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Full-Text Articles in Epidemiology
Modeling An Infection Outbreak With Quarantine: The Sibkr Model, Mikenna Dew, Amanda Langosch, Theadora Baker-Wallerstein
Modeling An Infection Outbreak With Quarantine: The Sibkr Model, Mikenna Dew, Amanda Langosch, Theadora Baker-Wallerstein
Rose-Hulman Undergraduate Mathematics Journal
Influenza is a respiratory infection that places a substantial burden in the world population each year. In this project, we study and interpret a data set from a flu outbreak in a British boarding school in 1978 with mathematical modeling. First, we propose a generalization of the SIR model based on the quarantine measure in place and establish the long-time behavior of the model. By analyzing the model mathematically, we determine the analytic formulas of the basic reproduction number, the long-time limit of solutions, and the maximum number of infection population. Moreover, we estimate the parameters of the model based …
Predictive Power Of Wastewater For Nowcasting Infectious Disease Transmission: A Retrospective Case Study Of Five Sewershed Areas In Louisville, Kentucky, Fayette Klaassen, Rochelle H. Holm, Ted Smith, Ted Cohen, Aruni Bhatnagar, Nicolas A. Menzies
Predictive Power Of Wastewater For Nowcasting Infectious Disease Transmission: A Retrospective Case Study Of Five Sewershed Areas In Louisville, Kentucky, Fayette Klaassen, Rochelle H. Holm, Ted Smith, Ted Cohen, Aruni Bhatnagar, Nicolas A. Menzies
Faculty Scholarship
Background: Epidemiological nowcasting traditionally relies on count surveillance data. The availability and quality of such count data may vary over time, limiting representation of true infections. Wastewater data correlates with traditional surveillance data and may provide additional value for nowcasting disease trends. Methods: We obtained SARS-CoV-2 case, death, wastewater, and serosurvey data for Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA), between August 2020 and March 2021, and parameterized an existing nowcasting model using combinations of these data. We assessed the predictive performance and variability at the sewershed level and compared the effects of adding or replacing wastewater data to case and death reports. …