Epidemiology Commons^™

Building Up A Genomic Surveillance Platform For Sars-Cov-2 In The Middle Of A Pandemic: A True North-South Collaboration, Waqasuddin Khan, Furqan Kabir, Samiah Kanwar, Fatima Aziz, Sahrish Muneer, Adil Kalam, Mehdia Ali, Nadia Ansari, Fyezah Jehan, Muhammad Imran Nisar

Department of Paediatrics and Child Health

Next-generation sequencing technology has revolutionised pathogen surveillance over the last two decades. However, the benefits are not equitably distributed, with developing countries lagging far behind in acquiring the required technology and analytical capacity. Recent declines in the cost associated with sequencing-equipment and running consumables have created an opportunity for broader adoption. During the COVID-19 pandemic, rapid diagnostics development and DNA sequencing revolutionised the ability to diagnose and sequence SARS-CoV-2 rapidly. Socioeconomic inequalities substantially impact the ability to sequence SARS-CoV-2 strains and undermine a developing country's pandemic preparedness. Low- and middle-income countries face additional challenges in establishing, maintaining and expanding genomic …

Informing Healthcare Operations With Integrated Pathology, Clinical, And Epidemiology Data: Lessons From A Single Institution In Kenya During Covid-19 Waves, Allan Njau, Jemimah Kimeu, Jaimini Gohil, David Nganga

Pathology, East Africa

Pathology, clinical care teams, and public health experts often operate in silos. We hypothesized that large data sets from laboratories when integrated with other healthcare data can provide evidence that can be used to optimize planning for healthcare needs, often driven by health-seeking or delivery behavior. From the hospital information system, we extracted raw data from tests performed from 2019 to 2021, prescription drug usage, and admission patterns from pharmacy and nursing departments during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya (March 2020 to December 2021). Proportions and rates were calculated. Regression models were created, and a t-test for differences between …

Trends In Premature Mortality From Acute Myocardial Infarction In The United States, 1999 To 2019, Sourbha S. Dani, Ahmad N. Lone, Zulqarnain Javed, Muhammad S. Khan, Muhammad Zia Khan, Edo Kaluski, Salim S. Virani, Michael D. Shapiro, Miguel Cainzos‐Achirica, Khurram Nasir

Office of the Provost

Pagination are not provided by the author/publisher. This work was published before the author joined Aga Khan University.

Anal Human Papillomavirus Infection Among Men Who Have Sex With Men And Transgender Women Living With And Without Hiv In Pakistan: Findings From A Cross-Sectional Study, Muslima Ejaz, Soren Andersson, Salma Batool, Tazeen Saeed Ali, Anna Mia Ekström

Community Health Sciences

Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of infection, genotypes and risk factors for human papillomavirus (HPV) among men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women living with and without HIV in Pakistan. Anal infection with HPV is very common worldwide among MSM, particularly among MSM living with HIV. The high prevalence of HIV among MSM and male-to-female transgendered individuals in Pakistan is a significant health concern since access to screening and health-seeking is often delayed in this stigmatised key population.
Design: This cross-sectional study was conducted between March 2016 and November 2017.
Participants, …

Association Of Maternal Prenatal Selenium Concentration And Preterm Birth: A Multicountry Meta-Analysis, Nagendra Monangi, Huan Xu, Waqasuddin Khan, Furqan Kabir, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Aneeta Hotwani, Usma Mehmood, Ambreen Nizar, Javairia Khalid, Fyezah Jehan

Department of Paediatrics and Child Health

Background: Selenium (Se), an essential trace mineral, has been implicated in preterm birth (PTB). We aimed to determine the association of maternal Se concentrations during pregnancy with PTB risk and gestational duration in a large number of samples collected from diverse populations.
Methods: Gestational duration data and maternal plasma or serum samples of 9946 singleton live births were obtained from 17 geographically diverse study cohorts. Maternal Se concentrations were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry analysis. The associations between maternal Se with PTB and gestational duration were analysed using logistic and linear regressions. The results were then combined using …

The Role Of Interspecies Recombination In The Evolution Of Antibiotic-Resistant Pneumococci, Joshua C. D'Aeth, Mark Pg Van Der Linden, Lesley Mcgee, Herminia De Lencastre, Paul Turner, Jae-Hoon Song, Stephanie W. Lo, Rebecca A. Gladstone, Gps Consortium, Sadia Shakoor

Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine

Multidrug-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae emerge through the modification of core genome loci by interspecies homologous recombinations, and acquisition of gene cassettes. Both occurred in the otherwise contrasting histories of the antibiotic-resistant S. pneumoniae lineages PMEN3 and PMEN9. A single PMEN3 clade spread globally, evading vaccine-induced immunity through frequent serotype switching, whereas locally circulating PMEN9 clades independently gained resistance. Both lineages repeatedly integrated Tn916-type and Tn1207.1-type elements, conferring tetracycline and macrolide resistance, respectively, through homologous recombination importing sequences originating in other species. A species-wide dataset found over 100 instances of such interspecific acquisitions of resistance cassettes and flanking …

Burden Of Transport-Related Injuries In The Eastern Mediterranean Region: A Systematic Analysis For The Global Burden Of Disease Study 2017, Gbd 2017 Emr Transport Injuries Collaborators, Saeid Safiri, Mark J M. Sullman, Timo Lajunen, Tetiana Hill, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Farshad Farzadfar, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Zulfiqar Ahmed Bhutta

Centre of Excellence in Women and Child Health

Background: Transport-related injuries (TIs) are a substantial public health concern for all regions of the world. The present study quantified the burden of TIs and deaths in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) in 2017 by sex and age.
Methods: TIs and deaths were estimated by age, sex, country, and year using Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) and DisMod-MR 2.1. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which quantify the total burden of years lost due to premature death or disability, were also estimated per 100000 population. All estimates were reported along with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).
Results: In 2017, there …

Heterogeneous Contributions Of Change In Population Distribution Of Body Mass Index To Change In Obesity And Underweight, Ncd Risk Factor Collaboration (Ncd-Risc), Maria Lc Iurilli, Bin Zhou, James E. Bennett, Rodrigo M. Carrillo-Larco, Marisa K. Sophiea, Andrea Rodriguez-Martinez, Honor Bixby, Bethlehem D. Solomon, Zulfiqar Ahmed Bhutta

Woman and Child Health

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape …

Incidence And Pathophysiology Of Diabetes In South Asian Adults Living In India And Pakistan Compared With Us Blacks And Whites, K M Venkat Naraya, Dimple Kondal, Natalie Daya, Unjali P. Gujral, Deepa Mohan, Shivani A. Patel, Roopa Shivashankar, Ranjit Mohan Anjana, Lisa R. Staimez, Muhammad Masood Kadir

Community Health Sciences

Introduction: We compared diabetes incidence in South Asians aged ≥45 years in urban India (Chennai and Delhi) and Pakistan (Karachi), two low-income and middle-income countries undergoing rapid transition, with blacks and whites in the US, a high-income country.
Research design and methods: We computed age-specific, sex-specific and body mass index (BMI)-specific diabetes incidence from the prospective Center for Cardiometabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia Study (n=3136) and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (blacks, n=3059; whites, n=9924). We assessed factors associated with incident diabetes using Cox proportional hazards regression.
Results: South Asians have lower BMI and waist circumference than blacks …

A Surrogate Frax Model For Pakistan, G Naureen, H Johansson, Romaina Iqbal, Lena Jafri, Aysha Habib Khan, Masood Umer, E Liu, L Vandenput, M Lorentzon, N C. Harvey, E V. Mccloskey, J A. Kanis

Community Health Sciences

A surrogate FRAX® model for Pakistan has been constructed using age-specific hip fracture rates for Indians living in Singapore and age-specific mortality rates from Pakistan.
Introduction: FRAX models are frequently requested for countries with little or no data on the incidence of hip fracture. In such circumstances, the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation have recommended the development of a surrogate FRAX model, based on country-specific mortality data but using fracture data from a country, usually within the region, where fracture rates are considered to be representative of the index country.
Objective: This paper describes the development …

Antimicrobial Resistance And Covid-19: Intersections And Implications, Gwenan M. Knight, Rebecca E. Glover, C Finn Mcquaid, Ioana D. Olaru, Karin Gallandat, Quentin J. Leclerc, Naomi M. Fuller, Sam J. Willcocks, Rumina Hasan, Esther Van Kleef, Clare Ir Chandler

Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine

Before the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic began, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) was among the top priorities for global public health. Already a complex challenge, AMR now needs to be addressed in a changing healthcare landscape. Here, we analyse how changes due to COVID-19 in terms of antimicrobial usage, infection prevention, and health systems affect the emergence, transmission, and burden of AMR. Increased hand hygiene, decreased international travel, and decreased elective hospital procedures may reduce AMR pathogen selection and spread in the short term. However, the opposite effects may be seen if antibiotics are more widely used as standard healthcare pathways break …

Associations Of Cereal Grains Intake With Cardiovascular Disease And Mortality Across 21 Countries In Prospective Urban And Rural Epidemiology Study: Prospective Cohort Study, Sumathi Swaminathan, Mahshid Dehghan, John Michael Raj, Tinku Thomas, Sumathy Rangarajan, David Jenkins, Prem Mony, Viswanathan Mohan, Scott A. Lear, Romaina Iqbal

Community Health Sciences

Objective: To evaluate the association between intakes of refined grains, whole grains, and white rice with cardiovascular disease, total mortality, blood lipids, and blood pressure in the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study.
Design: Prospective cohort study.
Setting: PURE study in 21 countries.
Participants: 148 858 participants with median follow-up of 9.5 years.
Exposures: Country specific validated food frequency questionnaires were used to assess intakes of refined grains, whole grains, and white rice.
Main outcome measure: Composite of mortality or major cardiovascular events (defined as death from cardiovascular causes, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure). Hazard ratios were …

Association Between Duration Of Residence And Prevalence Of Type 2 Diabetes Among Male South Asian Expatriate Workers In The United Arab Emirates: A Cross-Sectional Study, Syed Mahboob Shah, Lindsay M. Jaacks, Fatima Al-Maskari, Juma Al-Kaabi, Faisal Aziz, Elpidoforos Soteriades, Tom Loney, Hamed Farooqi, Anjum Memon, Raghib Ali

Department of Family Medicine

Expatriates account for about 80% of the total population in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This study aimed to evaluate the hypothesis that prevalence of type 2 diabetes in male South Asian expatriates increases with increased length of residence in the UAE.
Design, settings and participants: This cross-sectional study recruited a representative sample (n=1375) of male South Asian expatriates aged ≥18 years in Al Ain, UAE. Sociodemographic, anthropometric and lifestyle data were obtained using a pilot-tested adapted version of the WHO STEPS instrument.
Main outcome measures: Duration of residence was used as a marker for acculturation. Type 2 diabetes was …

Availability And Affordability Of Medicines And Cardiovascular Outcomes In 21 High-Income, Middle-Income And Low-Income Countries, Clara Kayei Chow, Tu Ngoc Nguyen, Simone Marschner, Rafael Diaz, Omar Rahman, Alvaro Avezum, Scott A. Lear, Koon Teo, Karen E. Yeates, Khawar Kazmi

Section of Cardiology

Objectives: We aimed to examine the relationship between access to medicine for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) among people at high risk of CVD in high-income countries (HICs), upper and lower middle-income countries (UMICs, LMICs) and low-income countries (LICs) participating in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study.
Methods: We defined high CVD risk as the presence of any of the following: hypertension, coronary artery disease, stroke, smoker, diabetes or age >55 years. Availability and affordability of blood pressure lowering drugs, antiplatelets and statins were obtained from pharmacies. Participants were categorised: group 1-all three drug types …

Burden Of Injury Along The Development Spectrum: Associations Between The Socio-Demographic Index And Disability-Adjusted Life Year Estimates From The Global Burden Of Disease Study 2017, Juanita A. Haagsma, Spencer L. James, Chris D. Castle, Zachary V. Dingels, Jack T. Fox, Erin B. Hamilton, Zichen Liu, Lydia R. Lucchesi, Nicholas L S. Roberts, Zulfiqar Ahmed Bhutta

Woman and Child Health

Background: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.
Methods: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of …

A Systematic Review Of Epidemiological Patterns And Proposed Interventions To Address Pediatric Burns In Nigeria, Srikanta Banerjee, Constance Shumba

School of Nursing & Midwifery, East Africa

Background: Unintentional injuries from burns comprise a significant proportion of public health morbidity in Nigeria. In order to understand the type and impact of burns on youth in Low-and-Middle-Income countries, the epidemiology of burns must be adequately assessed.

Methods: This review describes the epidemiological patterns of burn occurrences in the pediatric populations and pro- poses interventions using the Haddon Matrix to address injuries in specific populations in Nigeria. A literature search was conducted using the Proquest, CINAHL, and PubMed databases at the Johns Hopkins University library (January 1, 1990 to August 14, 2018), on burns or thermal injury …

Associations Of Sickness Absence For Pain In The Low Back, Neck And Shoulders With Wider Propensity To Pain, David Coggon, Georgia Ntani, Karen Walker-Bone, Vanda E. Felli, Raul Harari, Lope H. Barrero, Sarah A. Felknor, Marianela Rojas, Anna Cattrell, Muhammad Masood Kadir

Community Health Sciences

Objectives: To explore the association of sickness absence ascribed to pain at specific anatomical sites with wider propensity to musculoskeletal pain.
Methods: As part of the CUPID (Cultural and Psychosocial Influences on Disability) study, potential risk factors for sickness absence from musculoskeletal pain were determined for 11 922 participants from 45 occupational groups in 18 countries. After approximately 14 months, 9119 (78%) provided follow-up information about sickness in the past month because of musculoskeletal pain, including 8610 who were still in the same job. Associations with absence for pain at specific anatomical sites were assessed by logistic regression and summarised …

Epidemiology Of Hpv Genotypes Among Hiv Positive Women In Kenya: A Systematic Review And Meta-Analysis, Sonia Menon, Aibibula Wusiman, Marie Claude Boily, Mbabazi Kariisa, Hillary Mabeya, Stanley Luchters, Frode Forland, Rodolfo Rossi, Steven Callens, Davy Vanden Broeck

Population Health, East Africa

Background: There is a scarcity of data on the distribution of human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes in the HIV positive population and in invasive cervical cancer (ICC) in Kenya. This may be different from genotypes found in abnormal cytology. Yet, with the advent of preventive HPV vaccines that target HPV 16 and 18, and the nonavalent vaccine targeting 90% of all ICC cases, such HPV genotype distribution data are indispensable for predicting the impact of vaccination and HPV screening on prevention. Even with a successful vaccination program, vaccinated women will still require screening to detect those who will develop ICC from …

The Efficacy Of Spirometry As A Screening Tool In Detection Of Air Flow Obstruction, Nabeel Manzar, A. Suleman Haque, Bushra Manzar, Muhammad Irfan

Section of Pulmonary & Critical Care

Background/Objectives: In developing countries, spirometry has not been considered a part of routine medical check-up. The purpose of the study was to establish the usefulness of spirometry as a primary screening tool in detecting air flow obstruction (AFO) during routine medical check-up (RMC). Methods: This was a hospital based, retrospective, non-randomized case series study of 3696 participants, who presented to hospital for routine medical check-up. All subjects were assisted at the Pulmonary Medicine Department, from January 2003 till December 2008 who, having met other inclusion criteria, underwent spirometry. Data were analyzed using proportion, group means, standard deviations and …

Cancer Esophagus Karachi 1995-2002:Epidemiology, Risk Factors And Trends, Y. Bhurgri, N. Faridi, L. A.G. Kazi, S. K. Ali, H. Bhurgri, A. Usman, J. Malik, A. Bhurgri, R. Ahmed, S. Muzaffar, N. Kayani, Shahid Pervez, S. H. Hasan

Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine

Objective: To study the trends of cancer esophagus in Karachi South during 1995-2002 and identify risk factors.

Methods: Incident esophageal cancer cases recorded at the Karachi Cancer Registry for Karachi South, during 1st January 1995 to 31st December 2003 were reviewed. For maximum completion of data, incident cases registered from 1st January 1995 to 31st December 2002 were included for final analyses.

Results: The Age Standardized Incidence Rates (ASIRs) of cancer esophagus in Karachi South for males were 6.5/100,000 (1995-1997) and 6.4/100,000 (1998-2002). In females the observed rates were 7.0/100,000 (1995-1997) and 8.6/100,000 (1998-2002).

Conclusion: In the moderately high incidence, …