Hydrology Commons^™

Building An Improved Drought Climatology Using Updated Drought Tools: A New Mexico Food-Energy-Water (Few) Systems Focus, Lindsay E. Johnson, Hatim M.E. Geli, Michael J. Hayes, Kelly Helm Smith

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a familiar climatic phenomenon in the United States Southwest, with complex human-environment interactions that extend beyond just the physical drought events. Due to continued climate variability and change, droughts are expected to become more frequent and/or severe in the future. Decision-makers are charged with mitigating and adapting to these more extreme conditions and to do that they need to understand the specific impacts drought has on regional and local scales, and how these impacts compare to historical conditions. Tremendous progress in drought monitoring strategies has occurred over the past several decades, with more tools providing greater spatial and …

An Assessment Of The Hydrological Trends Using Synergistic Approaches Of Remote Sensing And Model Evaluations Over Global Arid And Semi-Arid Regions, Wenzhao Li, Hesham El-Askary, Rejoice Thomas, Surya Prakash Tiwari, Karuppasamy Manikandan, Thomas Piechota, Daniele Struppa

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Drylands cover about 40% of the world’s land area and support two billion people, most of them living in developing countries that are at risk due to land degradation. Over the last few decades, there has been warming, with an escalation of drought and rapid population growth. This will further intensify the risk of desertification, which will seriously affect the local ecological environment, food security and people’s lives. The goal of this research is to analyze the hydrological and land cover characteristics and variability over global arid and semi-arid regions over the last decade (2010–2019) using an integrative approach of …

Characterizing El Niño-Southern Oscillation Effects On The Blue Nile Yield And The Nile River Basin Precipitation Using Empirical Mode Decomposition, Justin A. Le, Hesham El-Askary, Mohamed Allali, Eman Sayed, Hani Sweliem, Thomas C. Piechota, Daniele C. Struppa

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Using new mathematical and data-driven techniques, we propose new indices to measure and predict the strength of different El Niño events and how they affect regions like the Nile River Basin (NRB). Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), when applied to Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), yields three Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF) tracking recognizable and physically significant non-stationary processes. The aim is to characterize underlying signals driving ENSO as reflected in SOI, and show that those signals also meaningfully affect other physical processes with scientific and predictive utility. In the end, signals are identified which have a strong statistical relationship with various physical …

Mass And Number Size Distributions Of Rbc In Snow And Firn Samples From Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, Luciano Marquetto, Susan Kaspari, Jefferson Cardia Simões

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

An extended‐range Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) coupled to a Marin‐5 nebulizer was used to measure the refractory black carbon (rBC) mass and number size distributions in 1,004 samples from a West Antarctica snow/firn core. The SP2 was calibrated using Aquadag and a Centrifugal Particle Mass Analyzer for BC particles ranging from 0.5 to 800 fg. Our results indicate a significant contribution of rare, large particles of mass‐equivalent diameter (D_BC) > 500 nm to the total rBC mass (36%), while small particles (D_BC < 100 nm) are abundant but contribute <8% to total rBC mass. We observed a primary mass median diameter of 162 ± 40 nm, smaller than reported for snow in other regions of the globe but similar to East Antarctica rBC size distributions. In addition, we observed other modes at 673, 1,040, and >1,810 nm (uncontained mode). We compared two sets of samples from different seasons …

Forest Drought Response Index (Fordri): A New Combined Model To Monitor Forest Drought In The Eastern United States, Tsegaye Tadesse, David Y. Hollinger, Yared A. Bayissa, Mark Svoboda, Brian Fuchs, Beichen Zhang, Getachew Demissie, Brian D. Wardlow, Gil Bohrer, Kenneth L. Clark, Ankur R. Desai, Lianhong Gu, Asko Noormets, Kimberly A. Novick, Andrew D. Richardson

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Monitoring drought impacts in forest ecosystems is a complex process because forest ecosystems are composed of different species with heterogeneous structural compositions. Even though forest drought status is a key control on the carbon cycle, very few indices exist to monitor and predict forest drought stress. The Forest Drought Indicator (ForDRI) is a new monitoring tool developed by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) to identify forest drought stress. ForDRI integrates 12 types of data, including satellite, climate, evaporative demand, ground water, and soil moisture, into a single hybrid index to estimate tree stress. The model uses Principal Component Analysis …

Seasonal Grassland Productivity Forecast For The U.S. Great Plains Using Grass-Cast, Melannie D. Hartman, William J. Parton, Justin D. Derner, Darin K. Schulte, William K. Smith, Dannele E. Peck, Ken A. Day, Stephen J. Del Grosso, Susan Lutz, Brian Fuchs, Maosi Chen, Wei Gao

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Every spring, ranchers in the drought-prone U.S. Great Plains face the same difficult challenge —trying to estimate how much forage will be available for livestock to graze during the upcoming summer grazing season. To reduce this uncertainty in predicting forage availability, we developed an innovative new grassland productivity forecast system, named Grass-Cast, to provide science-informed estimates of growing season aboveground net primary production (ANPP). Grass-Cast uses over 30 yr of historical data including weather and the satellite-derived normalized vegetation difference index (NDVI)—combined with ecosystem modeling and seasonal precipitation forecasts—to predict if rangelands in individual counties are likely to produce below-normal, …

The Urban Heat Island Effect And Its Impact On The Climate And Landscape Of Phoenix, Arizona, Gurwinder Sahota, Nazrul I. Khandaker, Ali Zarine, Malek Shami

Publications and Research

This paper examines the impact of the urban heat island effect on the climate and landscape of Phoenix, Arizona. Urbanization is quickly becoming the most influential environmental factor because of the exponential growth in the human population coupled with industrialization, modernization, and commercialization, which has become the allure of urban centers worldwide. While urbanization offers numerous advantages, it comes at the cost of altering the environment by replacing permeable natural soils and vegetation with impermeable urban surfaces, such as pavements, buildings, and other such structures. This impervious modification results in absorption of solar energy that is taken up by the …

Satellite-Based Monitoring Of Irrigation Water Use: Assessing Measurement Errors And Their Implications For Agricultural Water Management Policy, T. Foster, Taro Mieno, Nicholas Brozovic

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Reliable accounting of agricultural water use is critical for sustainable water management. However, the majority of agricultural water use is not monitored, with limited metering of irrigation despite increasing pressure on both groundwater and surface water resources in many agricultural regions worldwide. Satellite remote sensing has been proposed as a low-cost and scalable solution to fill widespread gaps in monitoring of irrigation water use in both developed and developing countries, bypassing the technical, socioeconomic, and political challenges that to date have constrained in situ metering. In this paper, we show through a systematic meta-analysis that the relative accuracy of different …

Calibrating Human Attention As Indicator: Monitoring #Drought In The Twittersphere, Kelly Smith, Andrew Tyre, Zhenghong Tang, Michael Hayes, Adnan Akyuz

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

State climatologists and other expert drought observers have speculated about the value of monitoring Twitter for #drought and related hashtags. This study statistically examines the relationships between the rate of tweeting using #drought and related hashtags, within states, accounting for drought status and news coverage of drought. We collected and geolocated tweets, 2017–18, and used regression analysis and a diversity statistic to explain expected and identify unexpected volumes of tweets. This provides a quantifiable means to detect state-weeks with a volume of tweets that exceeds the upper limit of the prediction interval. To filter out instances where a high volume …

Application Of Excitation-Emission Matrices To Fluorescent Dye Tracing Of Groundwater Flow, Cayla M. Baughn

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Fluorescent dye tracing of groundwater is a technique employed particularly in carbonate rock karst regions to examine karst hydrology by mapping underground flow paths. It is important to understand the hydrology of karst environments because solutionally-enlarged conduits may allow the rapid influx of contaminants into the groundwater system. Fluorescent dye tracing involves the injection of a fluorescent dye into an appropriate injection site (sinking streams, sinkholes, or even through soil flushed with water) and is followed by sampling at sites where the dye may be recovered (typically springs). Various methods exist by which sampling may occur, but all methods ultimately …

Trend Of Thornthwaite's Aridity Index (Ai) At Atakpame (Togo), Komlan Koudahe

English Language Institute

Drought can severely affect agricultural production potential, destroying the local economy and creating famine. Data were collected (1990 to 2014) from the Meteorological Department of Togo. Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) varied with two peaks obtained on March 28 (5.84mm) and on November 17 (4.87mm). There was water deficit in all years except 2005 and 2007. Also, there was non-significant increasing trend of aridity index (AI). Specific actions should target efficient water management in Atakpame.

Using Climate To Explain And Predict West Nile Virus Risk In Nebraska, Kelly Helm Smith, Andrew J. Tyre, Jeff Hamik, Michael J. Hayes, Yuzhen Zhou, Li Dai

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

We used monthly precipitation and temperature data to give early warning of years with higher West Nile Virus (WNV) risk in Nebraska. We used generalized additive models with a negative binomial distribution and smoothing curves to identify combinations of extremes and timing that had the most influence, experimenting with all combinations of temperature and drought data, lagged by 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months. We fit models on data from 2002 through 2011, used Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to select the best‐fitting model, and used 2012 as out‐of‐sample data for prediction, and repeated this process for each successive year, …

The Post-Wildfire Impact Of Burn Severity And Age On Black Carbon Snow Deposition And Implications For Snow Water Resources, Cascade Range, Washington, Ted M. Uecker, Susan D. Kaspari, Keith N. Musselman, S. Mckenzie Skiles

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

Wildfires in the snow zone affect ablation by removing forest canopy, which enhances surface solar irradiance, and depositing light absorbing particles [LAPs, such as black carbon (BC)] on the snowpack, reducing snow albedo. How variations in BC deposition affects post-wildfire snowmelt timing is poorly known and highly relevant to water resources. We present a field-based analysis of BC variability across five sites of varying burn age and burn severity in the Cascade Range, Washington State, United States. Single particle soot photometer (SP2) analyses of BC snow concentrations were used to assess the impact of BC on snow albedo, and radiative …

Monitoring Residual Soil Moisture And Its Association To The Long-Term Variability Of Rainfall Over The Upper Blue Nile Basin In Ethiopia, Getachew Ayehu, Tsegaye Tadesse, Berhan Gessesse

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Monitoring soil moisture and its association with rainfall variability is important to comprehend the hydrological processes and to set proper agricultural water use management to maximize crop growth and productivity. In this study, the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) soil moisture product was applied to assess the dynamics of residual soil moisture in autumn (September to November) and its response to the long-term variability of rainfall in the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB) of Ethiopia from 1992 to 2017. The basin was found to have autumn soil moisture (ASM) ranging from 0.09–0.38 m³/m³, …

Hydrogeophysical Characterization And Imaging In The Mangrove Lakes Region Of Everglades National Park And Big Pine Key, Florida, Usa, Michael Eyob Kiflai

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Coastal groundwater aquifers are susceptible to saltwater intrusion from natural and anthropogenic sources. Everglades National Park (ENP) has been adversely impacted by past human activities that altered freshwater flow through the system. In Big Pine Key (BPK), the flat and low-lying topography less than 2m makes the freshwater lens vulnerable to tidal and storm surge events. This study investigated different inversion scenarios and used Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and Electromagnetic (EM) survey to characterize the spatial and temporal change of the groundwater chemistry and image the aquifers. In Big Pine Key, Hurricane Irma made landfall as a category 4 storm …

Long-Term Ndvi And Recent Vegetation Cover Profiles Of Major Offshore Island Nesting Sites Of Sea Turtles In Saudi Waters Of The Northern Arabian Gulf, Rommel H. Maneja, Jeffrey D. Miller, Wenzhao Li, Hesham El-Askary, Ace Vincent B. Flandez, Joshua J. Dagoy, Joselito Francis A. Alcaria, Abdullajid U. Basali, Khaled A. Al-Abdulkader, Ronald A. Loughland, Mohamed A. Qurban

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Vegetation is an important ecological component of offshore islands in the Arabian Gulf (AG), which maintains long-term resilience of these islands. This is achieved by influencing sediment retention and moisture acquisition via condensation during periods of high humidity and by providing a variety of microhabitats for island fauna. The resilience of offshore islands’ ecosystems in the Saudi waters is important because they host the largest number of nesting hawksbill and green turtles in the AG. This study defines the characteristics and the long-term trends in vegetation cover of the offshore islands used by sea turtles as nesting grounds in the …

Combined Use Of Sentinel‐1 Sar And Landsat Sensors Products For Residual Soil Moisture Retrieval Over Agricultural Fields In The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Getachew Ayehu, Tsegaye Tadesse, Berhan Gessesse, Yibeltal Yigrem, Assefa M. Melesse

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this paper is to investigate the potential of sentinel‐1 SAR sensor products and the contribution of soil roughness parameters to estimate volumetric residual soil moisture (RSM) in the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin, Ethiopia. The backscatter contribution of crop residue water content was estimated using Landsat sensor product and the water cloud model (WCM). The surface roughness parameters were estimated from the Oh and Baghdadi models. A feed‐forward artificial neural network (ANN) method was tested for its potential to translate SAR backscattering and surface roughness input variables to RSM values. The model was trained for three inversion …

A Hydrometeorological Assessment Of The Historic 2019 Flood Of Nebraska, Iowa, And South Dakota, Paul Xavier Flanagan, Rezaul Mahmood, Natalie Umphlett, Erin M.K. Haacker, Chittaranjan Ray, Bill Sorensen, Martha Shulski, Crystal J. Stiles, David Pearson, Paul Fajman

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

During early 2019, a series of events set the stage for devastating floods in eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, and southeastern South Dakota. When the floodwaters hit, dams and levees failed, cutting off towns, while destroying roads, bridges, and rail lines, further exacerbating the crisis. Lives were lost and thousands of cattle were stranded. Estimates indicate that the cost of the flooding has topped $3 billion as of August 2019, with this number expected to rise.

After a warm and wet start to winter, eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, and southeastern South Dakota endured anomalously low temperatures and record-breaking snowfall. By March …

Storm Surges In The Bohai Sea: The Role Of Waves And Tides, Yuanyi Li, Huan Feng, Guillaume Vigouroux, Dekui Yuan, Guangyu Zhang, Xiaodi Ma, Kun Lei

Department of Earth and Environmental Studies Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

A storm surge is a complex phenomenon in which waves, tide and current interact. Even though wind is the predominant force driving the surge, waves and tidal phase are also important factors that influence the mass and momentum transport during the surge. Devastating storm surges often occur in the Bohai Sea, a semi-enclosed shallow sea in North China, due to extreme storms. However, the effects of waves on storm surges in the Bohai Sea have not been quantified and the mechanisms responsible for the higher surges that affect part of the Bohai Sea have not been thoroughly studied. In this …

What Is The U.S. Drought Monitor?, National Drought Mitigation Center

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

The USDA uses the map as a trigger for programs that help agricultural producers recover from drought and other natural disasters:

Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP)

Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honeybees, and Farm Raised Fish Program (ELAP)

Fast-Track Secretarial Disaster Declarations

Emergency Loans Program

The U.S. Drought Monitor Network: Improving Drought Early Warning, The U.S. Drought Monitor Network

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

WHAT IS THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR NETWORK?

WHO ARE THE OBSERVERS?

WHAT BENEFITS?

The network in action

HOW DOES IT WORK?

WHO CREATES THE MAP?

Building Adaptive Capacity In Tribal Communities Of The Missouri River Basin To Manage Drought And Climate Extremes: A Case Study From The Wind River Indian Reservation, Crystal J. Stiles, Natalie Umphlett, Mitch Cottenoir

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

Native American peoples of the Northern and Central Plains have long endured harsh climate conditions, such as floods and droughts, and they possess valuable traditional knowledges that have enhanced their resilience to these extreme events. However, in recent times, limited capacity to adapt to a rapidly changing climate combined with a lack of resources have increased tribes’ vulnerability to climate extremes and their associated impacts. In response, a number of projects have been developed to assist tribes with their self-identified climate- and drought-related needs, particularly in the context of on-reservation decision-making. In this case study, we present an engagement strategy …

Sediment Outflow Under Simulated Rainfall Conditions With Varying Geotechnical Properties, Pranjay Joshi, Akhilesh Kumar, P. V. Singh, Jahangeer Jahangeer

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

The vulnerability of soil toward erosion might be reduced by having a good vegetative cover over the soil surface, slope improvement, and improving soil properties so that it is not easily detached and transported. However, the establishment of proper vegetative cover is a long process because it takes time for seeds to germinate and attain maturity. As an alternative approach, if soil resistance was increased by increasing the shear strength of soil against erosive forces offered by eroding agents, the soil system would become capable of withstanding the detachment of its particles on the application of shear stress. To achieve …

Earth Observation And Cloud Computing In Support Of Two Sustainable Development Goals For The River Nile Watershed Countries, Wenzhao Li, Hesham El-Askary, Venkat Lakshmi, Thomas Piechota, Daniele Struppa

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

In September 2015, the members of United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development with universal applicability of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets. The SDGs are consequential for the development of the countries in the Nile watershed, which are affected by water scarcity and experiencing rapid urbanization associated with population growth. Earth Observation (EO) has become an important tool to monitor the progress and implementation of specific SDG targets through its wide accessibility and global coverage. In addition, the advancement of algorithms and tools deployed in cloud computing platforms provide an equal opportunity to use EO …

Modeling Drought, Drought Teleconnection, And Its Effect On Groundwater Level Dynamics In The Biscayne Aquifer, Anteneh Z. Abiy

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Developing a self-sufficient water supply system in Southeast Florida is one input to the success of the ongoing restoration effort in the Everglades. Maintaining a high groundwater level in the urban side of the Biscayne Aquifer (BA) is important to sustain the urban water supply. However, the long-term groundwater table condition in the Biscayne Aquifer (BA) is threatened by a combination of drought, groundwater pumping, and sea-level rise. Further, the long-term drought pattern, drought drivers, and the aquifer’s response to drought and other stress conditions are not well known. As a result, options that would help to maintain a high …

Water Scarcity And Fish Imperilment Driven By Beef Production, Brian D. Richter, Dominique Bartak, Peter Caldwell, Kyle Fankel Davis, Peter Debaere, Arjen Y. Hoekstra, Tianshu Li, Landon Marston, Ryan Mcmanamay, Mesfin Mekonnen, Benjamin L. Ruddell, Richard R. Rushforth, Tara J. Troy

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Human consumption of freshwater is now approaching or surpassing the rate at which water sources are being naturally replenished in many regions, creating water shortage risks for people and ecosystems. Here we assess the impact of human water uses and their connection to water scarcity and ecological damage across the United States, identify primary causes of river dewatering and explore ways to ameliorate them. We find irrigation of cattle-feed crops to be the greatest consumer of river water in the western United States, implicating beef and dairy consumption as the leading driver of water shortages and fish imperilment in the …

Assessment Of An Automated Calibration Of The Sebal Algorithm To Estimate Dry-Season Surface-Energy Partitioning In A Forest–Savanna Transition In Brazil, Leonardo Laipelt, Anderson Luis Ruhoff, Ayan Santos Fleischmann, Rafael Henrique Bloedow Kayser, Elisa De Mello Kich, Humberto Ribeiro Da Rocha, Christopher Michael Usher Neale

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Evapotranspiration (ET) provides a strong connection between surface energy and hydrological cycles. Advancements in remote sensing techniques have increased our understanding of energy and terrestrial water balances as well as the interaction between surface and atmosphere over large areas. In this study, we computed surface energy fluxes using the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) algorithm and a simplified adaptation of the CIMEC (Calibration using Inverse Modeling at Extreme Conditions) process for automated endmember selection. Our main purpose was to assess and compare the accuracy of the automated calibration of the SEBAL algorithm using two different sources of meteorological …

Utilizing Objective Drought Severity Thresholds To Improve Drought Monitoring, Zachary T. Leasor, Steven M. Quiring, Mark D. Svoboda

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a prominent climatic hazard in the south-central United States. Drought severity is frequently classified using the categories established by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM). This study evaluates whether the thresholds for the standardized precipitation index (SPI) used by the USDM accurately classify drought severity. This study uses the SPI based on PRISM precipitation data from 1900 to 2015 to evaluate drought severity in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The results show that the fixed SPI thresholds for the USDM drought categories may lead to a systematic underestimation of drought severity in arid regions. To address this issue, objective drought …

A Design For A Sustained Assessment Of Climate Forcing And Feedbacks Related To Land Use And Land Cover Change, Thomas Loveland, Rezaul Mahmood

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

L and use and land cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in the climate system. Many studies have documented the impacts of LULCC on local, regional, and global climate. The National Climate Assessment Report (Melillo et al. 2014) identifies LULCC as a “cross cutting” issue of future climate change studies. This report, and the previous U.S. Climate Change Science Program strategic plan (2003), noted that land use and land cover (LULC) and its feedback is an important source of uncertainty within the climate system (Melillo et al. 2014). As a result, the report calls for a better understanding of …

Risk And Cost Assessment Of Nitrate Contamination In Domestic Wells, Pongpun Juntakut, Erin M.K. Haacker, Daniel D. Snow, Chittaranjan Ray

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

This study combines empirical predictive and economics models to estimate the cost of remediation for domestic wells exceeding suggested treatment thresholds for nitrates. A multiple logistic regression model predicted the probability of well contamination by nitrate, and a life cycle costing methodology was used to estimate costs of nitrate contamination in groundwater in two areas of Nebraska. In south-central Nebraska, 37% of wells were estimated to be at risk of exceeding a threshold of 7.5 mg/L as N, and 17% were at risk of exceeding 10 mg/L as N, the legal limit for human consumption in the United States. In …