Hydrology Commons^™

How Is Flash Drought Understood?—Experts’ Definitions And Decision-Makers’ Perceptions, Caily Schwartz, Tonya Haigh, Mark D. Svoboda, Madeline Goebel

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Because flash drought is a relatively new phenomenon in drought research, defining the concept is critical for scientists and decision-makers. Having detrimental impacts on many sectors, it is important to have a consistent definition and understanding of flash drought, between experts and stakeholders, to provide early warning to the community. This study focuses on onset and progression of conditions and demonstrates the difference in flash drought identification for 15 events across six quantitative definitions of flash drought that use the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM). Five flash drought events have been studied in the literature while 10 additional events have been …

The Patchwork Governance Of Ecologically Available Water: A Case Study In The Upper Missouri Headwaters, Montana, United States, Amanda E. Cravens, Julia B. Goolsby, Theresa Jedd, Deborah J. Bathke, Shelley Crausbay, Ashley E. Cooper, Jason Dunham, Tonya Haigh, Kimberly R. Hall, Michael J. Hayes, Jamie Mcevoy, Rebecca L. Nelson, Markéta Poděbradská, Aaron Ramirez, Elliot Wickham, Dionne Zoanni

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Institutional authority and responsibility for allocating water to ecosystems (“ecologically available water” [EAW]) is spread across local, state, and federal agencies, which operate under a range of statutes, mandates, and planning processes. We use a case study of the Upper Missouri Headwaters Basin in southwestern Montana, United States, to illustrate this fragmented institutional landscape. Our goals are to (a) describe the patchwork of agencies and institutional actors whose intersecting authorities and actions influence the EAW in the study basin; (b) describe the range of governance mechanisms these agencies use, including laws, policies, administrative programs, and planning processes; and (c) assess …

The Last Drought Frontier: Building A Drought Index For The State Of Alaska, Olivia Campbell

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Drought is characterized by periods of below average precipitation. There are five major types of drought recognized in the literature: meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, socioeconomic, and ecological. A relatively new concept in the drought literature is “snow drought.” A key part of the definition of drought is that it is not always accompanied by extreme heat. This means drought can occur even in cold climates, cold seasons, and higher latitudes and altitudes, like Alaska. Drought is a natural part of climate variability, but Alaska’s climate is changing faster than any other state in the United States. Alaska is no stranger to …

A Workshop On Using Nasa Airs Data To Monitor Drought For The U.S. Drought Monitor, Alireza Farahmand,, Sharon Ray, Heidar Thrastarson, Stephen Licata, Stephanie Granger, Brian Fuchs

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Recent studies indicate that drought indicators based on near-surface air relative humidity (RH), air temperature (T), and air vapor pressure deficit (VPD), derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite can detect the onset of drought earlier than other drought indicators, specifically standardized precipitation index (SPI), which is widely used for drought onset detection. A recent study showed that standardized relative humidity index (SRHI) can detect drought signals earlier than SPI (Farahmand et al. 2015). Relative humidity is a climate variable defined as the ratio of air vapor pressure to saturated vapor pressure. Precipitation and relative …

Future Colorado River Basin Drought And Surplus, Rama Bedri, Thomas Piechota

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Historical and future drought and surplus periods in the Colorado River basin are evaluated based on eight climate scenarios. Unimpaired streamflow from 17 stations in the Colorado River are evaluated based on U.S. Geological Survey, Bureau of Reclamation, and Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Projection 5 downscaled data from 1950–2099. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios are considered for four climate models (HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, MI-ROC5). Drought (surplus) quantities, magnitudes, severities, and water year flows are compared for the historical and future periods. Results indicate that there is a significant difference between the historical record and future projections. The …

Getting Ahead Of Flash Drought: From Early Warning To Early Action, Jason A. Otkin, Molly Woloszyn, Hailan Wang, Mark D. Svoboda, Marina Skumanich, Roger Pulwarty, Joel Lisonbee, Andrew Hoell, Mike Hobbins, Tonya Haigh, Amanda E. Cravens

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Flash droughts, characterized by their unusually rapid intensification, have garnered increasing attention within the weather, climate, agriculture, and ecological communities in recent years due to their large environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Because flash droughts intensify quickly, they require different early warning capabilities and management approaches than are typically used for slower-developing “conventional” droughts. In this essay, we describe an integrated research-and-applications agenda that emphasizes the need to reconceptualize our understanding of flash drought within existing drought early warning systems by focusing on opportunities to improve monitoring and prediction. We illustrate the need for engagement among physical scientists, social scientists, operational …

Changes In Western U.S. Streamflow Extremes Under Climate Change, Rama Bedri

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

We are analyzing streamflow extremes in Western U.S. rivers due to climate change. Global warming causes natural disasters to reach extreme points and affects river volumes, snowfall, and precipitation amounts. We analyze the data for 17 stations in the Colorado River Basin, whose rivers provide Southern California’s drinking water supply. Disruptions in streamflow due to climate change affect the region’s water availability and make it difficult to predict future trends. We compared historical streamflow data to eight possible climate scenarios. The different scenarios are Warm Dry, Cool Wet, Average, and Other at emission levels of RCP 4.5 and 8.5. First, …

Ranchers’ Use Of Drought Contingency Plans In Protective Action Decision Making, Tonya Haigh, Michael Hayes, Jolene Smyth, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Charles A. Francis, Mark Burbach

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought contingency planning is an increasingly common tool in the ranchers’ climate adaptation toolboxes, but its effect on drought response has not yet been evaluated. We use cognitive models of protective action decision making and planning to explore the effects of having a drought plan on the use of drought early warning information and drought response (and timing). Results of a cross-sectional, probability-based survey of livestock producers affected by a 2016 flash-drought are used to describe the characteristics of operations with drought plans and provide evidence of whether having a plan predicts drought information use and response. While larger operations …

Building An Improved Drought Climatology Using Updated Drought Tools: A New Mexico Food-Energy-Water (Few) Systems Focus, Lindsay E. Johnson, Hatim M.E. Geli, Michael J. Hayes, Kelly Helm Smith

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a familiar climatic phenomenon in the United States Southwest, with complex human-environment interactions that extend beyond just the physical drought events. Due to continued climate variability and change, droughts are expected to become more frequent and/or severe in the future. Decision-makers are charged with mitigating and adapting to these more extreme conditions and to do that they need to understand the specific impacts drought has on regional and local scales, and how these impacts compare to historical conditions. Tremendous progress in drought monitoring strategies has occurred over the past several decades, with more tools providing greater spatial and …

Critical Analysis Of The Value Of Drought Information And Impacts On Land Management And Public Health, Tingting Liu, Kelly Helm Smith, Richard Krop, Tonya Haigh, Mark Svoboda

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This paper reviews previous efforts to assign monetary value to climatic or meteorological information, such as public information on drought, climate, early warning systems, and weather forecast information. Methods and tools that have been explored to examine the benefits of climatic and meteorological information include the avoided cost, contingent valuation, choice experiments, benefit transfer, and descriptive approaches using surveys. The second part of this paper discusses specific considerations related to valuing drought information for public health and the Bureau of Land Management. We found a multitude of connections between drought and the land management and health sectors in the literature. …

Evaluating Future Reservoir Storage In The Rio Grande Using Normalized Climate Projections And A Water Balance Model, Nolan T. Townsend

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

We develop and implement new tools for assessing the future of surface water supplies in downstream reaches of the Rio Grande, for which Elephant Butte Reservoir is the major storage reservoir. First, a normalization procedure is developed to adjust natural Rio Grande streamflows simulated by dynamical models in downstream reaches. The normalization accounts for upstream anthropogenic impairments to flow that are not considered in the model, thereby yielding downstream flows closer to observed values and more appropriate for use in assessments of future flows in downstream reaches. The normalization is applied to assess the potential effects of climate change on …

Conducting A Drought-Specific Thira (Threat And Hazard Identification And Risk Assessment): A Powerful Tool For Integrating All-Hazard Mitigation And Drought Planning Efforts To Increase Drought Mitigation Quality, Elliot Wickham, Deborah J. Bathke, Tarik Abdel-Monem, Tonya K. Bernadt, Denise Bulling, Lisa M. Pytlikzillig, Crystal J. Stiles, Nicole Wall

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

In the United States, drought is the second costliest natural disaster, which leads to the need for increased drought mitigation efforts over time. However, drought planning has lagged behind other hazard mitigation efforts, which is likely due to the lack of a national drought planning policy. Although the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requires all jurisdictions have a hazard mitigation plan (HMP) to receive pre-disaster mitigation funds, drought has only recently been a requirement in HMPs. In 2012, Nebraska witnessed its worse drought in recent history, which exposed the gaps in drought planning effectiveness at all jurisdictional levels. To address …

Understanding The Food Water Nexus: Characterizing The Impact Of Climatological Anomalies On Agrosystems, Patrick M. Wurster Jr.

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

Climate variability at global and regional scales is escalating with increased atmospheric carbon and is expected to magnify the intensity and duration of meteorological extremes, especially droughts. From the many environmental stresses that diminish crop production (e.g., soil salinity, frost, soil erosion) drought is one of the most prevalent. This study focuses on the sensitivity of three key crops produced in the northwestern United States to climatological anomalies, while controlling for attribution using anomalies in price. The study differs from similar studies in that we focus on variability in production which captures both yield (tonnes/ha) and cropping area (ha), as …

Drought And Land-Cover Conditions In The Great Plains, Heather Tollerud, Jesslyn Brown, Thomas Loveland, Rezaul Mahmood, Norman Bliss

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

Land–atmosphere interactions play a critical role in the Earth system, and a better understanding of these interactions could improve weather and climate models. The interaction among drought, vegetation productivity, and land cover is of particular significance. In a semiarid environment, such as the U.S. Great Plains, droughts can have a large influence on the productivity of agriculture and grasslands, with serious environmental and economic impacts. Here, we used the vegetation drought response index (VegDRI) drought indicator to investigate the response of vegetation to weather and climate for landcover types in the Great Plains in the United States from 1989 to …

Do Advisors Perceive Climate Change As An Agricultural Risk? An In-Depth Examination Of Midwestern U.S. Ag Advisors’ Views On Drought, Climate Change, And Risk Management, Sarah P. Church, Michael Dunn, Nicholas Babin, Amber Saylor Mase, Tonya Haigh, Linda Stalker Prokopy

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Through the lens of the Health Belief Model and Protection Motivation Theory, we analyzed interviews of 36 agricultural advisors in Indiana and Nebraska to understand their appraisals of climate change risk, related decision making processes and subsequent risk management advice to producers. Most advisors interviewed accept that weather events are a risk for US Midwestern agriculture; however, they are more concerned about tangible threats such as crop prices. There is not much concern about climate change among agricultural advisors. Management practices that could help producers adapt to climate change were more likely to be recommended by conservation and Extension advisors, …

Separating Decadal Global Water Cycle Variability From Sea Level Rise, B. D. Hamlington, J. T. Reager, M.-H. Lo, K. B. Karnauskas, R. R. Leben

CCPO Publications

Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both …

Information Mining From Heterogeneous Data Sources: A Case Study On Drought Predictions, Getachew B. Demisse, Tsegaye Tadesse, Solomon Atnafu, Shawndra Hill, Brian D. Wardlow, Yared Bayissa, Andualem Shiferaw

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this study was to develop information mining methodology for drought modeling and predictions using historical records of climate, satellite, environmental, and oceanic data. The classification and regression tree (CART) approach was used for extracting drought episodes at different time-lag prediction intervals. Using the CART approach, a number of successful model trees were constructed, which can easily be interpreted and used by decision makers in their drought management decisions. The regression rules produced by CART were found to have correlation coefficients from 0.71–0.95 in rules-alone modeling. The accuracies of the models were found to be higher in the …

Agricultural Trade Publications And The 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought: A Missed Opportunity For Climate Risk Communication, Sarah P. Church, Tonya Haigh, Melissa Widhalm, Silvestre Garcia De Jalon, Nicholas Babin, J. Stuart Carlton, Michael Dunn, Katie Fagan, Cody L. Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Midwestern United States experienced a devastating drought in 2012, leading to reduced corn and soybean yields and increased instances of pests and disease. Climate change induced weather variability and extremes are expected to increase in the future, and have and will continue to impact the agricultural sector. This study investigated how agricultural trade publications portrayed the 2012 U.S. Midwestern drought, whether climate change was associated with drought, and whether these publications laid out transformative adaptation measures farmers could undertake in order to increase their adaptive capacity for future climate uncertainty. We performed a content analysis of 1000 media reports …

Slides: Water Allocation And Water Markets In Spain, Nuria Hernández-Mora

Coping with Water Scarcity in River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned from Shared Experiences (Martz Summer Conference, June 9-10)

Presenter: Nuria Hernández Mora, Universidad de Sevilla, Spain

22 slides

Slides: The Columbia River Basin, Barbara Cosens

Coping with Water Scarcity in River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned from Shared Experiences (Martz Summer Conference, June 9-10)

Presenter: Barbara Cosens, Professor and Associate Dean of Faculty, University of Idaho College of Law, Waters of the West Interdisciplinary Program

16 slides

Agenda: Coping With Water Scarcity In River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned From Shared Experiences, University Of Colorado Boulder. Getches-Wilkinson Center For Natural Resources, Energy, And The Environment

Coping with Water Scarcity in River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned from Shared Experiences (Martz Summer Conference, June 9-10)

Water scarcity is increasingly dominating headlines throughout the world. In the southwestern USA, the looming water shortages on the Colorado River system and the unprecedented drought in California are garnering the greatest attention. Similar stories of scarcity and crisis can be found across the globe, suggesting an opportunity for sharing lessons and innovations. For example, the Colorado River and Australia's Murray-Darling Basin likely can share many lessons, as both systems were over-allocated, feature multiple jurisdictions, face similar climatic risks and drought stresses, and struggle to balance human demands with environmental needs. In this conference we cast our net broadly, exploring …

Slides: Food For Thought: Water Requirements For Social-Ecological Systems, Michael Douglas, Sue Jackson

Coping with Water Scarcity in River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned from Shared Experiences (Martz Summer Conference, June 9-10)

Presenters:

Michael Douglas, University of Western Australia, Charles Darwin University

Sue Jackson, Griffith University

35 slides

Drought And Health In The Context Of Public Engagement, Nicole Wall, Michael Hayes

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Droughts have profoundly affected societies around the world from the earliest beginnings. A recent estimate from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) claims that more than 1 billion people have been affected by drought during the twenty-year period between 1994 and 2013. Because of the characteristics of drought, drought impacts are often difficult to identify and quantify, and this is especially true with public health-oriented drought consequences, including those resulting from low water quantities, poor water quality, mental health and stress, dust and windblown agents, and wildlife intrusion. However, when officials emphasize adopting a proactive risk …

New Tools For Assessing Drought Conditions For Rangeland Management, Cody Knutson, Brian Fuchs

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Historical drought assessment and ongoingmonitoring is essential for understanding past drought occurrence, the relationships between past drought and its impacts, and for triggering action during current drought events. • A variety of new products have recently been developed to better monitor drought conditions and assess past occurrences at the local scale. • A growing number of resources are available to assist rangeland managers to develop a monitoring system and incorporate it into a drought management plan.

Rangeland Responses To Predicted Increases In Drought Extremity, David D. Breshears, Alan K. Knapp, Darin J. Law, Melinda D. Smith, Dirac L. Twidwell, Carissa L. Wonkka

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Rangeland managers actively focus on the potential to induce a shift in a site to an alternative state, but predicted changes in climate, particularly the likelihood of more extreme drought, necessitate reevaluating risks for alternative states. • Rangelands will differ in their susceptibility to undergo state changes due to climate change in general and for droughts of the future, in particular, which may be hotter. • Trees, shrubs, and grasses are expected to differ in their sensitivity to drought, with trees likely being most sensitive; this affects the likelihood for state changes in grasslands, shrublands, woodlands, and savannas. • Considering …

A Historical Perspective On Nebraska’S Variable And Changing Climate, Martha Shulski, William Baule, Crystal J. Stiles, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

Nebraska is situated at the intersection of the northern and southern Great Plains, exhibiting a dramatic longitudinal gradient for precipitation and humidity, and benefiting from groundwater resources. The continental climate is highly variable temporally both for temperature and precipitation. Our assessment of long-term meteorological observations shows that over the last century the annual average temperature in Nebraska has warmed approximately 0.6°C, which is similar to the increase in the global average temperature over the same time period. Furthermore, we found minimum temperatures have warmed more than maximum temperatures, and winter and spring show the strongest warming. We found no significant …

Drought Triggers And Declarations: Science And Policy Considerations For Drought Risk Management, Linda Courtenay Botterill, Michael J. Hayes

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This paper explores the value of triggers and declarations in the management of drought, bringing together two disciplinary perspectives, those of the public policy scholar and the climate scientist. These two perspectives highlight the complexity of the development and use of triggers in drought risk management by drawing on the experience of the United States, which has the most sophisticated system of drought triggers in the world, and that of Australia that has the most developed and longest standing national drought policy based on principles of risk management. The paper explores the advantages and disadvantages of triggers in managing drought, …

Slides: Smart Fallowing: New Strategies In Ag Forbearance, Bonnie Colby

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Dr. Bonnie Colby, Department of Agriculture & Resource Economics, University of Arizona

34 slides

Fact Sheet: Study Of Long-Term Augmentation Options For The Water Supply Of The Colorado System, Black & Veatch, Ch2m Hill

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

1 page.

"March 2008"

Material submitted by Les Lampe, Colorado River Water Consultants, for "Augmentation Options" program, Session 3: Mapping a New Course, Panel F: Some Policy Options and Solutions.

Colorado River Water Consultants is a project-specific partnership of engineering firms Black & Veatch and CH2MHill.

Slides: Law Of Colorado River: Where We Are, Where We Are Going, Steven M. Fitten

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Steven M. Fitten, Chief Counsel, International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC)

14 slides