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Full-Text Articles in Geophysics and Seismology
Bounding The Moment Deficit Rate On Crustal Faults Using Geodetic Data: Application To Southern California, Jeremy Maurer, Kaj Johnson, Paul Segall
Bounding The Moment Deficit Rate On Crustal Faults Using Geodetic Data: Application To Southern California, Jeremy Maurer, Kaj Johnson, Paul Segall
Geosciences and Geological and Petroleum Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works
The interseismic moment deficit rate (MDR) constrains the potential for future moment release in earthquakes. Published estimates of the geodetic MDR in Southern California vary by a factor of 3 depending on the type of forward model, method of estimation, and data quality. It is our aim to determine to what degree these discrepancies may be explained by quantifying the uncertainty for a given class of forward models, accounting for data errors and limited model resolution. We apply a new method, the Constrained Optimization Bounding Estimator, to bound the MDR in Southern California using geodetic data and an elastic plate-block …
Bounding The Moment Deficit Rate On Crustal Faults Using Geodetic Data: Methods, Jeremy Maurer, Paul Segall, Andrew M. Bradley
Bounding The Moment Deficit Rate On Crustal Faults Using Geodetic Data: Methods, Jeremy Maurer, Paul Segall, Andrew M. Bradley
Geosciences and Geological and Petroleum Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works
The geodetically derived interseismic moment deficit rate (MDR) provides a first-order constraint on earthquake potential and can play an important role in seismic hazard assessment, but quantifying uncertainty in MDR is a challenging problem that has not been fully addressed. We establish criteria for reliable MDR estimators, evaluate existing methods for determining the probability density of MDR, and propose and evaluate new methods. Geodetic measurements moderately far from the fault provide tighter constraints on MDR than those nearby. Previously used methods can fail catastrophically under predictable circumstances. The bootstrap method works well with strong data constraints on MDR, but can …