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Articles 31 - 60 of 183
Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Judge-Jury Agreement In Criminal Cases: A Partial Replication Of Kalven And Zeisel's The American Jury, Theodore Eisenberg, Paula L. Hannaford-Agor, Valerie P. Hans, Nicole L. Waters, G. Thomas Munsterman, Stewart J. Schwab, Martin T. Wells
Judge-Jury Agreement In Criminal Cases: A Partial Replication Of Kalven And Zeisel's The American Jury, Theodore Eisenberg, Paula L. Hannaford-Agor, Valerie P. Hans, Nicole L. Waters, G. Thomas Munsterman, Stewart J. Schwab, Martin T. Wells
Stewart J Schwab
This study uses a new criminal case data set to partially replicate Kalven and Zeisel's classic study of judge-jury agreement. The data show essentially the same rate of judge-jury agreement as did Kalven and Zeisel for cases tried almost 50 years ago. This study also explores judge-jury agreement as a function of evidentiary strength (as reported by both judges and juries), evidentiary complexity (as reported by both judges and juries), legal complexity (as reported by judges), and locale. Regardless of which adjudicator's view of evidentiary strength is used, judges tend to convict more than juries in cases of "middle" evidentiary …
An Empirical Analysis Of Ceo Employment Contracts: What Do Top Executives Bargain For?, Stewart J. Schwab, Randall S. Thomas
An Empirical Analysis Of Ceo Employment Contracts: What Do Top Executives Bargain For?, Stewart J. Schwab, Randall S. Thomas
Stewart J Schwab
No abstract provided.
How Employment-Discrimination Plaintiffs Fare In The Federal Courts Of Appeals, Kevin M. Clermont, Theodore Eisenberg, Stewart J. Schwab
How Employment-Discrimination Plaintiffs Fare In The Federal Courts Of Appeals, Kevin M. Clermont, Theodore Eisenberg, Stewart J. Schwab
Stewart J Schwab
Employment-discrimination plaintiffs swim against the tide. Compared to the typical plaintiff, they win a lower proportion of cases during pretrial and after trial. Then, many of their successful cases are appealed. On appeal, they have a harder time in upholding their successes, as well in reversing adverse outcome. This tough story does not describe some tiny corner of the litigation world. Employment-discrimination cases constitute an increasing fraction of the federal civil docket, now reigning as the largest single category of cases at nearly 10 percent. In this article, we use official government data to describe the appellate phase of this …
Using The Bootstrap For Estimating The Sample Size In Statistical Experiments, Maher Qumsiyeh
Using The Bootstrap For Estimating The Sample Size In Statistical Experiments, Maher Qumsiyeh
Maher Qumsiyeh
Efron’s (1979) Bootstrap has been shown to be an effective method for statistical estimation and testing. It provides better estimates than normal approximations for studentized means, least square estimates and many other statistics of interest. It can be used to select the active factors - factors that have an effect on the response - in experimental designs. This article shows that the bootstrap can be used to determine sample size or the number of runs required to achieve a certain confidence level in statistical experiments.
Comparison Of Re-Sampling Methods To Generalized Linear Models And Transformations In Factorial And Fractional Factorial Designs, Maher Qumsiyeh, Gerald Shaughnessy
Comparison Of Re-Sampling Methods To Generalized Linear Models And Transformations In Factorial And Fractional Factorial Designs, Maher Qumsiyeh, Gerald Shaughnessy
Maher Qumsiyeh
Experimental situations in which observations are not normally distributed frequently occur in practice. A common situation occurs when responses are discrete in nature, for example counts. One way to analyze such experimental data is to use a transformation for the responses; another is to use a link function based on a generalized linear model (GLM) approach. Re-sampling is employed as an alternative method to analyze non-normal, discrete data. Results are compared to those obtained by the previous two methods.
Marginal Structural Models: An Application To Incarceration And Marriage During Young Adulthood, Valerio Bacak, Edward Kennedy
Marginal Structural Models: An Application To Incarceration And Marriage During Young Adulthood, Valerio Bacak, Edward Kennedy
Edward H. Kennedy
Advanced methods for panel data analysis are commonly used in research on family life and relationships, but the fundamental issue of simultaneous time-dependent confounding and mediation has received little attention. In this article the authors introduce inverse-probability-weighted estimation of marginal structural models, an approach to causal analysis that (unlike conventional regression modeling) appropriately adjusts for confounding variables on the causal pathway linking the treatment with the outcome. They discuss the need for marginal structural models in social science research and describe their estimation in detail. Substantively, the authors contribute to the ongoing debate on the effects of incarceration on marriage …
On The Interpretation Of Multi-Year Estimates Of The American Community Survey As Period Estimates, Chaitra Nagaraja, Tucker Mcelroy
On The Interpretation Of Multi-Year Estimates Of The American Community Survey As Period Estimates, Chaitra Nagaraja, Tucker Mcelroy
Chaitra H Nagaraja
The rolling sample methodology of the American Community Survey introduces temporal distortions, resulting in Multi-Year Estimates that measure aggregate activity over three or five years. This paper introduces a novel, nonparametric method for quantifying the impact of viewing multi-year estimates as functions of single-year estimates belonging to the same time span. The method is based on examining the changes to confidence interval coverage. As an application of primary interest, the interpretation of a multi-year estimate as the simple average of single-year estimates is a viewpoint that underpins the published estimates of sampling variability. Therefore it is vital to ascertain the …
Financial Statement Fraud Detection Using Supervised Learning Methods (Ph.D. Dissertation), Adrian Gepp
Financial Statement Fraud Detection Using Supervised Learning Methods (Ph.D. Dissertation), Adrian Gepp
Adrian Gepp
No abstract provided.
Promoting Similarity Of Model Sparsity Structures In Integrative Analysis Of Cancer Genetic Data, Shuangge Ma
Promoting Similarity Of Model Sparsity Structures In Integrative Analysis Of Cancer Genetic Data, Shuangge Ma
Shuangge Ma
In profiling studies, the analysis of a single dataset often leads to unsatisfactory results because of the small sample size. Multi-dataset analysis utilizes information across multiple independent datasets and outperforms single-dataset analysis. Among the available multi-dataset analysis methods, integrative analysis methods aggregate and analyze raw data and outperform meta-analysis methods, which analyze multiple datasets separately and then pool summary statistics. In this study, we conduct integrative analysis and marker selection under the heterogeneity structure, which allows different datasets to have overlapping but not necessarily identical sets of markers. Under certain scenarios, it is reasonable to expect some similarity of identified …
Predicting Financial Distress: A Comparison Of Survival Analysis And Decision Tree Techniques, Adrian Gepp, Kuldeep Kumar
Predicting Financial Distress: A Comparison Of Survival Analysis And Decision Tree Techniques, Adrian Gepp, Kuldeep Kumar
Adrian Gepp
Financial distress and then the consequent failure of a business is usually an extremely costly and disruptive event. Statistical financial distress prediction models attempt to predict whether a business will experience financial distress in the future. Discriminant analysis and logistic regression have been the most popular approaches, but there is also a large number of alternative cutting – edge data mining techniques that can be used. In this paper, a semi-parametric Cox survival analysis model and non-parametric CART decision trees have been applied to financial distress prediction and compared with each other as well as the most popular approaches. This …
Case Studies In Evaluating Time Series Prediction Models Using The Relative Mean Absolute Error, Nicholas G. Reich, Justin Lessler, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Stephen A. Lauer, Sopon Iamsirithaworn, Derek A T Cummings
Case Studies In Evaluating Time Series Prediction Models Using The Relative Mean Absolute Error, Nicholas G. Reich, Justin Lessler, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Stephen A. Lauer, Sopon Iamsirithaworn, Derek A T Cummings
Nicholas G Reich
Statistical prediction models inform decision-making processes in many real-world settings. Prior to using predictions in practice, one must rigorously test and validate candidate models to ensure that the proposed predictions have sufficient accuracy to be used in practice. In this paper, we present a framework for evaluating time series predictions that emphasizes computational simplicity and an intuitive interpretation using the relative mean absolute error metric. For a single time series, this metric enables comparisons of candidate model predictions against naive reference models, a method that can provide useful and standardized performance benchmarks. Additionally, in applications with multiple time series, this …
Simulating Univariate And Multivariate Nonnormal Distributions Through The Method Of Percentiles, Jennifer Koran, Todd C. Headrick, Tzu Chun Kuo
Simulating Univariate And Multivariate Nonnormal Distributions Through The Method Of Percentiles, Jennifer Koran, Todd C. Headrick, Tzu Chun Kuo
Todd Christopher Headrick
This article derives a standard normal-based power method polynomial transformation for Monte Carlo simulation studies, approximating distributions, and fitting distributions to data based on the method of percentiles. The proposed method is used primarily when (1) conventional (or L) moment-based estimators such as skew (or L-skew) and kurtosis (or L -kurtosis) are unknown or (2) data are unavailable but percentiles are known (e.g., standardized test score reports). The proposed transformation also has the advantage that solutions to polynomial coefficients are available in simple closed form and thus obviates numerical equation solving. A procedure is also described for simulating power method …
Optimal Full Matching For Survival Outcomes: A Method That Merits More Widespread Use, Peter Austin, Elizabeth Stuart
Optimal Full Matching For Survival Outcomes: A Method That Merits More Widespread Use, Peter Austin, Elizabeth Stuart
Peter Austin
Matching on the propensity score is a commonly used analytic method for estimating the effects of treatments on outcomes. Commonly used propensity score matching methods include nearest neighbor matching and nearest neighbor caliper matching. Rosenbaum (1991) proposed an optimal full matching approach, in which matched strata are formed consisting of either one treated subject and at least one control subject or one control subject and at least one treated subject. Full matching has been used rarely in the applied literature. Furthermore, its performance for use with survival outcomes has not been rigorously evaluated. We propose a method to use full …
Reconciling Experimental Incoherence With Real-World Coherence In Punitive Damages, Theodore Eisenberg, Jeffrey J. Rachlinski, Martin T. Wells
Reconciling Experimental Incoherence With Real-World Coherence In Punitive Damages, Theodore Eisenberg, Jeffrey J. Rachlinski, Martin T. Wells
Jeffrey J. Rachlinski
Experimental evidence generated in controlled laboratory studies suggests that the legal system in general, and punitive damages awards in particular, should display an incoherent pattern. According to the prediction, inexperienced decisionmakers, such as juries, should fail to convert their qualitative judgments of defendants' conduct into consistent, meaningful dollar amounts. This Article tests this prediction and finds modest support for the thesis that experience across different types of cases will lead to greater consistency in awards. Despite this support, numerous studies of damage awards in real cases detect a generally sensible pattern of damage awards. This Article tries to reconcile the …
Implicit Racial Attitudes Of Death Penalty Lawyers, Theodore Eisenberg, Sheri Lynn Johnson
Implicit Racial Attitudes Of Death Penalty Lawyers, Theodore Eisenberg, Sheri Lynn Johnson
Sheri Lynn Johnson
Defense attorneys commonly suspect that the defendant's race plays a role in prosecutors' decisions to seek the death penalty, especially when the victim of the crime was white. When the defendant is convicted of the crime and sentenced to death, it is equally common for such attorneys to question the racial attitudes of the jury. These suspicions are not merely partisan conjectures; ample historical, statistical, and anecdotal evidence supports the inference that race matters in capital cases. Even the General Accounting Office of the United States concludes as much. Despite McCleskey v. Kemp, in which the United States Supreme Court …
The Effects Of Intent: Do We Know How Legal Standards Work?, Theodore Eisenberg, Sheri Lynn Johnson
The Effects Of Intent: Do We Know How Legal Standards Work?, Theodore Eisenberg, Sheri Lynn Johnson
Sheri Lynn Johnson
No one knows how the intent standard works in racial discrimination cases, though many have speculated. To test the speculation, this study examines how the intent standard actually operates. Its findings cast doubt on whether we really know how any legal standard functions.
Probing "Life Qualification" Through Expanded Voir Dire, John H. Blume, Sheri Lynn Johnson, A. Brian Threlkeld
Probing "Life Qualification" Through Expanded Voir Dire, John H. Blume, Sheri Lynn Johnson, A. Brian Threlkeld
Sheri Lynn Johnson
The conventional wisdom is that most trials are won or lost in jury selection. If this is true, then in many capital cases, jury selection is literally a matter of life or death. Given these high stakes and Supreme Court case law setting out standards for voir dire in capital cases, one might expect a sophisticated and thoughtful process in which each side carefully considers which jurors would be best in the particular case. Instead, it turns out that voir dire in capital cases is woefully ineffective at the most elementary task--weeding out unqualified jurors. Empirical evidence reveals that many …
Expert Testimony In Capital Sentencing: Juror Responses, John H. Montgomery, J. Richard Ciccone, Stephen P. Garvey, Theodore Eisenberg
Expert Testimony In Capital Sentencing: Juror Responses, John H. Montgomery, J. Richard Ciccone, Stephen P. Garvey, Theodore Eisenberg
Stephen P. Garvey
The U.S. Supreme Court, in Furman v. Georgia (1972), held that the death penalty is constitutional only when applied on an individualized basis. The resultant changes in the laws in death penalty states fostered the involvement of psychiatric and psychologic expert witnesses at the sentencing phase of the trial, to testify on two major issues: (1) the mitigating factor of a defendant’s abnormal mental state and (2) the aggravating factor of a defendant’s potential for future violence. This study was an exploration of the responses of capital jurors to psychiatric/psychologic expert testimony during capital sentencing. The Capital Jury Project is …
The Emotional Economy Of Capital Sentencing, Stephen P. Garvey
The Emotional Economy Of Capital Sentencing, Stephen P. Garvey
Stephen P. Garvey
You often hear that one reason capital jurors condemn capital defendants is that jurors don't empathize with defendants. And one reason they don't empathize is that the process of capital sentencing is rigged against empathy. Using data from the South Carolina segment of the Capital Jury Project, I try to examine the role emotion plays in capital sentencing. Without entering here all the important and necessary caveats, I find that the self-reported emotional responses jurors have toward capital defendants run the gamut from sympathy and pity at one extreme, to disgust, anger, and fear at the other. What causes these …
But Was He Sorry? The Role Of Remorse In Capital Sentencing, Theodore Eisenberg, Stephen P. Garvey, Martin T. Wells
But Was He Sorry? The Role Of Remorse In Capital Sentencing, Theodore Eisenberg, Stephen P. Garvey, Martin T. Wells
Stephen P. Garvey
What role does remorse really play in capital sentencing? We divide this basic question in two. First, what makes jurors come to believe a defendant is remorseful? Second, does a belief in the defendant's remorse affect the jury's final judgment of life or death? Here we present a systematic, empirical analysis that tries to answer these questions. What makes jurors think a defendant is remorseful? Among other things, we find that the more jurors think that the crime is coldblooded, calculated, and depraved and that the defendant is dangerous, the less likely they are to think the defendant is remorseful. …
Jury Responsibility In Capital Sentencing: An Empirical Study, Theodore Eisenberg, Stephen P. Garvey, Martin T. Wells
Jury Responsibility In Capital Sentencing: An Empirical Study, Theodore Eisenberg, Stephen P. Garvey, Martin T. Wells
Stephen P. Garvey
The law allows executioners to deny responsibility for what they have done by making it possible for them to believe they have not done it. The law treats members of capital sentencing juries quite differently. It seeks to ensure that they feel responsible for sentencing a defendant to death. This differential treatment rests on a presumed link between a capital sentencer's willingness to accept responsibility for the sentence she imposes and the accuracy and reliability of that sentence. Using interviews of 153 jurors who sat in South Carolina capital cases, this article examines empirically whether capital sentencing jurors assume responsibility …
Forecasting Life And Death: Juror Race, Religion, And Attitude Toward The Death Penalty, Theodore Eisenberg, Stephen P. Garvey, Martin T. Wells
Forecasting Life And Death: Juror Race, Religion, And Attitude Toward The Death Penalty, Theodore Eisenberg, Stephen P. Garvey, Martin T. Wells
Stephen P. Garvey
Determining whether race, sex, or other juror characteristics influence how capital case jurors vote is difficult. Jurors tend to vote for death in more egregious cases and for life in less egregious cases no matter what their own characteristics. And a juror's personal characteristics may get lost in the process of deliberation because the final verdict reflects the jury's will, not the individual juror's. Controlling for the facts likely to influence a juror's verdict helps to isolate the influence of a juror's personal characteristics. Examining each juror's first sentencing vote reveals her own judgment before the majority works its will. …
Virginia's Capital Jurors, Stephen P. Garvey, Paul Marcus
Virginia's Capital Jurors, Stephen P. Garvey, Paul Marcus
Stephen P. Garvey
Next to Texas, no state has executed more capital defendants than Virginia. Moreover, the likelihood of a death sentence actually being carried out is greater in Virginia than it is elsewhere, while the length of time between the imposition of a death sentence and its actual execution is shorter. Virginia has thus earned a reputation among members of the defense bar as being among the worst of the death penalty states. Yet insofar as these facts about Virginia's death penalty relate primarily to the behavior of state and federal appellate courts, they suggest that what makes Virginia's death penalty unique …
The Merciful Capital Juror, Theodore Eisenberg, Stephen P. Garvey
The Merciful Capital Juror, Theodore Eisenberg, Stephen P. Garvey
Stephen P. Garvey
We examine the role of mercy in capital sentencing along three dimensions. We first explain why mercy is a philosophically problematic virtue, and second, why it presently holds an ambiguous status within constitutional doctrine. Finally, we draw on interviews with jurors who served on capital cases in order better to understand how the behavior of merciful jurors compares to the behavior of their less merciful counterparts. Among other things, we find that merciful jurors tend to be better educated and to attend religious services regularly. We also find that merciful jurors are, as one might reasonably expect, more apt to …
The Deadly Paradox Of Capital Jurors, Theodore Eisenberg, Stephen P. Garvey, Martin T. Wells
The Deadly Paradox Of Capital Jurors, Theodore Eisenberg, Stephen P. Garvey, Martin T. Wells
Stephen P. Garvey
We examine support for the death penalty among a unique group of respondents: one hundred and eighty-seven citizens who actually served as jurors on capital trials in South Carolina. Capital jurors support the death penalty as much as, if not more than, members of the general public. Yet capital jurors, like poll respondents, harbor doubts about the penalty's fairness. Moreover, jurors--black jurors and Southern Baptists in particular--are ready to abandon their support for the death penalty when the alternative to death is life imprisonment without the possibility of parole, especially when combined with a requirement of restitution. Support for the …
Xenophilia In American Courts, Kevin M. Clermont, Theodore Eisenberg
Xenophilia In American Courts, Kevin M. Clermont, Theodore Eisenberg
Kevin M. Clermont
Foreigner! The word says it all. Verging on the politically incorrect, the expression is full of connotation and implication. A foreigner will face bias. By such a thought process, many people believe that litigants have much to fear in courts foreign to them. In particular, non-Americans fare badly in American courts. Foreigners believe this. Even Americans believe this. Such views about American courts are understandable. After all, the grant of alienage jurisdiction to the federal courts, both original and removal, constitutes an official assumption that xenophobic bias is present in state courts. As James Madison said of state courts: “We …
Exorcising The Evil Of Forum-Shopping, Kevin Clermont, Theodore Eisenberg
Exorcising The Evil Of Forum-Shopping, Kevin Clermont, Theodore Eisenberg
Kevin M. Clermont
Most of the business of litigation comprises pretrial disputes. A common and important dispute is over where adjudication should take place. Civil litigators deal with nearly as many change-of-venue motions as trials. The battle over venue often constitutes the critical issue in a case. The American way is to provide plaintiffs with a wide choice of venues for suit. But the American way has its drawbacks. To counter these drawbacks, an integral part of our court systems, and in particular the federal court system, is the scheme of transfer of venue "in the interest of justice." However, the leading evaluative …
How Employment-Discrimination Plaintiffs Fare In The Federal Courts Of Appeals, Kevin Clermont, Theodore Eisenberg, Stewart Schwab
How Employment-Discrimination Plaintiffs Fare In The Federal Courts Of Appeals, Kevin Clermont, Theodore Eisenberg, Stewart Schwab
Kevin M. Clermont
Employment-discrimination plaintiffs swim against the tide. Compared to the typical plaintiff, they win a lower proportion of cases during pretrial and after trial. Then, many of their successful cases are appealed. On appeal, they have a harder time in upholding their successes, as well in reversing adverse outcome. This tough story does not describe some tiny corner of the litigation world. Employment-discrimination cases constitute an increasing fraction of the federal civil docket, now reigning as the largest single category of cases at nearly 10 percent. In this article, we use official government data to describe the appellate phase of this …
Courts In Cyberspace, Theodore Eisenberg, Kevin M. Clermont
Courts In Cyberspace, Theodore Eisenberg, Kevin M. Clermont
Kevin M. Clermont
No abstract provided.
Foreigners' Fate In America's Courts: Empirical Legal Research, Kevin Clermont, Theodore Eisenberg
Foreigners' Fate In America's Courts: Empirical Legal Research, Kevin Clermont, Theodore Eisenberg
Kevin M. Clermont
This article revisits the controversy regarding how foreigners fare in U.S. courts. The available data, if taken in a sufficiently big sample from numerous case categories and a range of years, indicate that foreigners have fared better in the federal courts than their domestic counterparts have fared. Thus, the data offer no support for the existence of xenophobic bias in U.S. courts. Nor do they establish xenophilia, of course. What the data do show is that case selection drives the outcomes for foreigners. Foreigners’ aversion to U.S. forums can elevate the foreigners’ success rates, when measured as a percentage of …