Geophysics and Seismology Commons^™

Increased Caribbean Seismicity And Volcanism During Minima In Earth's Rotation Rate: Search For A Physical Mechanism And A 2030 Forecast, Roger Bilham, Walter Szeliga, David Mencin, Rebecca Bendick

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

Three quarters of all Mw ≥ 6.6 earthquakes and volcanic eruptions surrounding the Caribbean plate occur preferentially during periods of decadal minima in Earth’s angular spin velocity. This correlation is revealed most clearly as a 4–6 years phase lag following the first derivative of the length of the day (LOD), Earth’s angular deceleration. We show that local strains and displacements resulting from oblateness changes, or plate boundary stresses associated with changes in tropical rotation rates are orders of magnitude lower than those typically associated with earthquake or volcano triggering. Notwithstanding the absence of a satisfactory causal physical mechanism, the relationship …