Influenza Humans Commons^™

A Global Map Of Hemispheric Influenza Vaccine Recommendations Based On Local Patterns Of Viral Circulation, Wladimir J. Alonso, Christine Yu, Cecile Viboud, Stephanie A. Richard, Cynthia Schuck-Paim, Lone Simonsen, Wyller A. Mello, Mark A. Miller

Global Health Faculty Publications

Both the Northern and the Southern Hemisphere annual WHO influenza vaccine recommendations are designed to ensure vaccine delivery before the winter-time peak of viral circulation in each hemisphere. However, influenza seasonal patterns are highly diverse in tropical countries and may be out of phase with the WHO recommendations for their respective hemisphere. We modelled the peak timing of influenza activity for 125 countries using laboratory-based surveillance data from the WHO’s FLUNET database and compared it with the influenza hemispheric recommendations in place. Influenza vaccine recommendations for respectively 25% and 39% of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere countries were out of …

Detecting Signals Of Seasonal Influenza Severity Through Age Dynamics, Elizabeth C Lee, Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Farid Khan, Shweta Bansal

Global Health Faculty Publications

BACKGROUND: Measures of population-level influenza severity are important for public health planning, but estimates are often based on case-fatality and case-hospitalization risks, which require multiple data sources, are prone to surveillance biases, and are typically unavailable in the early stages of an outbreak. To address the limitations of traditional indicators, we propose a novel severity index based on influenza age dynamics estimated from routine physician diagnosis data that can be used retrospectively and for early warning.

METHODS: We developed a quantitative 'ground truth' severity benchmark that synthesizes multiple traditional severity indicators from publicly available influenza surveillance data in the United …