New web-based form makes submitting drought observations easier
11 Five states began drought plan updates in 2018
12 Project brought drought management, monitoring skills to 4 countries
13 2018 Publication highlights
16 Collaboration
17 Team and partnerships

Assessing The Impact Of The Conservation Reserve Program On Honey Bee Health, Otto, C.R.V., O'Dell, S., Bryant, R.B., Euliss, N.H., Bush

Publications of the US Geological Survey

Insect pollinators are critically important for maintaining U.S. food production and ecosystem health. The upper Midwest is home to more than 40 percent of all U.S. honey bee colonies and is considered by many beekeepers to be America’s last beekeeping refuge. Beekeepers come to this region because their honey bees require high-quality grassland and bee-friendly agricultural crops to make honey and to improve bee health. Agricultural grassland, such as those enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), support flowers that provide bees with the pollen and nectar they need. In 2014, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the U.S. …

Adaptive Management In Native Grasslands Managed By The U.S. Fish And Wildlife Service—Implications For Grassland Birds, Lawrence D. Igl, Welsey E. Newton, Todd A. Grant, Cami S. Dixon

Publications of the US Geological Survey

Burning and grazing are natural processes in native prairies that also serve as important tools in grassland management to conserve plant diversity, to limit encroachment of woody and invasive plants, and to maintain or improve prairies. Native prairies managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) in the Prairie Pothole Region of the northern Great Plains have been extensively invaded by nonnative, cool-season species of grasses. These invasions were believed to reflect a common management history of long-term rest and little or no defoliation by natural processes (burning and grazing). To address the challenges associated with these invasive species, …

Appendix 1. Testing The Influence Of Management Regime And Year On Vegetation Structure Variables On Two Grass Types On Federal Lands Managed Under An Adaptive-Management Framework By The U.S. Fish And Wildlife Service In North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, And Montana, 2011–13, J.J Gannon, T.L. Shaffer, C.T. Moore

Publications of the US Geological Survey

Generalized linear mixed model (assuming a beta distribution with a logit link) testing the influence of management regime and year on mean bare-ground cover (percent) on two grass types on Federal lands managed under an adaptive-management framework by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Gannon and others, 2013) in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Montana, 2011–13.

The Pothole Hydrology-Linked Systems Simulator (Phyliss)—Development And Application Of A Systems Model For Prairie-Pothole Wetlands, Owen P. Mckenna, David M. Mushet, Eric J. Scherff, Kyle I. Mclean, Christopher T. Mills

Publications of the US Geological Survey

The North American Prairie Pothole Region covers about 770,000 square kilometers of the United States and Canada (including parts of 5 States and 3 provinces: North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Iowa, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta). The Laurentide Ice Sheet shaped the landscape of the region about 12,000 to 14,000 years ago. The retreat of the ice sheet left behind low-permeability glacial till and a landscape dotted with millions of depressions known today as prairie potholes. The wetlands that subsequently formed in these depressions, prairie-pothole wetlands, provide critical migratory-bird habitat and support dynamic aquatic communities. Extensive grasslands and productive agricultural …