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Full-Text Articles in Theory and Algorithms
Prediction: The Quintessential Model Validation Test, Wayne Wakeland
Prediction: The Quintessential Model Validation Test, Wayne Wakeland
Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series
It is essential to objectively test how well policy models predict real world behavior. The method used to support this assertion involves the review of three SD policy models emphasizing the degree to which the model was able to fit the historical outcome data and how well model-predicted outcomes matched real world outcomes as they unfolded. Findings indicate that while historical model agreement is a favorable indication of model validity, the act of making predictions without knowing the actual data, and comparing these predictions to actual data, can reveal model weaknesses that might be overlooked when all of the available …
Random Automata Networks: Why Playing Dice Is Not A Vice, Christof Teuscher
Random Automata Networks: Why Playing Dice Is Not A Vice, Christof Teuscher
Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series
Random automata networks consist of a set of simple compute nodes interacting with each other. In this generic model, one or multiple model parameters, such as the the node interactions and/or the compute functions, are chosen at random. Random Boolean Networks (RBNs) are a particular case of discrete dynamical automata networks where both time and states are discrete. While traditional RBNs are generally credited to Stuart Kauffman (1969), who introduced them as simplified models of gene regulation, Alan Turing proposed unorganized machines as early as 1948. In this talk I will start with Alan Turing's early work on unorganized machines, …