Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Barriers And Bridges To The Integration Of Social–Ecological Resilience And Law, Olivia Odom Green, Ahjond S. Garmestani, Craig R. Allen, Lance H. Gunderson, J.B. Ruhl, Craig A. Arnold, Nicholas A.J. Graham, Barbara Cosens, David G. Angeler, Brian C. Chaffin, C.S. Holling

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

There is a fundamental difference between the ways in which ecologists and lawyers view uncertainty: in the study of ecology, uncertainty provides a catalyst for exploration, whereas uncertainty is antithetical to the rule of law. This issue is particularly troubling in environmental management, where the tensions between law and ecology become apparent. Rather than acknowledge uncertainties in management actions, legal frameworks often force a false sense of certainty in linking cause and effect. While adaptive management has been developed to deal with uncertainty, laws and legal wrangling can be obstacles to implementation. In this article, we recommend resilience-based governance – …

Quantifying The Adaptive Cycle, David G. Angeler, Craig R. Allen, Ahjond S. Garmestani, Lance H. Gunderson

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term …

Across-Ecoregion Analysis Suggests A Hierarchy Of Ecological Filters That Regulate Recruitment Of A Globally Invasive Fish, Przemek G. Bajer, Timothy K. Cross, Joseph D. Lechelt, Christopher J. Chizinski, Michael J. Weber, Peter W. Sorensen

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Aim -- Even successful invaders are abundant only in a fraction of locales they inhabit. One of the main challenges in invasion ecology is explaining processes that drive these patterns. We investigated recruitment of a globally invasive fish, common carp (Cyprinus carpio), across three ecoregions to determine the role of environmental characteristics, predatory communities and propagule pressure on the invasion process at coarse and fine spatial scales.

Location -- Lakes across Northern Forest, Temperate Forest and Great Plains ecoregions of North America.

Methods -- We used data from 567 lakes to model presence or absence of carp recruitment …

The Importance Of Scaling For Detecting Community Patterns: Success And Failure In Assemblages Of Introduced Species, Craig R. Allen, David G. Angeler, Michael P. Moulton, Crawford S. Holling

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Community saturation can help to explain why biological invasions fail. However, previous research has documented inconsistent relationships between failed invasions (i.e., an invasive species colonizes but goes extinct) and the number of species present in the invaded community. We use data from bird communities of the Hawaiian island of Oahu, which supports a community of 38 successfully established introduced birds and where 37 species were introduced but went extinct (failed invasions). We develop a modified approach to evaluate the effects of community saturation on invasion failure. Our method accounts (1) for the number of species present (NSP) when the species …

The Effects Of Harvest Regulations On Behaviors Of Duck Hunters, Matthew T. Haugen, Larkin A. Powell, Mark P. Vrtiska, Kevin L. Pope

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Uncertainty exists as to how duck harvest regulations influence waterfowl hunter behavior. We used the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Parts Collection Survey to examine how harvest regulations affected behaviors of Central Flyway duck hunters. We stratified hunters into ranked groups based on seasonal harvest and identified three periods (1975–1984, 1988–1993, 2002–2011) that represented different harvest regulations (moderate, restrictive, and liberal, respectively; season length and daily bag limits smallest in restrictive seasons and largest in liberal seasons). We examined variability of seven measures of duck hunter behaviors across the periods: days harvesting ducks, daily harvest, hunter mobility, mallard (Anas platyrhynchos …

Accuracy Or Precision: Implications Of Sample Design And Methodology On Abundance Estimation, Lucas K. Kowalewski, Christopher J. Chizinski, Larkin A. Powell, Kevin L. Pope, Mark A. Pegg

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Sampling by spatially replicated counts (point-count) is an increasingly popular method of estimating population size of organisms. Challenges exist when sampling by point-count method, and it is often impractical to sample entire area of interest and impossible to detect every individual present. Ecologists encounter logistical limitations that force them to sample either few large-sample units or many small sample-units, introducing biases to sample counts. We generated a computer environment and simulated sampling scenarios to test the role of number of samples, sample unit area, number of organisms, and distribution of organisms in the estimation of population sizes using N-mixture …

Predictions Of Future Ephemeral Springtime Waterbird Stopover Habitat Availability Under Global Change, Daniel R. Uden, Craig R. Allen, Andrew A. Bishop, Roger Grosse, Christopher F. Jorgensen, Theodore G. Lagrange, Randy G. Stutheit, Mark P. Vrtiska

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

In the present period of rapid, worldwide change in climate and landuse (i.e., global change), successful biodiversity conservation warrants proactive management responses, especially for long-distance migratory species. However, the development and implementation of management strategies can be impeded by high levels of uncertainty and low levels of control over potentially impactful future events and their effects. Scenario planning and modeling are useful tools for expanding perspectives and informing decisions under these conditions. We coupled scenario planning and statistical modeling to explain and predict playa wetland inundation (i.e., presence/absence of water) and ponded area (i.e., extent of water) in the Rainwater …

Drougthscape- Winter 2015, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report...........................1

Central U.S. 2012 report..............3

Oct.-Dec. drought summary ........ 4

2014 drought summary................6

Caribbean capacity building ........ 8

Drought impacts in 2014..............9

California timeline 2014.............12

UC Davis ranching workshop .... 14

NASA SMAP data......................16

Global drought info system........17

Community Capitals .................. 18

Evaluation and assessment.......19

Indicator-impact research .........20

NDMC on YouTube....................21

2015 Nebraska Water Monitoring Programs Report, Marty Link, Ryan Chapman

Nebraska Department of Environmental Quality: Reports

The Nebraska Department of Environmental Quality (NDEQ) is charged with monitoring, assessing, and to the extent possible, managing the state’s water resources. The purpose of this work is to protect and maintain high quality water and encourage or execute activities to improve poor water quality. Monitoring is done on nearly 17,000 miles of flowing rivers and streams, more than 134,000 acres of surface water in lakes and reservoirs, as well as the vast storage of groundwater in Nebraska’s aquifers.

On Underestimation Of Global Vulnerability To Tree Mortality And Forest Die-Off From Hotter Drought In The Anthropocene, Craig D. Allen, David D. Breshears, Nate G. Mcdowell

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broadscale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—‘‘hotter drought’’, an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene—are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortalityrelevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO2] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases …

New Atlas Features Corn Belt Farmers' Perspectives On Agriculture And Climate, John Tyndall, J. Gordon Arbuckle, Tonya Haigh, Cody L. Knutson, Lois Wright Morton, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Melissa Widhalm

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Farmer Perspectives on Agriculture and Weather Variability in the Corn Belt: A Statistical Atlas is a new publication available online at . The atlas includes maps and tables that make it easy for readers to gauge farmer perspectives within the US Corn Belt. Topics covered include farmer beliefs about climate change, attitudes toward actions in response to increased weather variability, risk perceptions, and experiences with weather extremes. This region-specific information on farmers' climate change and risk beliefs is designed to help Extension personnel tailor the climate adaptation and education programming they offer in their region.

Masked Expression Of Life- History Traits In A Highly Variable Environment, Jason A. Deboer, Joseph J. Fontaine, Christopher J. Chizinski, Kevin L. Pope

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Differing life-history strategies may act as a constraint on reproductive expression that ultimately limits the ability of individual species to respond to changes in the magnitude or frequency of environmental variation, and potentially underlies the variation oft en inherent in phenotypic and evolved responses to anthropogenic change. Alternatively, if there are environmental cues that predict reproductive potential, differential expression of life-history strategies may represent differences in the adaptive capacity to optimize current reproductive value given variation in environmental conditions. We compared several aspects of walleye Sander vitreus spawning ecology at two reservoirs that diff er in environmental variability (i.e., annual …

Experimental Evaluation Of Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus Mykiss Predation On Longnose Dace Rhinichthys Cataractae, Kelly C. Turek, Mark A. Pegg, Kevin L. Pope

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Laboratory and in-stream enclosure experiments were used to determine whether rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss influence survival of longnose dace Rhinichthys cataractae. In the laboratory, adult rainbow trout preyed on longnose dace in 42% of trials and juvenile rainbow trout did not prey on longnose dace during the first 6 h after rainbow trout introduction. Survival of longnose dace did not differ in the presence of adult rainbow trout previously exposed to active prey and those not previously exposed to active prey (x²₁ = 0.28, P = 0.60). In field enclosures, the number of longnose dace decreased at …

Effects Of Alternative Framing On The Publics Perceived Importance Of Environmental Conservation, Amanda E. Sorensen, Daniel Clark, Rebecca C. Jordan

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

Effective communication of science to the general public is important for numerous reasons, including support for policy, funding, informed public decision making, among others. Prior research has found that scientists participating in public policy and public communication must frame their communication efforts in order to connect with audiences. A frame is the mechanism that individuals use to understand and interpret the world around them. Framing can encourage specific interpretations and reference points for a particular issue or event; especially when meaning is negotiated between the media and public audiences. In this study, we looked at the effect of framing within …

The Gravity Environment Of Zhouqu Debris Flow Of August 2010 And Its Implication For Future Recurrence, Diandong Ren, Lance M. Leslie, Xinyi Shen, Yang Hong, Qingyun Duan, Rezaul Mahmood, Yun Li, Gang Huang, Weidong Guo, Mervyn J. Lynch

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

This study investigates the geological background of the August 7-8, 2010 Zhouqu debris flows in the northwestern Chinese province of Gansu, and possible future occurrence of such hazards in the peri-Tibetan Plateau (TP) regions. Debris flows are a more predictable type of landslide because of its strong correlation with extreme precipitation. However, two factors affecting the frequency and magnitude of debris flows: very fine scale precipitation and degree of fracture of bedrock, both defy direct observations. Annual mean Net Primary production (NPP) is used as a surrogate for regional precipitation with patchiness filtered out, and gravity satellite measured regional mass …

Development Of A Long-Term (1884-2006) Serially Complete Dataset Of U.S. Temperatures And Precipitation For Climate Services, Jinshing You, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Martha Shulski, Mark D. Svoboda, Michael J. Hayes

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

Serially complete climate datasets with no missing data are necessary for a diverse group of users working in many economic sectors. In this article we describe the procedures used to create a Serially Complete Data set (SCD) for the U.S. We include the selection criterion applied to potential SCD stations, the various procedural steps and the details applied to each step. A few observations that were not previously digitized were obtained from observers official paper reports. The methods used to estimate missing data are the Spatial Regression Test and the Inverse Distance Weighting technique. Using the criterion for selecting stations …

A Historical Perspective On Nebraska’S Variable And Changing Climate, Martha Shulski, William Baule, Crystal J. Stiles, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Personnel Publications

Nebraska is situated at the intersection of the northern and southern Great Plains, exhibiting a dramatic longitudinal gradient for precipitation and humidity, and benefiting from groundwater resources. The continental climate is highly variable temporally both for temperature and precipitation. Our assessment of long-term meteorological observations shows that over the last century the annual average temperature in Nebraska has warmed approximately 0.6°C, which is similar to the increase in the global average temperature over the same time period. Furthermore, we found minimum temperatures have warmed more than maximum temperatures, and winter and spring show the strongest warming. We found no significant …