Epidemiology Commons^™

Childhood Mortality During And After Acute Illness In Africa And South Asia: A Prospective Cohort Study, Childhood Acute Illness And Nutrition (Chain) Network, Abdoulaye Hama Diallo, Abu Sadat Mohammad Sayeem Bin Shahid, Ali Fazal Khan, Ali Faisal Saleem, Benson O. Singa, Blaise Siezanga Gnoumou, Caroline Tigoi, Syed Asad Ali, Zaubina Kazi

Department of Paediatrics and Child Health

Background: Mortality among children with acute illness in low-income and middle-income settings remains unacceptably high and the importance of post-discharge mortality is increasingly recognised. We aimed to explore the epidemiology of deaths among young children with acute illness across sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia to inform the development of interventions and improved guidelines.
Methods: In this prospective cohort study, we enrolled children aged 2-23 months with acute illness, stratified by nutritional status defined by anthropometry (ie, no wasting, moderate wasting, or severe wasting or kwashiorkor), who were admitted to one of nine hospitals in six countries across sub-Saharan Africa and …

Systematic Review On Epidemiology, Interventions And Management Of Noncommunicable Diseases In Acute And Emergency Care Settings In Kenya, Christine Ngaruiya, Annrita Kawira, Florence Mali, Faith Kambua, Beatrice Mwangi, Mbatha Wambua, Denise Hersey, Laventa Obare, Rebecca Leff, Benjamin Wachira

Emergency Medicine, East Africa

Introduction: Mortality and morbidity from Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in Africa are expected to worsen if the status quo is maintained. Emergency care settings act as a primary point of entry into the health system for a spectrum of NCD-related illnesses, however, there is a dearth of literature on this population. We conducted a systematic review assessing available evidence on epidemiology, interventions and management of NCDs in acute and emergency care settings in Kenya, the largest economy in East Africa and a medical hub for the continent.

Methods: All searches were run on July 15, 2015 and updated on December 11, …

Molecular Epidemiology Of Hiv-Associated Tuberculosis In Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania: Strain Predominance, Clustering, And Polyclonal Disease, Lisa V. Adams, Barry N. Kreiswirth, Robert D. Arbeit, Hanna Soini, Lillian Mtei, Mecky Matee, Muhammad Bakari, Timothy Lahey, Wendy Wieland-Alter

Dartmouth Scholarship

Molecular typing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis can be used to elucidate the epidemiology of tuberculosis, including the rates of clustering, the frequency of polyclonal disease, and the distribution of genotypic families. We performed IS6110 typing and spoligotyping on M. tuberculosis strains isolated from HIV-infected subjects at baseline or during follow-up in the DarDar Trial in Tanzania and on selected community isolates. Clustering occurred in 203 (74%) of 275 subjects: 124 (80%) of 155 HIV-infected subjects with baseline isolates, 56 (69%) of 81 HIV-infected subjects with endpoint isolates, and 23 (59%) of 39 community controls. Overall, 113 (41%) subjects had an …

Hiv And Concurrent Sexual Partnerships: Modelling The Role Of Coital Dilution, Larry Sawers, Alan G. Isaac, Eileen Stillwaggon

Economics Faculty Publications

Background: The concurrency hypothesis asserts that high prevalence of overlapping sexual partnerships explains extraordinarily high HIV levels in sub-Saharan Africa. Earlier simulation models show that the network effect of concurrency can increase HIV incidence, but those models do not account for the coital dilution effect (nonprimary partnerships have lower coital frequency than primary partnerships).

Methods: We modify the model of Eaton et al (AIDS and Behavior, September 2010) to incorporate coital dilution by assigning lower coital frequencies to non-primary partnerships. We parameterize coital dilution based on the empirical work of Morris et al (PLoS ONE, December …

Concurrent Sexual Partnerships Do Not Explain The Hiv Epidemics In Africa: A Systematic Review Of The Evidence, Larry Sawers, Eileen Stillwaggon

Economics Faculty Publications

The notion that concurrent sexual partnerships are especially common in sub-Saharan Africa and explain the region’s high HIV prevalence is accepted by many as conventional wisdom. In this paper, we evaluate the quantitative and qualitative evidence offered by the principal proponents of the concurrency hypothesis and analyze the mathematical model they use to establish the plausibility of the hypothesis.

We find that research seeking to establish a statistical correlation between concurrency and HIV prevalence either finds no correlation or has important limitations. Furthermore, in order to simulate rapid spread of HIV, mathematical models require unrealistic assumptions about frequency of sexual …

Complexity, Cofactors, And The Failure Of Aids Policy In Africa, Eileen Stillwaggon

Economics Faculty Publications

Global AIDS policy still treats HIV as an exceptional case, abstracting from the context in which infection occurs. Policy is based on a simplistic theory of HIV causation, and evaluated using outdated tools of health economics. Recent calls for a health systems strategy – preventing and treating HIV within a programme of comprehensive health care – have not yet influenced the silo approach of AIDS policy.

Evidence continues to accumulate, showing that multiple factors, such as malnutrition, malaria and helminthes, increase the risk of sexual and vertical transmission of HIV. Moreover, complementary interventions that reduce viral load, improve immune response, …