Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Applied Mathematics Commons™

Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Epidemiology

Selected Works

Articles 1 - 5 of 5

Full-Text Articles in Applied Mathematics

Seasonal Forcing In Stochastic Epidemiology Models, Lora Billings, Eric Forgoston Nov 2017

Seasonal Forcing In Stochastic Epidemiology Models, Lora Billings, Eric Forgoston

Lora Billings

The goal of this paper is to motivate the need and lay the foundation for the analysis of stochastic epidemiological models with seasonal forcing.We consider stochastic SIS and SIR epidemic models, where the internal noise is due to the random interactions of individuals in the population. We provide an overview of the general theoretic framework that allows one to understand noise-induced rare events, such as spontaneous disease extinction. Although there are many paths to extinction, there is one path termed the optimal path that is probabilistically most likely to occur. By extending the theory, we have identified the quasi-stationary solutions …

Go to article

Seasonal Forcing In Stochastic Epidemiology Models, Lora Billings, Eric Forgoston Nov 2017

Seasonal Forcing In Stochastic Epidemiology Models, Lora Billings, Eric Forgoston

Eric Forgoston

The goal of this paper is to motivate the need and lay the foundation for the analysis of stochastic epidemiological models with seasonal forcing.We consider stochastic SIS and SIR epidemic models, where the internal noise is due to the random interactions of individuals in the population. We provide an overview of the general theoretic framework that allows one to understand noise-induced rare events, such as spontaneous disease extinction. Although there are many paths to extinction, there is one path termed the optimal path that is probabilistically most likely to occur. By extending the theory, we have identified the quasi-stationary solutions …

Go to article

Multistrain Infections In Metapopulations, Sydney Garmer, Rachel Lynn, Dan Rossi, Alex Capaldi Dec 2014

Multistrain Infections In Metapopulations, Sydney Garmer, Rachel Lynn, Dan Rossi, Alex Capaldi

Alex Capaldi

Viruses and bacteria responsible for infectious diseases often mutate and are carried between geographical regions. We consider a mathematical model which begins to account for these factors. We assume two disjoint populations that only occasionally co-mingle and two strains of a disease present in these populations. Of interest are the equations describing the dynamics of this system, the conditions under which epidemics will occur, and the long term behavior of the system under various initial conditions. We fi#12;nd general conditions
under which a state of disease-free equilibrium is stable. Additionally, we #12;find existence of a biologically relevant equilibrium where two …

Go to article

Interactions Between Serotypes Of Dengue Highlight Epidemiological Impact Of Cross-Immunity, Nicholas Reich, Sourya Shrestha, Aaron King, Pejman Rohani, Justin Lessler, Siripen Kalayanarooj, In-Kyu Yoon, Robert Gibbons, Donald Burke, Derek Cummings Jan 2013

Interactions Between Serotypes Of Dengue Highlight Epidemiological Impact Of Cross-Immunity, Nicholas Reich, Sourya Shrestha, Aaron King, Pejman Rohani, Justin Lessler, Siripen Kalayanarooj, In-Kyu Yoon, Robert Gibbons, Donald Burke, Derek Cummings

Nicholas G Reich

Dengue, a mosquito-borne virus of humans, infects over 50 million people annually. Infection with any of the four dengue serotypes induces protective immunity to that serotype, but does not confer long-term protection against infection by other serotypes. The immunological interactions between sero- types are of central importance in understanding epidemiological dynamics and anticipating the impact of dengue vaccines. We analysed a 38-year time series with 12 197 serotyped dengue infections from a hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. Using novel mechanistic models to represent different hypothesized immune interactions between serotypes, we found strong evidence that infec- tion with dengue provides substantial short-term …

Go to article

Hopf Bifurcation In Models For Pertussis Epidemiology, Herbert W. Hethcote, Yi Li, Zhujun Jing Dec 1999

Hopf Bifurcation In Models For Pertussis Epidemiology, Herbert W. Hethcote, Yi Li, Zhujun Jing

Yi Li

Pertussis (whooping cough) incidence in the United States has oscillated with a period of about four years since data was first collected in 1922. An infection with pertussis confers immunity for several years, but then the immunity wanes, so that reinfection is possible. A pertussis reinfection is mild after partial loss of immunity, but the reinfection can be severe after complete loss of immunity. Three pertussis transmission models with waning of immunity are examined for periodic solutions. Equilibria and their stability are determined. Hopf bifurcation of periodic solutions around the endemic equilibrium can occur for some parameter values in two …

Go to article