Applied Mathematics Commons^™

Predicting Successful Long-Term Weight Loss From Short-Term Weight-Loss Outcomes: New Insights From A Dynamic Energy Balance Model (The Pounds Lost Study), Diana Thomas, W Andrada Ivanescu, Corby K. Martin, Steven B. Heymsfield, Kaitlyn Marshall, Victoria E. Bodrato, Donald Williamson, Stephen Anton, Frank M. Sacks, Donna Ryan, George A. Bray

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Background: Currently, early weight-loss predictions of long-term weight-loss success rely on fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds.

Objective: The objective was to develop thresholds during the first 3 mo of intervention that include the influence of age, sex, baseline weight, percent weight loss, and deviations from expected weight to predict whether a participant is likely to lose 5% or more body weight by year 1.

Design: Data consisting of month 1, 2, 3, and 12 treatment weights were obtained from the 2-y Preventing Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS Lost) intervention. Logistic regression models that included covariates of age, height, sex, baseline weight, …

Dynamics Of Starvation In Humans, Baojun Song, Diana M. Thomas

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

A differential equation model describing the dynamics of stored energy in the form of fat mass, lean body mass and ketone body mass during prolonged starvation is developed. The parameters of the model are estimated using available data for 7 days into starvation. A simulation of energy stores for a normal individual with body mass index between 19 and 24 and an obese individual with body mass index over 30 are calculated. The length of time the obese subject can survive during prolonged starvation is estimated using the model.