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Geophysics and Seismology Commons

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Portland State University

Earthquake prediction -- California

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Appendix C—Deformation Models For Ucerf3, Tom Parsons, Kaj M. Johnson, Peter Bird, Jayne Bormann, Timothy E. Dawson, Edward H. Field, William C. Hammond, Thomas A. Herring, Robert Mccaffrey, Zheng-Kang Shen, Wayne R. Thatcher, Ray J. Weldon Ii, Yuehua Zeng Jan 2013

Appendix C—Deformation Models For Ucerf3, Tom Parsons, Kaj M. Johnson, Peter Bird, Jayne Bormann, Timothy E. Dawson, Edward H. Field, William C. Hammond, Thomas A. Herring, Robert Mccaffrey, Zheng-Kang Shen, Wayne R. Thatcher, Ray J. Weldon Ii, Yuehua Zeng

Geology Faculty Publications and Presentations

This document describes efforts to best characterize seismogenic deformation in and near California. The rate of hazardous earthquakes in California is expected to be proportional to deformation rates; in particular, the rates at which faults slip. Fault slip rates are determined from offsets of geologic and geomorphic features of measured age and by modeling geodetically determined surface displacement rates. Extensive use of geodesy in the form of Global Positioning System (GPS) observations is a new feature brought into the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) forecasts for the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3) model. Geodetic measurements …