Geology Commons^™

Past And Future Drought In Mongolia, Amy Hessl, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Casey Jelsema, Benjamin Cook, Oyunsannaa Byambasuren, Caroline Leland, Baatarbileg Nachin, Neil Pederson, Hanqin Tian, Laia Andreu Hayles

Faculty & Staff Scholarship

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future pro- jections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the …