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Full-Text Articles in Geophysics and Seismology
Testing Aftershock Forecasts Using Bayesian Methods, Elisa Dong
Testing Aftershock Forecasts Using Bayesian Methods, Elisa Dong
Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository
The presence of strong aftershocks can increase the seismic hazard following a large earthquake and should be considered for operational earthquake forecasting and risk management. Aftershock forecasts are generated from seismicity models during the evolution of the aftershock sequence. This work compares quantitative test results of the forecasting abilities for three competing aftershock rate models - the modified Omori law, the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model, and the compound Omori law - to identify the best performing model for forecasting the largest aftershock during the early aftershock sequence. Forecasts of large aftershock probabilities are generated by either the Extreme Value …
Statistical Modeling And Characterization Of Induced Seismicity Within The Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, Sid Kothari
Statistical Modeling And Characterization Of Induced Seismicity Within The Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, Sid Kothari
Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository
In western Canada, there has been an increase in seismic activity linked to anthropogenic energy-related operations including conventional hydrocarbon production, wastewater fluid injection and more recently hydraulic fracturing (HF). Statistical modeling and characterization of the space, time and magnitude distributions of the seismicity clusters is vital for a better understanding of induced earthquake processes and development of predictive models. In this work, a statistical analysis of the seismicity in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin was performed across past and present time periods by utilizing a compiled earthquake catalogue for Alberta and eastern British Columbia. Specifically, the frequency-magnitude statistics were analyzed …